She sobbed. Hard. When the 97th Academy Award nominations were announced on January 23, 2025, Ariana Grande didn't just "receive news." She experienced a total emotional breakdown in the best way possible.
The image of her as a toddler dressed like Dorothy Gale, which she posted to Instagram right after the nod, said it all. This wasn't just a pop star "doing a movie." This was a theater kid who spent her life studying Judy Garland finally being told by the highest powers in Hollywood that she belonged in the room. She was nominated for Best Supporting Actress for her role as Glinda in Wicked, and honestly, the industry is still talking about it.
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The 2025 Breakthrough
Most people forget how much pressure was on her. Skeptics were everywhere. Could a global pop icon really disappear into a role as iconic as the Good Witch?
Well, she did.
The Academy recognized her alongside heavy hitters like Felicity Jones and Isabella Rossellini. While she ultimately lost the trophy to Zoe Saldaña (who swept for Emilia Pérez), the nomination itself changed the trajectory of her career. It moved her from "singer who acts" to "Academy Award-nominated actress." That distinction matters. It’s why her gynecologist and her therapist both called her to congratulate her—a detail she jokingly shared on Jimmy Kimmel Live! that quickly went viral.
Why Wicked Was Different
- Vocal Transformation: She didn't use her "Ariana Grande" voice. She trained for six months before her first audition to find a classical, operatic placement.
- The Comedy: People expected the singing. They didn't necessarily expect her to be the funniest person on screen.
- The Directorial Support: Jon M. Chu took a massive risk casting her, and that 2025 nomination was his vindication.
The 2026 Drama: Can She Do It Again?
We are now in the thick of the 2026 awards season, and the conversation has shifted toward Wicked: For Good. This is where things get messy and complicated.
Ariana is currently back in the conversation for a second consecutive Ariana Grande Oscar nomination. It’s a rare feat. Usually, when an actor plays the same character in a sequel, the Academy ignores them unless it’s a Godfather-level masterpiece.
Critics are split. Some say Wicked: For Good is a bit of a "candy-colored slog" compared to the first part. Others argue that Ariana’s performance in the second half is actually better because it’s more dramatic. In this film, Glinda isn't just a comic relief in a bubble; she’s a woman dealing with political corruption and the loss of her best friend.
The "Same Role" Hurdle
History isn't exactly on her side here.
Think about it. Al Pacino got nominated for Michael Corleone in The Godfather and The Godfather Part II. Cate Blanchett did it for Elizabeth. But those were years apart. Ariana filmed both parts of Wicked at the exact same time.
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Voters are asking: Is this a new performance? Or is it just the second half of the one we already rewarded?
Currently, prediction markets like Kalshi have her at a 53% probability of landing the nod. Her price fluctuates wildly. One day she’s a lock; the next, she’s being "snubbed" in favor of newcomers like Teyana Taylor or the powerhouse ensemble of Sentimental Value.
What the Experts Are Missing
The biggest misconception right now is that she’s a "Supporting" actress in the sequel.
Honestly? Wicked: For Good is Glinda’s movie.
While the first film focused on Elphaba’s rise, the second charts Glinda’s moral awakening. There’s a strong argument from industry insiders that Universal should have campaigned her for Best Actress (Lead) this time around. By keeping her in Supporting, they’re playing it safe, hoping for a "make-up" win because she lost last year.
Realities of the 2026 Race
The competition this year is brutal. We aren't looking at a weak field.
- Teyana Taylor is the current frontrunner for One Battle After Another.
- Regina Hall is right there with her.
- Elle Fanning has massive momentum for Sentimental Value.
If Ariana gets in, she’s likely bumping out a veteran or a critical darling. That creates "star fatigue." Some Academy members might feel they’ve already given her the "welcome to Hollywood" nod and want to see her do something else—like the rumored Audrey Hepburn biopic—before they hand her another invitation to the Dolby Theatre.
The Actionable Insight for Fans and Pundits
If you’re tracking the Ariana Grande Oscar nomination cycle, stop looking at the "Pop Star" headlines. Look at the Screen Actors Guild (SAG).
The SAG nominations are the ultimate bellwether. If the actors' union embraces her for For Good, the Academy will likely follow suit. If she misses there, the "sequel slump" might be real.
What you should do next:
Keep a close eye on the "The Girl in the Bubble" performance clips. That song is her "Defying Gravity" moment for the second film. If that song gains traction in the Best Original Song category, it creates a "halo effect" for her acting nomination.
The 98th Academy Award nominations are just around the corner. Whether she makes history with a back-to-back nod or misses out, Ariana Grande has already proven that she isn't just visiting the film industry. She lives here now.