If you’ve ever found yourself scrolling through a heated Twitter thread or watching a documentary and wondered if there are actually more transgender men or transgender women out there, you aren’t alone. It's a question that pops up a lot. People have all kinds of theories. Some think the visibility of trans women in media means they must be the majority. Others look at the recent rise in trans masc visibility on TikTok and guess it's the other way around.
The truth? It’s kind of a toss-up.
For a long time, the "official" word was that trans women vastly outnumbered trans men. Older medical texts from the 90s used to cite ratios like 3:1 or even higher. But as it turns out, those numbers were mostly based on who was showing up at specialized clinics for surgery, not who was actually living their life as a trans person in the real world.
The Numbers Game: What 2026 Data Tells Us
Recent data has basically flipped those old assumptions on their head. According to the latest 2025-2026 updates from the Williams Institute at UCLA, the split between trans men and trans women in the United States is nearly identical.
They estimate there are about 2.8 million people in the U.S. who identify as transgender. When you break that down among adults, it looks something like this:
- Transgender Men: Roughly 34.2% (about 730,500 people)
- Transgender Women: Roughly 32.7% (about 698,500 people)
- Nonbinary Adults: Roughly 33.1% (about 707,100 people)
Basically, we’re looking at a three-way split. It’s almost a perfect third for each group. If you’re looking for a definitive "winner," trans men currently have a slight edge in the raw data, but honestly, the margin is so slim that most researchers consider it a statistical tie.
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Why Did We Used to Think There Were More Trans Women?
It’s a visibility thing.
Societally, we’ve been more "obsessed" with trans women for decades—often in ways that weren't exactly kind. From 1970s talk shows to modern political debates, trans women have been the primary focus of public scrutiny. This led to a "visibility trap." Because trans women were talked about more, people assumed they existed more.
Trans men, on the other hand, often experienced what researchers call "erasure." Because "passing" (being perceived as a cisgender man) can sometimes happen more quickly for trans men due to the effects of testosterone on the voice and facial hair, many simply blended into society. If you don't know someone is trans, you don't count them in your head.
The "Medical Gatekeeping" Factor
Historically, to even be counted in a study, you usually had to be seeking gender-affirming surgery. Because early transition paths were heavily gatekept by doctors who favored certain "narratives," many trans men didn't seek out those specific clinical paths, or they were simply overlooked by researchers who weren't looking for them.
The Massive Generational Shift
One of the most fascinating things about the current data is how much age matters. If you look at people over 65, the numbers look very different than they do for Gen Z.
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Younger people are much more likely to identify as nonbinary or trans masculine. Among youth aged 13 to 17, nearly 3.3% identify as transgender, which is a huge jump from the 0.8% of adults overall.
Why? It’s not a "trend" in the way critics like to claim. It’s mostly about safety and language. If you grew up in 1960, you might not have had the words "transgender man" to describe how you felt. You just lived your life as a "tomboy" or a "masculine woman" because that was the only box available. Today, kids have the vocabulary. They have the internet. They can see someone like Elliot Page or a creator on their feed and realize, "Oh, that's me."
Beyond the U.S.: Is it the Same Everywhere?
Global stats are a bit messier. Not every country collects census data on gender identity. (Canada was actually the first to do it back in 2021).
In places with less social acceptance, the numbers usually skew toward whoever has the "easiest" time accessing black-market hormones or whoever is being targeted most by the government. In many cultures, "trans woman" is a more established social category (like the Hijra in India or the Fa'afafine in Samoa), while the concept of a "trans man" might not have the same historical visibility.
However, when you look at broad meta-analyses—like the ones published in The Lancet or by the World Professional Association for Transgender Health (WPATH)—the trend is moving toward the same parity we see in the U.S. As soon as the stigma drops, the "hidden" trans men and nonbinary folks start showing up in the data.
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Common Misconceptions to Toss Out
People get really hung up on the "why" behind these numbers, which leads to some pretty weird myths.
- "Trans men are just confused girls." This is a huge talking point in some circles, but the data doesn't support it. Trans men have existed throughout history; they just didn't always have a TikTok account to talk about it.
- "Trans women are more common because of biology." There's no evidence that being assigned male at birth makes you more likely to be trans than being assigned female.
- "The numbers are exploding." The number of out people is growing, but most experts agree the actual prevalence of trans-ness is likely stable. We're just getting better at counting.
What Does This Mean for the Future?
Understanding that there are roughly equal numbers of trans men, trans women, and nonbinary people changes how we look at everything from healthcare to policy.
If a clinic only offers services for trans women, they’re missing two-thirds of the community. If a "women’s college" excludes trans men but includes trans women, they’re making decisions based on old, lopsided data.
Actionable Takeaways
If you're trying to stay informed or support the community, here's the "real talk" version of what to do next:
- Diversify your feed. If you only follow trans women, you're only seeing a third of the story. Look for trans masc and nonbinary creators to get a fuller picture of the community.
- Check the source. When you see a "scary" statistic about a "spike" in trans identities, check if it's from a peer-reviewed source like the Williams Institute or the Census Bureau. Usually, "spikes" are just people finally feeling safe enough to tell the truth on a survey.
- Acknowledge the nonbinary middle. We can't talk about trans men vs. trans women without acknowledging that a massive chunk of the population doesn't fit into either of those buckets. They are a huge, permanent part of the demographic now.
The debate about "who is more common" is mostly a relic of a time when we didn't have good data. Now that we do, the answer is pretty clear: We're all here, in roughly the same numbers, just trying to live our lives.
Next Steps for Staying Informed:
To dig deeper into the actual methodology of these surveys, you can look up the 2023 U.S. Transgender Survey (USTS), which is the largest ever conducted. It provides a breakdown of not just numbers, but the lived experiences of over 92,000 respondents, offering a much more nuanced look at employment, healthcare, and family life than a simple census count ever could. For real-time policy updates, the Human Rights Campaign (HRC) maintains a state-by-state map of how these demographics are being impacted by current legislation.