You’ve seen the screenshots. Every year, right around the time the first Thursday of the NCAA Tournament wraps up, someone on social media starts screaming about their "flawless" picks. They’ve survived the 12-5 upset. They somehow knew Oakland would take down Kentucky. But then Friday happens. Or the Round of 32 happens. Suddenly, the question isn't who will win the title, but is there any perfect brackets left in the entire world?
The short answer is almost always a resounding, heartbreaking "no."
Finding a perfect bracket is like trying to find a specific grain of sand on a beach in a hurricane. Math experts at institutions like Duke or the NCAA’s own data teams will tell you the odds are roughly 1 in 9.2 quintillion if you’re just flipping a coin. If you actually know basketball, those odds "improve" to about 1 in 120 billion. Still, you’re basically more likely to be struck by lightning while winning the Powerball.
Why We Ask if There Are Any Perfect Brackets Left Every Year
The obsession starts because of the "Zero Percent" tracker on the NCAA’s official website. It’s a morbidly fascinating digital clock. Millions of people enter the tournament with dreams of perfection. Within the first six hours of the Round of 64, that number usually gets cut by 90%. By the end of the first full day of games, we are typically down to a fraction of a percentage point.
Think back to 2024. The tournament hadn't even finished its first round before the "perfect" count was decimated. When No. 14 Oakland bounced No. 3 Kentucky, it wasn't just a bracket buster; it was a bracket nuke. That single game eliminated over 95% of the remaining perfect entries across major platforms like ESPN, CBS, and Yahoo. Most people don't realize how fragile a perfect run is. You don't just have to get the "big" games right. You have to nail the 8-9 matchups that are basically toss-ups. You have to predict which mid-major is going to have the game of their lives.
✨ Don't miss: Simona Halep and the Reality of Tennis Player Breast Reduction
Honestly, it’s a miracle anyone stays perfect past the first 20 games. Usually, by the time the Sweet 16 tips off, the number of perfect brackets left is exactly zero.
The Longest Run in History: Greg Nigl’s 2019 Miracle
If you want to know what "close" looks like, you have to talk about Greg Nigl. In 2019, this guy from Columbus, Ohio, did the impossible. He correctly predicted the first 49 games of the NCAA Tournament. Read that again. Forty-nine games. He survived the entire first round. He survived the entire second round. He didn't lose his perfect status until the Sweet 16, when No. 2 Tennessee lost to No. 3 Purdue.
Before Greg, the verified record was much lower. Most years, the last perfect bracket falls somewhere during the first Friday. Nigl’s run was so statistically improbable that it felt like a glitch in the universe. He didn't even realize he was perfect until a reporter called him. Imagine that. You’re just living your life, maybe you forgot to check your phone because of work, and suddenly you’re the most famous person in sports statistics.
His strategy? It wasn't some complex algorithm or a subscription to a high-end scouting service. He just watched the games, followed some basic gut instincts, and got incredibly, historically lucky.
🔗 Read more: NFL Pick 'em Predictions: Why You're Probably Overthinking the Divisional Round
The Math That Kills Your Dreams
Why is it so hard? Well, the tournament is a 63-game gauntlet (excluding the First Four). To understand why the answer to "are there any perfect brackets left" turns to "no" so quickly, you have to look at the compounding probability.
If you have a 70% chance of picking a single game correctly—which is actually a very high success rate for a tournament full of upsets—the chance of getting two in a row right is 49%. By the time you get to 10 games, your odds are less than 3%. Now try doing that 63 times.
The chaos is built into the system. The committee intentionally seeds teams to create parity. You have 18-to-22-year-old kids playing under immense pressure in front of screaming crowds. One sprained ankle, one cold shooting night, or one "hero ball" three-pointer from a kid playing for a school you’ve never heard of, and your bracket is trash.
Common Misconceptions About Perfection
- "The experts do it better": Actually, "chalk" brackets (picking the higher seed every time) usually die faster than "chaos" brackets. A No. 15 seed beats a No. 2 seed roughly 6% of the time. While that sounds rare, it happens often enough that a chalk bracket is guaranteed to fail early.
- "AI will solve it": Every year, data scientists run millions of simulations. Even the most advanced models rarely get through the first weekend unscathed.
- "It's just about the upsets": Nope. It’s about the boring games too. Getting a No. 7 vs No. 10 game wrong is just as fatal as missing a No. 16 over a No. 1.
What Happens When Perfection Dies?
Once the last perfect bracket is gone, the conversation shifts. We stop looking for perfection and start looking for the "Best Finish." Most major pools transition to a points-based system where later games are worth more. This is where the real strategy kicks in. You can have a "red" bracket full of early-round losses but still win your office pool if you correctly predicted the Final Four and the National Champion.
💡 You might also like: Why the Marlins Won World Series Titles Twice and Then Disappeared
In 2023, the tournament was so chaotic (No. 4 UConn, No. 5 San Diego State, No. 9 FAU, and No. 5 Miami in the Final Four) that almost nobody had a "good" bracket, let alone a perfect one. When the dust settled, the top-performing brackets on ESPN were from people who had basically thrown darts at a board.
How to Track Remaining Perfect Brackets in Real-Time
If you’re reading this during the tournament, the best way to see if there are any perfect brackets left is to follow the "NCAA March Madness" official Twitter (X) account or the "Bracket Challenge" tracker on NCAA.com. They aggregate data from all the major providers.
Usually, they’ll post updates like: "Only 12 perfect brackets remain out of 22 million." It’s a countdown to the inevitable.
Interestingly, there’s often a "zombie" bracket that surfaces—someone who claims they have a perfect sheet on a smaller, niche website. Unless it’s verified by a major host like Yahoo, ESPN, or the NCAA, take it with a massive grain of salt. People love to Photoshop these things for five minutes of internet fame.
Practical Steps for Your Next Bracket
Since we know perfection is statistically impossible, how should you actually approach your picks next year? Don't chase the perfect bracket. Chase the "winning" bracket.
- Limit your "Cinderella" picks: Everyone wants to find the next Florida Gulf Coast or Loyola Chicago. But picking more than two double-digit seeds to reach the Sweet 16 is usually a death sentence for your point total.
- Focus on the Final Four: In most scoring systems, the Final Four and the Championship game account for a huge chunk of the total points. If you get the winner right, you can afford to miss a dozen games in the first round.
- Ignore the "Perfect" Hype: Don't tilt. If you lose your perfect status in the first game of the day (looking at you, 2024 Kentucky), don't stop following. The "Best Finish" percentile is a much more realistic and rewarding goal.
- Check the Injuries: Before locking in your picks, check the late-season injury reports. A No. 2 seed losing their starting point guard in the conference tournament is the biggest red flag you can find.
The quest for a perfect bracket is the "White Whale" of sports. We keep hunting it, even though we know how the story ends. The moment the ball tips on that first Thursday, we're all dreamers. By Sunday night, we're all just enthusiasts with a lot of red ink on our screens. But hey, there’s always next year.