You’ve probably seen the photos. Ghostly quiet docks. Empty berths where massive container ships used to tower over the skyline. It’s a stark contrast to the chaotic "shipmageddon" of 2021 and 2022 when 100-plus vessels were stuck idling off the coast of Southern California. Back then, the news was all about delays, skyrocketing prices, and toys not making it in time for Christmas. Now? The narrative has flipped. People are asking: Are the ports really empty?
The short answer is: not exactly, but they sure look different.
If you walk along the Port of Long Beach or Savannah today, you won't see the same frantic pile-up. But "empty" is a loaded word. It implies a lack of trade, a dying economy, or some kind of systemic failure. In reality, what we are seeing is a weird, oscillating shift in how stuff gets moved around the planet. It’s a mix of cooling consumer demand, shifting trade routes, and a massive correction after the most profitable—and painful—years in maritime history.
Why the docks look so quiet compared to the chaos
For two years, the ports were a parking lot. It was a perfect storm. Everyone was stuck at home ordering air fryers and Pelotons with stimulus checks, while COVID-19 was simultaneously knocking out the dockworkers and truck drivers needed to move those goods. That backlog was artificial. It wasn't the "new normal"; it was a fever dream.
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Now, the fever has broken.
According to data from the Marine Exchange of Southern California, the massive queues that once defined the San Pedro Bay have largely vanished. Shipping giants like Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd have seen a stabilization in their schedules. When you see an empty berth today, it often just means the ship actually showed up on time, unloaded its cargo, and left according to the plan. Efficiency looks like emptiness to the untrained eye. If a port is working perfectly, the containers don't sit there long enough for you to take a picture of them.
The "Ghost Ship" phenomenon and blank sailings
There is a sneaky reason why some ports feel like ghost towns, though. It’s called "blank sailings."
Basically, when shipping lines realize there aren't enough orders to fill a massive vessel, they just cancel the trip. They’d rather have a ship sit idle in a cheap harbor in Asia than sail across the Pacific half-empty and lose millions in fuel costs. During the latter half of 2023 and into 2024, carriers have been "blanking" sailings at an aggressive rate to keep freight prices from crashing through the floor.
So, are the ports empty? Sometimes, yes, because the ships simply aren't coming. But that's a strategic choice by the companies, not necessarily a sign that global trade has stopped.
The Great Migration: Moving away from the West Coast
If you’re looking at the Port of Los Angeles and thinking things look a bit thin, you're right. But you're also looking at the wrong map.
For decades, the West Coast was the undisputed king of American imports. Then the labor negotiations started. Importers got spooked by the possibility of strikes and massive shutdowns at the ILWU (International Longshore and Warehouse Union) docks. They didn't want to get burned again. So, what did they do? They moved their business.
- The East Coast surge: Ports like New York/New Jersey and Savannah started eating LA’s lunch.
- The Gulf Coast growth: Houston has become a massive player in the container game.
- The "Just-in-Case" Model: Instead of putting all their eggs in the Southern California basket, companies are now spreading their cargo across four or five different ports.
When you ask if the ports are empty, you have to specify which ports. While the West Coast saw a double-digit percentage drop in volume over certain months in the last year, other gateways were actually seeing record-breaking numbers. It’s not that the stuff isn't coming; it’s just landing in Georgia instead of California.
The consumer hangover and the warehouse problem
Let's talk about your closet. And your garage.
During the pandemic, we bought everything. We front-loaded our consumption. Retailers like Walmart and Target got so worried about the supply chain breaking that they ordered way too much stuff. By the time it arrived, the "vibecession" had hit. Inflation started biting. People stopped buying $800 Lego sets and started spending their money on Taylor Swift tickets and flights to Europe.
This created a massive inventory glut.
Warehouses across the Inland Empire in California were packed to the rafters. Because the warehouses were full, retailers stopped placing new orders. If there are no new orders, there are no containers. If there are no containers, the ports look empty.
Gene Seroka, the Executive Director of the Port of Los Angeles, has been very vocal about this cycle. He’s pointed out that we’re in a "rebalancing" phase. We are working through the mountain of stuff we bought in 2022. Until those warehouse shelves clear out, the docks will continue to look a little sleepy.
Does this mean a recession is coming?
This is the million-dollar question. Shipping is often seen as the "canary in the coal mine" for the global economy.
If people aren't buying, ships aren't moving. If ships aren't moving, the economy is shrinking. Right? Kinda. But it's more complicated now because the service economy is booming while the goods economy is catching its breath. You can't ship a dinner at a restaurant or a massage through a 40-foot container.
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Freight rates have absolutely cratered. At the peak of the madness, shipping a container from China to the US West Coast could cost you $20,000. Now? You might get it for under $2,000. That’s a 90% drop. While that sounds like a disaster for shipping lines, it’s actually a return to the historical norm. The "emptiness" isn't a crash; it’s a return to Earth.
Geopolitics and the "Anything But China" strategy
We also have to look at where the ships are coming from. The "Are the ports empty?" question is tied directly to our relationship with China.
Friend-shoring and near-shoring are the new buzzwords in the C-suite. Companies are moving manufacturing to Vietnam, India, and Mexico. When goods come from Mexico, they don't arrive at a port in a giant ship; they come across the border on a truck or a train.
This shift is fundamentally changing the visual landscape of American logistics. We are seeing a slow, grinding decoupling from the traditional trans-Pacific trade routes. If you're standing on a pier in San Pedro, the world might look empty. If you're standing at a border crossing in Laredo, Texas, it looks like the busiest place on the planet.
The Suez and Panama Canal wildcards
Just when we thought the ports were getting back to a boring, predictable rhythm, the world got weird again.
- The Panama Canal Drought: Low water levels have forced the canal to limit the number of ships passing through. This makes shipping to the East Coast more expensive and slower, potentially pushing some traffic back to those "empty" West Coast ports.
- The Red Sea Crisis: Attacks on shipping vessels have forced major carriers to avoid the Suez Canal entirely, rerouting ships around the Cape of Good Hope.
These disruptions actually "soak up" ship capacity. Because the trips take longer (adding 10-14 days), you need more ships to maintain the same schedule. This has actually created a slight artificial bump in demand for ships, even if consumer demand is lower. It's a bizarre paradox: the world is messier, which makes the shipping industry "busier," even if there isn't more stuff being sold.
Real talk: Is the "Empty Port" narrative a myth?
It's an exaggeration, but it's based on a visible reality.
If you compare today to the absolute peak of the 2021 frenzy, yes, the ports are empty. But if you compare today to 2018 or 2019, we are actually moving a decent amount of cargo. The problem is that our brains are calibrated to the chaos. We think "normal" is a line of 100 ships and containers stacked six-high in a residential neighborhood. That wasn't normal. That was a failure.
What we have now is a fragile stability.
The ports aren't empty of goods; they are empty of friction. And honestly, that’s what you want. You want a port to be a pass-through, not a storage unit. When a port looks busy, it usually means something is wrong. When it looks empty and quiet, it means the trucks are picking up the boxes, the cranes are moving smoothly, and the supply chain is actually doing its job.
What you should actually keep an eye on
If you’re a business owner or just someone worried about the price of milk, don't look at the number of ships in the harbor. Look at these factors instead:
- Inventory-to-Sales Ratios: When this number starts to drop, expect the ports to fill up again as retailers panic-buy to restock.
- Labor Stability: Keep an eye on the East Coast and Gulf Coast port union negotiations. If they sour, those "busy" ports will go quiet very fast.
- The "Linerlytica" Reports: This is where the real nerds track global port congestion and idle fleet numbers.
- Fuel Prices: High bunker fuel costs lead to more blank sailings, which makes ports look emptier than they actually are.
Actionable insights for the current shipping climate
Stop waiting for the "big crash" or the "big boom." We are in the era of the Long Tail Rebalancing. Here is how to navigate it:
For Small Businesses: Now is the time to negotiate. Freight rates are at historic lows compared to the last three years. If you’ve been holding off on importing new inventory because of shipping costs, the window is open. Don't expect it to stay this way forever—geopolitical tensions in the Red Sea could spike rates again at any moment.
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For Consumers: Don't worry about "empty ports" causing shortages. Most of the stuff you want is already in a warehouse somewhere in Ohio or Riverside. If anything, the lack of port congestion means that "Just-in-Time" delivery is actually working again. You might even see more "Made in Mexico" or "Made in Vietnam" labels as the trade routes continue to shift away from the traditional China-to-LA pipeline.
For Investors: The "easy money" in shipping stocks is over. The record-breaking profits of 2021 were a once-in-a-generation fluke. The industry is returning to its roots: a low-margin, high-capital-intensity business that is sensitive to every hiccup in global politics. Watch the "blank sailing" data; it’s the best indicator of how much power the shipping lines actually have over the market.
Ultimately, the ports aren't empty—they're just finally breathing again. The "emptiness" you see is the sound of a global system trying to remember how to function without a constant state of emergency. It's not a sign of the end; it's just the end of the madness.