It is January 18, 2026. If you are looking out a window in San Francisco or Los Angeles today, things might look relatively clear. But asking "are the fires out in California yet" isn't a yes-or-no question anymore. It hasn't been for a long time.
California is currently in its traditional "wet" season. Historically, this is when we all breathe a sigh of relief. The rain hits the Sierra Nevada, the humidity climbs, and the massive, sky-blocking plumes of August and September become a memory. But here is the reality: fire season in the Golden State has basically transitioned into a fire year. While the catastrophic "megafires" that dominate international headlines are currently contained or extinguished, the landscape is never truly fire-free.
Right now, the short answer is that there are no major, out-of-control conflagrations threatening thousands of homes today. However, CAL FIRE (the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection) continues to monitor small ignitions and prescribed burns across the state. In fact, if you see smoke today, it might actually be a good thing.
Why the question "are the fires out in California yet" is so complicated
Most people think of a fire being "out" when the flame is gone. Firefighters look at it differently. They talk about "containment" and "control." Even when a fire is 100% contained, the interior of that burn scar can smolder for months. Sometimes, heat stays buried in the root systems of old-growth trees, deep underground, only to resurface when the wind picks up.
California’s geography creates a weird patchwork of risk. In the north, the dampness of the Pacific Northwest is creeping down, soaking the timber. But in the south? Those Santa Ana winds don't care that it's January. They can whip up a spark in the brush in the middle of winter if the rains haven't been consistent enough.
Honestly, the state is currently in a holding pattern. We had a decent start to the rain cycle this year, which has suppressed the immediate danger. But we’ve seen this movie before. A "dry" January can undo all the progress made in a "wet" December. So, while the immediate answer is mostly "yes," the underlying answer is "only for now."
The shift to the 365-day fire cycle
Experts like Dr. Crystal Kolden, a pyrogeographer, have been shouting from the rooftops about this for years. We used to have a very predictable four-month window of danger. Now, because of shifting climate patterns and the sheer amount of dead fuel in the forests, we are seeing ignitions in months that used to be considered "safe."
Think about the Marshall Fire in Colorado a few years back—it happened in late December. California is facing that same reality. The state's infrastructure is now permanently on edge. CAL FIRE has moved toward a year-round staffing model in many regions because they simply can't afford to lay off crews in the winter anymore.
- Prescribed Burns: These are intentional fires set by professionals to clear out underbrush. You might see smoke from these right now in the Tahoe National Forest or near Yosemite.
- Mop-up Operations: Crews are often still working on the edges of last year’s burn scars, ensuring that "hot spots" don't jump the line.
- Agricultural Burning: Central Valley farmers often burn waste during this window, which can show up on satellite heat maps.
What is happening on the ground right now?
According to the latest incident data from the CAL FIRE dashboard, there are currently zero active "Major Incidents." This is great news. It means the massive resources—the 747 Supertankers and the thousands of out-of-state "strike teams"—have been sent home.
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But "active" is a relative term.
There are dozens of small, localized vegetation fires every single week in California. Most are under ten acres. They get snuffed out by local engines before they ever make the evening news. So, if you're checking the "active fire map" and seeing a few red dots, don't panic. Those are usually localized incidents or the aforementioned controlled burns designed to prevent the next big one.
The role of the 2025-2026 winter storms
The reason the fires are "out" in the traditional sense is thanks to the atmospheric rivers we've seen lately. These massive ribbons of moisture in the sky have dumped significant snowpack in the high elevations.
Snow is the best fire suppressant there is.
It acts as a slow-release water bottle for the forest. As long as that snow stays frozen, the risk of a high-elevation timber fire is near zero. The problem occurs when we get "warm rain" events that melt the snow too early, leaving the mountains dry and crispy by June.
Tracking the smoke: It's not just about the flames
Even if the fires are out in California, the air quality can still be a mess. This is something people often forget. During the winter, "inversion layers" can trap smoke from wood-burning stoves and industrial activity in the valleys.
If you're using an app like PurpleAir or checking AirNow.gov, you might see "Unhealthy" ratings today in places like Fresno or Riverside. That doesn't mean there's a forest fire. It just means the air is stagnant. It's an important distinction to make when you're trying to figure out if it's safe to go for a run or take the kids to the park.
The "Zombie Fires" myth vs. reality
You might have heard of "zombie fires" in the Arctic—fires that burn underground through peat and pop back up in the spring. While California doesn't have much peat, we do have "sleeper fires." Lightning strikes a tree in August, it smolders inside the trunk for months, and then, during a dry spell in January, the tree finally falls over and ignites the surrounding brush.
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It’s rare, but it happens. Firefighters call these "holdovers." It's one of the reasons fire investigators spend so much time hiking through old burn zones even when the snow is on the ground. They are looking for that telltale wisp of smoke coming from a stump.
Preparing for the 2026 peak season
Since the fires are "out" for the moment, this is actually the most critical time for residents. The best time to fix a leaky roof is when it's sunny, right? Same logic applies here.
Most people wait until they see smoke on the horizon to start thinking about "defensible space." That's a mistake. The work you do in January and February determines whether your house survives in August.
- Clear the Gutter Gunk: All those dead leaves from the fall? They are basically kindling. If an ember lands in your gutter in six months, those dry leaves will ignite your roofline in seconds.
- The Five-Foot Rule: Keep the area within five feet of your home's foundation completely clear of combustible materials. No mulch. No woody shrubs. Use gravel or stone instead.
- Vents and Screens: Check your attic vents. You want 1/16th inch metal mesh. This stops embers from being sucked into your attic, which is how most homes actually burn down—it's rarely the wall of flames; it's the ember blizzard that precedes it.
The psychological toll of the fire year
There is a specific kind of "weather anxiety" that Californians have developed. When the wind starts blowing hard and the humidity drops, people get jumpy. You've probably felt it. That feeling of checking the horizon every few minutes.
Psychologists are actually calling this "eco-anxiety" or "fire season PTSD." Because the answer to "are the fires out in California yet" is so often "yes, but only for a few weeks," the state's residents never really get to fully relax.
Community resilience is becoming as important as fire hydrants. Neighbors are forming "Firewise" councils, sharing the cost of wood chippers, and helping elderly residents clear their brush. It’s a collective effort now. The era of "the fire department will save me" is over; there are simply too many fires and not enough trucks. We are in the era of "self-defense" forestry.
Looking ahead: What 2026 holds
Climate models are currently leaning toward a neutral or "La Niña" pattern for the later half of 2026. Usually, La Niña means drier conditions for Southern California. If the spring rains cut off early, we could be looking at a very intense late summer.
But there is a silver lining.
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The state has invested billions—yes, billions with a 'B'—in forest health over the last three years. We are seeing more thinning projects and more fuel breaks being cut around vulnerable mountain towns like Paradise and South Lake Tahoe. These projects don't stop the fires, but they give the firefighters a "hook" to hang their hats on. They create a space where they can actually stand and fight instead of just retreating.
Actionable steps for right now
Don't let the clear skies fool you into complacency. Here is exactly what you should be doing while the fires are out.
First, download the Watch Duty app if you haven't already. It is run by volunteers and former firefighters, and it is almost always faster than the official government alerts. It gives you a real-time look at every "smoke check" and ignition in the state.
Second, check your insurance policy. With the "California Fair Plan" being the only option for many in high-risk zones, you need to make sure your coverage hasn't lapsed or been significantly altered. Many insurers are now requiring specific retrofits (like the vent screens mentioned earlier) to maintain coverage.
Third, sign up for CodeRED or your county’s specific emergency alert system. Your phone's default "Amber Alert" style notifications are good, but the county-level systems are much more granular. They can tell you exactly which street needs to evacuate, which can save your life.
Finally, use this "quiet" time to pack your "Go Bag." You shouldn't be looking for your birth certificate and heirlooms while the sky is orange. Put the essentials in a plastic tub in the garage. If you never need it, great. But if you do, you'll be the person driving away calmly while others are panicking.
The fires are out in California for today. Let's work to make sure that when they inevitably return, we are ready for them. The cycle is relentless, but the human response is getting smarter, faster, and more coordinated every year. Stay vigilant, keep your brush cleared, and enjoy the clean air while it lasts.
The state is currently benefiting from a cold, wet winter pulse, but the underlying drought conditions in many deep-soil layers haven't fully recovered. This means that while surface fires are unlikely in the immediate future, the long-term health of the forests remains a concern. Keep an eye on the "Fuel Moisture" levels reported by local ranger stations; once those numbers dip below 60%, the danger returns, regardless of what the calendar says.
Avoid the trap of thinking that a wet winter means a safe summer. Often, heavy winter rains lead to a "carpet" of fast-growing grasses. When those grasses die and turn brown in July, they become "fine fuels" that ignite instantly and carry fire to the larger trees. In some ways, a wet year followed by a heatwave is more dangerous than a consistently dry year.
Stay informed by following the National Weather Service (NWS) offices in Sacramento, San Francisco, and Los Angeles on social media. They provide "Fire Weather Watches" and "Red Flag Warnings" that are the gold standard for situational awareness.