If you’re checking the lines and asking, are the Chiefs favored to win today, you might be in for a bit of a shock. Honestly, the vibe in Kansas City isn't what it used to be during the dynasty years. Usually, by mid-January, we're talking about Patrick Mahomes hosting another AFC Championship game at Arrowhead. But today, January 15, 2026, the reality is a lot quieter.
The short answer? The Chiefs aren't playing today.
In fact, they aren't playing this weekend at all. After a grueling 2025 campaign that saw them finish at a surprising 6-11, the Kansas City Chiefs missed the playoffs entirely. For a team that once felt like a permanent fixture in the Super Bowl, seeing them OTB (Off The Board) for the divisional round is surreal. It’s the first time in the Mahomes era that the "Kingdom" is watching the postseason from the couch.
Why the Chiefs Aren't Favored (Or Even Playing)
It’s kinda wild how fast things change in the NFL. Just a couple of years ago, they were the "Gold Standard." Today, the betting markets have moved on to teams like the Denver Broncos and the Seattle Seahawks.
If you look at the current NFL bracket for the divisional round starting this Saturday, January 17, the AFC is wide open. The Denver Broncos secured the #1 seed and a first-round bye. They’ll be hosting the Buffalo Bills. Meanwhile, the Houston Texans—who just absolutely dismantled the Steelers 30-6 in the Wild Card round—are heading to New England to face the Patriots.
💡 You might also like: NFL Pick 'em Predictions: Why You're Probably Overthinking the Divisional Round
The Chiefs’ absence is a combination of bad luck and a roster that finally started showing its age. Travis Kelce, though still a legend, saw his production dip to about 56.9 yards per game this past season. Mahomes threw for over 3,500 yards, sure, but the 11 interceptions and lack of a consistent deep threat really hurt them. They finished with a 5-9 record against the spread, which basically means they were overvalued by Vegas for most of the year.
The Betting Landscape Without Kansas City
Since we can't look at "Chiefs favored to win today" lines, let’s look at who is getting the love from oddsmakers right now. The Divisional Round schedule is set, and the spreads are telling a fascinating story:
- Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos: The Broncos are currently home favorites. Playing in the thin air of Mile High in January is a nightmare for any visiting team, even a red-hot Josh Allen.
- Houston Texans at New England Patriots: New England is favored here, mostly because their defense looked like a brick wall against the Chargers last week, winning 16-3.
- San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks: This is the game everyone is talking about. Seattle is the #1 seed in the NFC and currently sits as the betting favorite to win Super Bowl LX.
Honestly, it’s weird not seeing the red and white in these graphics. For bettors, the Chiefs were always a "safe" bet in January. This year, the "smart money" is shifting toward the younger, hungrier rosters in Houston and Seattle.
What Went Wrong in the 2025 Season?
To understand why we aren't seeing the Chiefs favored in any matchups today, you have to look at their turnover margin. They ended the regular season with a -2 turnover margin. You just can’t win at a high level when you’re giving the ball away more than you’re taking it.
📖 Related: Why the Marlins Won World Series Titles Twice and Then Disappeared
The defense, led by George Karlaftis III (who had a solid 6.0 sacks), played well enough to keep them in games, allowing only about 19.1 points per contest. But the offense—the unit we’ve come to expect 30+ points from—stalled out. They only averaged 23.4 points per game. That’s 15th in the league. For Mahomes, that’s basically a career-low in terms of efficiency.
Is the Dynasty Over?
People love to scream "the dynasty is dead" the second a great team hits a speed bump. I wouldn't go that far. They still have the best quarterback on the planet. However, the AFC West has gotten significantly tougher. The Broncos winning the division and taking the #1 seed is a huge power shift.
Vegas currently has the Chiefs' odds to win next year's Super Bowl at +3000. That’s a massive drop from their usual +800 preseason status. It’s not that they’re "bad," it’s just that the rest of the league finally caught up.
Key Dates for the Remainder of the 2026 Playoffs
Even though the Chiefs aren't in the mix, the next few weeks are going to be massive for NFL fans. Here is what the road to Super Bowl LX looks like:
👉 See also: Why Funny Fantasy Football Names Actually Win Leagues
- Divisional Round: January 17–18. This is where the heavy hitters meet.
- Conference Championships: January 25.
- Super Bowl LX: February 8, 2026, at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara.
If you’re looking to place a bet today, keep an eye on the Seahawks (+270) or the Bills (+650). Both teams have shown incredible resilience over the last month.
Moving Forward
While the question of are the Chiefs favored to win today is a "no" simply because they aren't on the field, the off-season for Kansas City starts now. They have some major decisions to make regarding the receiving corps and how to protect Mahomes better next season.
For fans, the best way to stay engaged is to watch the AFC Divisional matchups this weekend. Seeing how the Broncos and Patriots handle the pressure will give us a good idea of who the new kings of the AFC might be. Keep an eye on the injury reports for the Bills and Texans as they head into Saturday—those late-week updates usually swing the spreads by a point or two.
Next Steps for Fans and Bettors
- Check the Saturday Spreads: Look at the Denver vs. Buffalo line on Friday evening. If the wind picks up in Colorado, that Under 44.5 is looking very tempting.
- Monitor Roster Moves: The Chiefs will likely be active in the free-agency market early this year. Watch for any news regarding veteran wide receivers looking for a ring.
- Watch the NFC West Rematch: The 49ers vs. Seahawks game on Saturday night is basically the "real" Super Bowl for many analysts. The winner of that game likely takes it all in February.
The NFL is a cycle. Sometimes you're on top, and sometimes you're watching the divisional round from the sidelines. For the Chiefs, 2026 is about rebuilding the fear factor that made them the most dangerous team in football for nearly a decade.