If you turn on the news today, you'll hear two totally different stories about the southern border. One side claims it's a wide-open floodgate. The other insists that new policies have finally put a lid on the chaos. It’s confusing. Honestly, it’s meant to be. But if we strip away the political shouting matches and look at the raw numbers from U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP), the answer to whether are illegal border crossings down isn't a simple yes or no—it’s a "yes, but it’s complicated."
Numbers change fast. Last year, we saw record-breaking encounters that pushed the system to a breaking point. Then, suddenly, the heat seemed to die down in certain sectors. Why? It wasn't just luck. A mix of aggressive executive actions, shifting migration patterns in the Darien Gap, and increased enforcement from the Mexican government created a temporary lull. But "down" is a relative term when you're comparing 150,000 monthly encounters to 250,000. It’s still a lot of people.
The Reality of the "Dip" in Border Numbers
Earlier this year, the Biden administration rolled out a series of restrictive measures. These weren't just suggestions. They basically shut down asylum processing when the seven-day average of daily encounters hit a specific threshold—2,500 per day. When that happens, the border effectively "closes" to asylum seekers who cross between ports of entry.
Did it work? Well, the data shows a sharp drop immediately following the June 2024 executive order. In fact, by mid-summer, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) reported that encounters between ports of entry had dropped by over 50%. That sounds like a win for the administration. But you’ve gotta look at the fine print. While the "illegal" crossings—the ones happening in the brush or across the river—dipped, the number of people arriving at official ports of entry through the CBP One app remained steady.
Migration isn't a faucet you just turn off. It’s more like a river. If you block one path, the water finds a new way around. We’re seeing more people waiting in Mexico, using legal pathways that didn’t exist three years ago. So, technically, are illegal border crossings down? Yes, specifically the "illegal" part between the fences. But the total volume of people seeking entry into the U.S. is still historically high.
Why Mexico is the Real Gatekeeper
People often forget that the U.S. border doesn't start at the Rio Grande. It starts in southern Mexico and the jungles of Panama. Over the last year, the Mexican government, under pressure from Washington, stepped up its own enforcement. They aren't just letting caravans walk through anymore. They’re busing migrants back to the southern part of their country or deporting them to South America.
This "enforcement by proxy" is a huge reason why the numbers at our actual border look lower. If Mexico stops the flow in Chiapas, we don't see the surge in Eagle Pass. But this is a fragile arrangement. Mexico’s resources aren't infinite. Their political will fluctuates. If they stop the busing programs tomorrow, the U.S. border would likely see a massive spike within weeks. It's a band-aid, not a permanent fix.
The Venezuelan Factor
One of the biggest drivers of border volatility is Venezuela. For a while, we couldn't easily deport people back to Caracas because of diplomatic tensions. This created a "pull factor." Migrants knew that if they made it to the U.S. border, they were likely to be released into the interior while awaiting a court date that might be five years away.
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However, when the U.S. began coordinating with third-party countries to facilitate return flights, the math changed for many families. Word travels fast on WhatsApp. When people in the Darien Gap heard that their cousins were being sent back on a plane, many turned around. Fear of deportation is a powerful deterrent, but it only works if the deportations are actually happening.
Weather, Cartels, and the Seasonal Cycle
We can't ignore the calendar. Border crossings have always been seasonal. It gets hot—dangerously hot. In the middle of July, crossing the Arizona desert is a death sentence. The cartels, who control every single inch of the Mexican side of the border, know this. They manage the flow based on profit and risk.
Sometimes, the cartels hold people back to create a "surge" that overwhelms Border Patrol, allowing them to sneak drugs through a different, unmonitored gap. Other times, they lay low if the Mexican military is conducting raids. To understand if are illegal border crossings down, you have to understand that the "supply" is often controlled by criminal organizations, not just the migrants themselves.
The drop we saw recently happened during some of the most intense heatwaves on record. It’s natural to see a dip when the thermometer hits 110 degrees. The real test comes in the spring and autumn when the weather is mild and the "journey of hope" looks a bit less like a suicide mission.
The Legal Loopholes and the CBP One App
Let’s talk about the app. The CBP One app was supposed to streamline the process. Instead of crossing the river, you schedule an appointment at a port of entry. From the government's perspective, these aren't "illegal" crossings because they happen at an official gate.
Critics argue this is just "legalizing" the same flow. Supporters say it’s the only way to maintain order. If you look at the total number of people entering the country, including those with app appointments, the "downward trend" looks much flatter. We’ve essentially shifted the crowd from the woods to the sidewalk. This makes for better photos—no more images of thousands of people standing under a bridge in Del Rio—but the pressure on city shelters in New York, Chicago, and Denver remains intense.
Courtroom Battles
Everything the executive branch does gets sued. If the numbers are down today, a single judge in Florida or Texas could change that tomorrow by striking down a specific policy. We saw this with Title 42, the health order used during the pandemic. Everyone expected a massive surge when it ended. Surprisingly, the surge didn't happen immediately because the administration replaced it with new, stricter asylum rules. But those rules are constantly under fire from both the left (who say they’re too harsh) and the right (who say they’re a sham).
What This Means for Border Communities
Talk to a rancher in McAllen or a shop owner in El Paso. For them, "down" is a relative term. Even a 40% drop from record highs still leaves them dealing with more foot traffic than they saw a decade ago. The infrastructure in these towns is stretched thin. Schools are crowded. Hospitals are seeing more uninsured patients.
The human cost is also staggering. Even when crossings are down, the number of remains found in the desert often stays high. Why? Because the "legal" paths are full, and the desperate take even more dangerous routes to avoid the increased enforcement. It’s a grim reality that doesn't always show up in a neat CBP spreadsheet.
Actionable Insights and Next Steps
If you are trying to stay informed or are impacted by these trends, don't just look at a single month's headline. Here is how to actually track the situation:
- Monitor the CBP "Encounters" Page: This is the primary source. Look for the "Southwest Land Border" section. Pay attention to the distinction between "Apprehensions" (illegal) and "Inadmissibles" (people at ports of entry).
- Watch the Darien Gap Reports: Panama releases data on how many people are entering the jungle from the south. This is the "early warning system" for the U.S. border. If Panama sees a spike in October, the U.S. will see a spike in November or December.
- Follow Regional News in Mexico: Outlets like El Universal or Reforma often report on Mexican enforcement actions before they hit U.S. mainstream media.
- Check Local NGO Data: Organizations like the Hope Institute or the Kino Border Initiative often have "boots on the ground" data that reflects the reality of who is crossing and why, which can be more nuanced than government stats.
The bottom line is that while are illegal border crossings down in the short term, the fundamental reasons why people leave home—violence, poverty, and political collapse in places like Venezuela and Haiti—haven't changed. Until those "push factors" are addressed, the border will remain a place of constant flux. Numbers will go up, numbers will go down, and the debate will continue to rage. Stay skeptical of anyone claiming a permanent victory or a total disaster. The truth is always somewhere in the middle.