If you turn on the news right now, you’ll hear two completely different stories about the U.S.-Mexico border. One side claims the gates are wide open; the other says enforcement has never been tighter. It’s exhausting. Honestly, trying to find a straight answer to the question are border crossings down feels like chasing a moving target because the "numbers" depend entirely on who is counting and which month they choose to highlight.
Statistics are tricky.
Right now, as we move through early 2026, the data from U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) shows a landscape that looks nothing like the chaotic headlines of 2023 or 2024. But "down" is a relative term. Are they down from the record-shattering peaks of two years ago? Yes, significantly. Are they down compared to the historical averages we saw back in 2012 or 2014? Not even close.
Why everyone is asking: are border crossings down?
The short answer is yes, encounter numbers have dropped from their all-time highs. But that’s a surface-level take. To understand why, you have to look at the massive policy shifts that hit the fan over the last eighteen months. It wasn't just one thing. It was a combination of executive orders, regional cooperation with Mexico, and—honestly, this is the part people forget—the sheer seasonal exhaustion of migration patterns.
Back in late 2023, we were seeing days with over 10,000 encounters. That’s a small city’s worth of people every single day. By mid-2024, following the June executive actions that severely restricted asylum claims when numbers hit a certain threshold, those daily averages started to crater. By the time we hit the current 2026 cycle, the "new normal" settled into a range that is lower than the crisis peaks but still keeps the Border Patrol working at 100% capacity.
People often confuse "encounters" with "crossings." An encounter is when someone is caught or turns themselves in. If someone slips through undetected—what agents call "gotaways"—they don't show up in the primary stat that politicians quote on Sunday morning talk shows.
The Mexico Factor
You can't talk about U.S. border stats without talking about Mexico City. Over the last year, the Mexican government intensified its own enforcement on its southern border with Guatemala and increased internal deportations. Basically, Mexico started doing the "gatekeeping" before people even reached the Rio Grande. When Mexico stops the buses and trains heading north, the numbers in Texas and Arizona drop almost instantly. It’s a fragile ecosystem of cooperation. If that cooperation wavers, the numbers spike again. It's that simple.
The impact of the "Safe Mobility Offices"
One reason are border crossings down is a common search query is that the way people cross has fundamentally shifted. The U.S. government pushed hard for "lawful pathways." This sounds like typical bureaucratic jargon, but it basically means telling migrants: "Stay in your home country, use an app (CBP One), and wait for an appointment."
For thousands of people, this worked.
When you see people waiting at a Port of Entry with a scheduled appointment, they are processed differently than someone swimming across the river in Eagle Pass. These legal processing numbers are often separated from the "illegal crossing" stats in some reports, which can make the border look "quieter" than it actually is. It’s a bit of a shell game with data. The people are still coming; they’re just standing in a different line.
Who is actually coming now?
The demographics have shifted. A few years ago, it was mostly single adults from Mexico. Then it was families from the Northern Triangle (Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador). Now? It’s a global phenomenon. We’re seeing a massive influx of people from Venezuela, Cuba, Nicaragua, and even significantly increased numbers from China and West African nations.
These aren't just people looking for work. Many are fleeing total state collapse. When you have a country like Venezuela where the economy has essentially vaporized, no amount of U.S. border enforcement acts as a perfect deterrent. They’re coming because they feel they have no choice. That desperation makes the numbers "sticky"—they don't drop to zero just because a new fence went up.
Regional variations: It’s not one border
The border is nearly 2,000 miles long. What’s happening in San Diego is rarely what’s happening in the Rio Grande Valley.
- The Tucson Sector: For a long time recently, this was the "hot" zone. Remote, dangerous, and swamped with people.
- Texas (Del Rio and Eagle Pass): This became the face of the political standoff between Governor Greg Abbott and the federal government. The "Steel Curtain" and buoy barriers changed the flow, pushing migrants into more dangerous desert areas.
- California (San Diego): As Texas made it harder to cross, the flow shifted west.
When you ask if crossings are down, the answer might be "Yes in Texas, but No in California." This regional "squeezing the balloon" effect is why the national average can be so misleading. You move the pressure from one spot, and it just pops up somewhere else.
The "Gotaway" Problem
We have to talk about the people we don't catch. Border Patrol technology has improved—drones, sensors, integrated towers—but "gotaways" remain a massive point of contention. In fiscal year 2023, there were hundreds of thousands of documented gotaways. As of 2026, those numbers have dipped slightly alongside the general encounter trend, but they remain a primary concern for national security experts. If the "known" crossings are down, but the "unknown" crossings stay high, the border isn't actually more secure; it’s just more secretive.
Misconceptions about "Open Borders"
The phrase "open borders" is thrown around so much it’s lost all meaning.
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In reality, the border has never been more militarized. There are more agents, more surveillance tech, and more physical barriers than at any point in American history. The reason the numbers stayed high for so long wasn't a lack of walls; it was a lack of processing capacity. The system was designed for 20,000 people a month, and it was hit with 250,000. It broke.
What we are seeing in 2026 is a system that has been "patched." It’s not fixed, but it’s handling the volume better than it did during the post-pandemic surge.
The Role of Smuggling Cartels
Migratory flows are a multi-billion dollar business. Cartels like the Sinaloa and CJNG treat human smuggling like logistics companies. They monitor U.S. policy in real-time. If they see that a certain sector is understaffed or that a new policy allows for easier parole, they pivot their "inventory" (people) to that location.
Part of the reason are border crossings down right now is that the "cost" of crossing has gone up. Cartels are charging upwards of $10,000 to $15,000 per person. For many families, that price tag has become a barrier in itself, especially as the U.S. has increased the speed of "expedited removal" (fancy talk for quick deportations).
Hard Truths and Economic Realities
There is a weird paradox at play. While the political world wants border crossings to be zero, the American economy is screaming for labor. From construction in Florida to hospitality in Arizona, there’s a massive pull factor. As long as there are jobs that Americans won't do and people abroad willing to risk death to do them, the border will never be "quiet."
The current dip in numbers is likely a "lull" rather than a permanent fix. History shows us that migration comes in waves. We are currently in the trough of a wave, partly due to aggressive enforcement and partly due to a shifting geopolitical landscape in South America.
What the Experts Say
I spoke with several analysts who track these metrics daily. They point to the "Asylum Rule" as the biggest needle-mover. By making it nearly impossible to claim asylum if you crossed illegally between ports of entry, the U.S. effectively stripped away the "legal shield" many migrants were using to stay in the country for years while their cases wound through the backlogged courts.
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But there’s a catch.
If the courts strike down these executive actions—which happens frequently—the numbers will likely skyrocket within 72 hours. The "down" trend is held together by legal Scotch tape and temporary agreements with neighboring countries.
Actionable Insights: How to monitor the situation
If you actually want to know what’s going on without the political spin, you need to look at specific markers. Don't just trust a headline that says "Border in Chaos" or "Border Secure."
- Check the CBP Monthly Operational Reports: These are released around the middle of every month. Look for "Title 8 Encounters" vs. "CBP One Appointments."
- Watch the Mexican Peso: Believe it or not, the economic stability of Mexico is a huge indicator of migration flow. When the Mexican economy dips, crossings usually go up.
- Monitor Judicial Rulings: Keep an eye on the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals. Their rulings on border barriers and asylum rules dictate the flow more than almost anything else.
- Look at "Southbound" Enforcement: If you see reports of Mexico or Panama (the Darien Gap) increasing their military presence, expect U.S. border numbers to drop about three weeks later. That’s the travel time for most migrants.
The reality of 2026 is that border crossings are "down" from the nightmare levels of 2023, but they remain at a high "steady state" that continues to strain local resources in border towns. It’s a managed crisis rather than a solved one. The infrastructure is holding, the policy is stricter, and the immediate pressure has eased—but the underlying reasons why people are moving haven't changed at all.
To stay truly informed, look past the national totals. Focus on the "inadmissible" numbers versus "apprehensions." That’s where the real story of the 2026 border is hidden.
What to do next
If you're looking for the most accurate, real-time data, bypass the news clips and go straight to the source.
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- Visit the CBP (Customs and Border Protection) Stats and Summaries page for the most recent month.
- Compare the current month's "Southwest Land Border Encounters" to the same month from two years ago to see the real trend line.
- Follow local reporters in Eagle Pass, El Paso, and San Diego on social media—they often see the surges days before they hit national news cycles.
- Understand that "encounters" include people who have tried to cross multiple times; "unique encounters" is a more accurate measure of how many individuals are actually coming.
The situation is fluid. "Down" today can mean "up" tomorrow. Being an informed observer means looking at the logistics, not just the politics.