Honestly, if you look at the headlines right now, you’d think the sky was falling or the sun was never setting, depending on which news channel you leave on in the background. But looking at the actual approval ratings for trump as we kick off 2026, the reality is a lot more "middle of the road" and, frankly, a bit weird.
We’re officially one year into the second term. The "honeymoon" period—if you can even call it that for a guy as polarizing as Donald Trump—is long gone. Most people remember he started January 2025 with a decent tailwind, sitting around 47% approval. But man, 2025 was a long year. By the time the December 2025 Gallup polls rolled in, that number had dipped to 36%.
It’s a massive swing.
But here’s the thing: Trump’s numbers have always been a bit of a statistical anomaly. They don’t move like other presidents'. Usually, a big event happens, and a president’s rating shoots up or craters. With Trump, it’s like he has this incredibly high floor and a very low ceiling. He rarely goes above 49%, but he also rarely stays in the 20s for long, even when things get messy.
The 2026 Reality Check: Where the Numbers Sit Today
As of mid-January 2026, the aggregate data from RealClearPolling and individual firms like AP-NORC shows a president stuck in the mud. He’s averaging about 43.4% to 44.3% depending on which tracker you trust.
The "net" approval—basically the math of people who like him versus people who don’t—is sitting at roughly -8.2%. That sounds bad, but in the context of modern American politics, it’s actually "stable."
You've gotta look at the breakdown to see why.
✨ Don't miss: Franklin D Roosevelt Civil Rights Record: Why It Is Way More Complicated Than You Think
Take the partisan divide. It’s not just a gap; it’s a canyon. In recent Gallup data, 84% of Republicans still back him. That’s a drop from the 91% he had a year ago, but it’s still rock-solid loyalty. On the flip side, only about 6% of Democrats approve of the job he’s doing. That 78-point gap is basically the story of America right now.
Why the "Independents" Are the Real Story
If you want to know why the approval ratings for trump took a dive in late 2025, look at the independents. They’re the "swing" factor.
At the start of 2025, Trump was basically break-even with independent voters. But over the last 12 months, his support in this group cratered by about 21 percentage points. Why? It’s not just one thing. It’s a mix of fatigue, the constant headlines about the "Department of Government Efficiency" (DOGE) cuts, and—most importantly—the grocery store.
The "Affordability" Crisis is Killing the Vibe
You can talk about foreign policy or the border all day, but for the average person sitting at their kitchen table in January 2026, it’s about the bills.
Trump’s approval on the economy specifically is at a second-term low. Only 31% to 37% of people think he’s handling it well. That’s wild because the economy was historically his "safe space" in the polls. Even people who hated his tweets used to say, "Well, at least my 401(k) is up."
Not anymore.
🔗 Read more: 39 Carl St and Kevin Lau: What Actually Happened at the Cole Valley Property
Inflation has been a persistent ghost. While the administration points to the "Trump economic boom," the public is looking at the price of eggs. In a weird twist, even though he does "okay" on crime (43%) and immigration (37%), those aren't the things keeping people up at night right now. 66% of Americans say inflation or healthcare is their #1 concern.
On those issues, Trump is underwater. Deep.
The Weird Specifics: From Venezuela to Tariffs
There have been some curveballs lately that haven't helped. The military operations in Venezuela in early January 2026 were a huge gamble. While his base loves the "strongman" image, a recent Quinnipiac poll showed that 70% of voters think the President should seek Congressional approval before taking military action.
Then there are the tariffs.
- 60% of people in Fox News surveys say they don’t like the tariffs.
- Most folks think they’re just making their Amazon orders more expensive.
- It’s one of the few areas where even some of his 2024 voters are starting to squint and say, "Wait, is this helping me?"
Historical Context: Is This Normal?
Kinda, but also no.
If you compare Trump’s 2026 start to other presidents at the same point in their second year (of their first or second term), he’s in the basement with Richard Nixon. Nixon was at about 29% near the end of his fifth year.
💡 You might also like: Effingham County Jail Bookings 72 Hours: What Really Happened
Joe Biden was actually at a similar spot (42.6%) at this point in his term, but the way they got there was different. Biden started high and slowly leaked support. Trump starts at a mid-point, stays there for three years, and then dips when the economy gets shaky.
What Does This Mean for the 2026 Midterms?
Basically, the GOP is sweating.
The midterms are coming up in November 2026, and the "Presidential Cycle" is a real thing. Usually, the party in power loses seats in year two. When a president has sub-40% approval, those losses can be a bloodbath.
We’re already seeing signs. In special elections over the last year, Democrats have been over-performing. If Trump can’t get his approval ratings back up toward 45%, the Republicans are looking at a very high risk of losing the House.
Even within his own party, we're seeing cracks. You have folks like Marjorie Taylor Greene breaking with him over the Epstein files or cost-of-living issues. That kind of "friendly fire" is a direct result of weak poll numbers. When a president is popular, the party stays in line. When he’s at 36%, everybody starts looking out for themselves.
Actionable Insights: How to Read These Polls Without Going Crazy
If you're trying to keep track of where the country is actually headed, don't just look at the "Top Line" number.
- Watch the "Strongly Disapprove" vs. "Strongly Approve" spread. Right now, about 47% of the country strongly disapproves of Trump. That’s a hard wall that makes it very difficult for him to grow his base.
- Focus on the "Right Direction / Wrong Track" metric. Only 37% of people think the country is headed in the right direction. Until that number moves, the approval rating is going to stay stuck.
- Look at the "Affordability" numbers. If inflation doesn't cool off by the summer of 2026, no amount of rallies will save the GOP's numbers in the midterms.
- Ignore the "Outliers." Trump often posts polls on Truth Social showing him at 64%. Unless that poll is from a gold-standard firm like Gallup, Pew, or even Fox News (which has a very solid polling unit), take it with a huge grain of salt.
The bottom line for 2026? Trump is in a defensive crouch. He has his base, but he’s lost the middle. To get them back, he’s going to have to prove that his policies are actually lowering the price of a gallon of milk, not just changing the names of bodies of water or launching operations abroad.
The next six months will tell us if 36% is his new floor, or if he's headed for a Nixon-level collapse. Keep an eye on the "independent" column in the next Quinnipiac release—that’s where the real war is being won or lost.