Honestly, if you’d looked at Applied Digital a year ago, you might’ve seen just another struggling crypto miner trying to pivot. Not anymore. apld stock price today is hovering around $38.21, and the vibe around this company has shifted from "speculative gamble" to "AI infrastructure essential."
It’s been a wild ride this week.
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After dropping a massive second-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings report on January 7, the stock basically went into orbit. We’re talking about a 250% year-over-year revenue explosion. The market opened today, January 13, 2026, with traders still digesting the news that Applied Digital isn't just building sheds for servers—they're locking down "hyperscalers" like they’re the only game in town.
The stock gained roughly 1.4% in the last session, continuing a three-day winning streak that has left short-sellers feeling pretty bruised.
The $16 Billion Elephant in the Room
You can't talk about the price action without mentioning the sheer scale of the contracts. CEO Wes Cummins wasn't kidding when he said the company reached an "inflection point." They’ve secured 600 megawatts (MW) of capacity across their North Dakota campuses.
To put that in perspective, that’s roughly $16 billion in prospective lease revenue over the next 15 years.
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Why the 250% Revenue Jump Matters
Most people see a "250% increase" and assume it's just low-base-effect magic. But the numbers here are real. Revenue hit $126.6 million for the quarter, leaving the analyst consensus of $88 million in the dust.
- Polaris Forge 1: This is where the magic happened. CoreWeave is already using 100 MW, and they’ve got another 300 MW under contract.
- Polaris Forge 2: They just inked a $5 billion deal with a "U.S.-based investment-grade hyperscaler."
- The Pipeline: There’s talk of another 900 MW in "advanced discussions."
If you're wondering why the stock is hitting 52-week highs near $40.20, that’s your answer. The market is starting to price in a future where Applied Digital is a dominant landlord for the AI revolution.
Is it a Tech Stock or a Landlord?
This is where it gets kinda interesting. Applied Digital is actually leaning into the "landlord" side of things. They’re spinning out their cloud computing business and merging it with EKSO Bionics to create a new entity called ChronoScale.
Why? Because they want to be a REIT (Real Estate Investment Trust).
By becoming a REIT, they can focus on what they do best: finding cheap power and building massive data centers. Power is the new gold. In 2026, everyone has the chips, but nobody has the electricity to run them. Applied Digital’s background in Bitcoin mining gave them a weirdly specific expertise in sourcing high-voltage power in places like North Dakota, where the grid actually has room for them.
What Analysts Are Saying Right Now
Wall Street is currently tripping over itself to raise price targets.
B. Riley recently bumped their target to $53. Roth Capital went even higher, suggesting $58. If you look at the average one-year price target, it’s sitting around $44.09. That suggests there’s still some meat on the bone even after the recent surge.
The Bear Case Isn't Dead
Lest we get too carried away, let's be real. This company is still losing money on a GAAP basis. They posted a net loss of $31.2 million this quarter.
Building these "AI factories" is incredibly expensive. They’re sitting on about $2.6 billion in debt. While they have $2.3 billion in cash (thanks to a massive $2.35 billion notes deal), the margin for error is slim. If a major tenant like CoreWeave decides to build their own centers or if power prices in North Dakota spike, the math changes fast.
The stock is also volatile. We saw a nearly 10% swing between high and low just yesterday. This is not a "set it and forget it" index fund. It's a high-conviction, high-risk play on the literal physical foundations of artificial intelligence.
Technicals and the "Smart Money"
If you're looking at the charts for apld stock price today, the 3-month MACD is flashing a buy signal. The short-term moving average is comfortably above the long-term average, which is usually a sign that the momentum isn't just a flash in the pan.
Institutional ownership is also creeping up.
Firms like Nomura and Susquehanna have been adding to their positions. When the big players start loading up on a $10 billion market cap company, it usually creates a floor for the price. Support seems to be firming up around the $37.68 level. If it breaks below that, we might see a retracement to $32, but for now, the bulls are firmly in control.
Actionable Insights for Investors
If you're watching APLD today, here's the reality: the low-hanging fruit has been picked. The 385% gain from early 2025 is in the history books. However, if the company actually hits its goal of $1 billion in Net Operating Income (NOI) within five years, today's price might actually look cheap.
- Watch the RSI: The stock is getting close to "overbought" territory. A cooling-off period wouldn't be a bad thing for long-term health.
- The Hyperscaler Update: Keep an eye out for news regarding that "third hyperscaler" agreement. If they close that 900 MW deal, expect another leg up.
- Monitor the REIT Conversion: If the SEC approves their transition to a REIT, it could open the doors to a whole new class of institutional investors who are required to hold real estate assets.
The bottom line? Applied Digital has successfully transitioned from a crypto side-hustle to a core AI infrastructure play. The volatility is the price of admission.
To manage the risk, look for entries near the $37 support level rather than chasing the daily highs. Pay attention to the broader AI sector sentiment; if Nvidia or Palantir take a hit, APLD usually follows, regardless of how many megawatts they’ve signed in North Dakota.