The leaves are barely starting to turn, yet here we are again, obsessing over a list of numbers that will almost certainly be wrong by Christmas. Honestly, the release of the AP preseason basketball top 25 is less of a scientific ranking and more of a ceremonial "vibes check" for the college hoops world. It’s that time of year where a team's potential—usually fueled by a flashy transfer portal haul or a five-star freshman who hasn't yet realized he’s about to get bullied by a 24-year-old fifth-year senior—outweighs actual on-court evidence.
Purdue walked into this 2025-26 season with the target on their back, snagging that coveted No. 1 spot in the preseason poll. It’s funny, really. Most people spent all summer wondering how they’d look without certain legends, but the voters clearly doubled down on Braden Smith’s ability to run the show.
The AP Preseason Basketball Top 25 Reality Check
If you look back at last year, the preseason poll was... let's say "optimistic." Kansas was sitting at the top, and while they were good, the season didn't exactly end with a confetti shower for the Jayhawks. That’s the thing about the AP preseason basketball top 25; it’s a snapshot of what we think will happen based on roster names.
Take Houston at No. 2 or Florida at No. 3 this preseason. Florida coming off a national title meant they were always going to be top-tier, but the SEC is a meat grinder. You’ve got teams like Alabama and Arkansas (now coached by John Calipari, because 2026 is still weird) lurking in the middle of the pack, ready to ruin someone's Tuesday night in February.
The preseason top ten for 2025-26 looked like this:
- Purdue (The continuity play)
- Houston (Because Kelvin Sampson doesn't believe in losing)
- Florida (The "don't bet against the reigning champs" vote)
- UConn (Dan Hurley’s program is basically a factory at this point)
- St. John’s (The Rick Pitino effect is very, very real)
- Duke (Cooper Flagg hype, obviously)
- Michigan (Dusty May has the honeymoon phase going strong)
- BYU (The AJ Dybantsa era begins)
- Kentucky (Mark Pope’s second year, high expectations)
- Texas Tech (Grant McCasland is quietly building a monster)
Why Duke and St. John’s Moved the Needle
Duke at No. 6 felt low for some, but the voters are getting smarter about "one-and-done" rosters. Cooper Flagg is a generational talent—everyone says it, and the tape usually backs it up—but he’s still a teenager. Putting them behind veteran squads like Houston or Purdue makes a ton of sense if you actually value winning games in November and December.
Then there’s St. John’s at No. 5. Five!
That is the Mike Repole and Rick Pitino power hour. With NIL money flowing through Queens like a broken fire hydrant, the Red Storm managed to assemble a roster that looks like an All-Star team. Seeing them in the top five of the AP preseason basketball top 25 was a massive signal that the Big East is no longer just the "UConn and everyone else" show.
The Big Ten Dominance or Delusion?
The Big Ten ended up with a massive chunk of the rankings. Purdue, Michigan, Michigan State, and even Nebraska found their way into the early conversation. It’s a bit of a recurring theme. The conference always looks like a juggernaut in the preseason because they have these massive fanbases and historic brands.
Whether they actually show up in the Final Four is a different story entirely. Nebraska at No. 10 earlier this season was a "believe it when I see it" moment for a lot of fans, though their undefeated start through January 2026 has since shut most of us up.
Looking Beyond the Top 10
The bottom half of the AP preseason basketball top 25 is usually where the real value lives. Teams like Gonzaga at No. 21 (preseason) always feel like a slap in the face to Mark Few. Does anyone really believe there are 20 teams better than the Zags? Probably not. But the poll likes new toys. They liked UCLA at No. 12 and Louisville at No. 11 because those programs are trying to reclaim their former glory.
The "others receiving votes" category is usually where the eventual Sweet 16 sleepers are hiding. This year, it was teams like Vanderbilt and Arizona—who weren't necessarily the darlings of the October poll but have since rocketed into the top 10 as of mid-January.
How to Use These Rankings Without Losing Your Mind
If you’re a bettor or just a die-hard fan, take the AP preseason basketball top 25 with a massive grain of salt.
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- Ignore the "Blue Blood" Bias: North Carolina and Kansas will almost always be ranked higher than they should be in October. It's just how the system works.
- Watch the Transfer Retention: Teams that kept their core (like Iowa State) usually outperform teams that built a "Super Team" via the portal in the first two months.
- Conference Strength Matters: A No. 15 ranking in the SEC is often better than a No. 8 ranking in a mid-major conference when it comes to tournament readiness.
The current landscape shows Arizona and Iowa State leading the charge, which is a far cry from the Purdue-led rankings we saw when the season tipped off. That’s the beauty of it. The preseason poll gives us something to argue about while we wait for the first whistle.
Wait for the February "Bracket Preview" if you want accuracy. Use the preseason poll if you want to get hyped about a freshman who might end up riding the bench by March.
Next Steps for the Savvy Fan:
Check the "Last 10" splits for teams currently ranked between 15-25. In the 2025-26 cycle, teams like Virginia and Texas Tech are showing much better defensive efficiency than the top-heavy "Preseason Favorites," making them prime candidates for a deep run. Stop looking at the number next to the name and start looking at the adjusted defensive metrics on KenPom or BartTorvik to see who's actually legit.