You're sitting on the couch, wings in hand, watching the NFL Honors in February. They announce the AP NFL Offensive Player of the Year, and suddenly everyone on social media is screaming. "How did he not win MVP instead?" or "It's just a runner-up prize for quarterbacks!" Honestly, it's exhausting.
The AP NFL Offensive Player of the Year (OPOY) is one of the most misunderstood pieces of hardware in professional sports. People treat it like the "Silver Medal" for the Most Valuable Player race. But that's not what it's supposed to be. Not even close.
While the MVP has basically become a "Best Quarterback on a Top Seed" trophy, the OPOY is where the real football junkies look to see who actually broke the game that year. It's about raw, unadulterated production. If a guy goes for 2,000 yards or scores 30 touchdowns, he’s probably taking this home, even if his team went 8-9 and missed the playoffs.
The Saquon Barkley Era and the 2,000-Yard Club
Let's look at what just happened. Saquon Barkley winning the 2024 AP NFL Offensive Player of the Year was a statement.
Moving from the Giants to the Philadelphia Eagles wasn't just a jersey change; it was a career rebirth. He didn't just play well. He became only the ninth player in the history of this league to rush for over 2,000 yards in a single season. Think about that. In a league that has become obsessed with the forward pass, a running back dominated the conversation.
Barkley put up 2,005 rushing yards, which is the eighth-highest mark ever. He also set an Eagles franchise record with 2,283 yards from scrimmage.
The wild part? He did it by being incredibly explosive in the second half of games. He had 1,245 rushing yards in the second half alone. That second-half total by itself would have been enough to rank him in the top ten of all rushers for the entire year. It’s insane.
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But why didn't he win MVP? Because Lamar Jackson or Joe Burrow or whatever quarterback led their team to the #1 seed usually eats that vote up. MVP is about "value" to the standings. OPOY is about the guy who made defensive coordinators lose sleep for 17 straight weeks.
How the Voting Actually Works (It Changed!)
Back in the day, the voting was a bit of a "pick one and move on" affair. Not anymore.
Since 2022, the Associated Press revamped the system. Now, a nationwide panel of 50 sportswriters—people like Troy Aikman, Cris Collinsworth, and other experts who live and breathe this game—rank their top three choices for OPOY. It's a weighted system.
- First-place votes: 5 points
- Second-place votes: 3 points
- Third-place votes: 1 point
This change was huge. It prevents a "consensus" winner from just running away with it if there are three or four guys having historic years. It adds nuance. You've got to be consistently at the top of everyone's ballot to win.
The "Not Just for QBs" Award
If you look at the history, this award is actually way more diverse than the MVP.
Since its inception in 1972 (when Larry Brown took the first one), running backs have actually won it more than quarterbacks. We're talking 26 times for RBs versus 20 for QBs. Wide receivers are finally getting their due lately, too.
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- Justin Jefferson (2022)
- Cooper Kupp (2021)
- Michael Thomas (2019)
- Jerry Rice (1987, 1993)
These guys were statistical monsters. Cooper Kupp’s triple-crown season in 2021 was a work of art. He led the league in receptions, yards, and touchdowns. In the MVP race? He barely got a sniff because quarterbacks have a stranglehold on that. But for AP NFL Offensive Player of the Year, he was the undisputed king.
Multiple Winners and Legends
Only a few humans have managed to win this thing more than twice. Earl Campbell and Marshall Faulk both have three. Faulk’s run from 1999 to 2001 with the "Greatest Show on Turf" Rams was arguably the highest peak any offensive player has ever had. He was a vacuum for the football.
Then you have the elite group of two-time winners:
- Jerry Rice (The GOAT, obviously)
- Barry Sanders (Who somehow made losing yards look cool)
- Terrell Davis (The postseason legend)
- Tom Brady, Drew Brees, and Peyton Manning
Peyton is actually the only guy to win it with two different teams—the Colts in 2004 and the Broncos in 2013.
OPOY vs. MVP: The Great Debate
The biggest misconception is that OPOY is just "MVP Junior."
Basically, the voters try to distinguish the two. If a quarterback has an amazing year but isn't necessarily "carrying" a team to a Super Bowl seed, he might get OPOY while someone else gets MVP.
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Or, more commonly, if a non-QB has a record-breaking season, they "relegate" the QB to the MVP and give the OPOY to the skill position player. It’s a way to spread the wealth. Is it fair? Kinda. Does it make the awards more interesting? Definitely.
In 2011, Drew Brees threw for 5,476 yards. In almost any other year, he’s the MVP. But Aaron Rodgers went 15-1 with a ridiculous efficiency rating. Rodgers took the MVP; Brees took the OPOY. Both were historic, but the OPOY allowed Brees’ volume and record-breaking yardage to be recognized.
What to Watch for Next
If you’re trying to predict who wins this award in the future, don't just look at the standings. Look at the record books.
The AP loves a narrative involving a specific number. Are they chasing 2,000 yards? Are they on pace for 20+ touchdowns? Is a receiver about to break Calvin Johnson’s yardage record?
The AP NFL Offensive Player of the Year is the "Stat King" award. It’s for the player who looked like he was playing a video game while everyone else was playing real life.
Actionable Insights for Fans and Bettors
- Follow the Volume: Look for players who account for more than 30% of their team's total yardage. Saquon Barkley accounted for nearly 35% of the Eagles' output in 2024.
- Ignore the Record: Unlike MVP, a player on a 7-10 team can win OPOY if their individual stats are historic. Don't rule out stars on bad teams.
- Monitor the "New System" Trends: Since the 2022 voting change, look for "consensus" top-three players. A player who is consistently 2nd on every ballot might beat a "polarizing" player who gets some 1st place votes but is left off other ballots entirely.
- Check the Milestone Tracker: If a player is within 200 yards of a major all-time record heading into December, their OPOY odds usually skyrocket regardless of the MVP race.
The next time you're arguing at the sports bar about who the "best" player is, remember that "best" and "most valuable" are two different conversations. The OPOY trophy is there to make sure the "best" doesn't get forgotten just because they don't play quarterback.