The debate never actually ends. You think it does when the confetti falls in February, but then the voting tallies for the AP Most Valuable Player winners & nominees leak, and suddenly everyone is screaming on social media again. It’s the highest individual honor in football. It’s also, quite frankly, a total lightning rod for controversy.
Take the most recent 2024 season. Josh Allen finally climbed the mountain. For years, the Buffalo Bills quarterback was the guy who had the stats but couldn’t quite edge out the "efficient" guys. Then, at the 2025 NFL Honors in New Orleans, he stood on that stage with the trophy. He had 41 total touchdowns. He had the lowest turnover percentage of his career. He literally broke the logic that said he was too reckless to be the league's best.
But look at the vote. It was a razor-thin margin.
Allen finished with 383 points. Lamar Jackson, the 2023 winner, was right there with 362. If three or four voters had swapped their first-place picks, we’d be talking about Lamar’s third MVP instead of Allen’s first. That is how narrow the gap is between legend and "runner-up."
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The Nominees That Get Left in the Dust
People forget that being an MVP finalist is basically like winning a different award entirely. It means you were one of the five best humans on a football field for five months. For the 2024 cycle, the AP Most Valuable Player winners & nominees list wasn't just a quarterback's club, though it usually feels that way.
The finalists were:
- Josh Allen (Winner)
- Lamar Jackson (The 2023 reigning king)
- Saquon Barkley (Who was a monster for the Eagles)
- Joe Burrow (The comeback kid)
- Jared Goff (The engine of the Detroit resurgence)
Barkley is the interesting one here. He won Offensive Player of the Year, but in the MVP race? He was a distant third. It feels a bit unfair, doesn't it? A running back has to basically have a "glitch in the matrix" type of season to actually win the MVP. The last one to do it was Adrian Peterson in 2012. Before that, you’re looking at LaDainian Tomlinson in 2006.
If you aren't throwing for 4,000 yards or accounting for 40 touchdowns, the voters—50 members of the media who cover the league nationally—tend to look past you for the top spot.
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How the Voting Actually Works (It Changed Recently)
It used to be simple. One vote per person. Winner take all.
That changed a couple of years ago. Now, the AP uses a weighted system. Voters rank their top five choices. A first-place vote is worth more than a second, which is worth more than a third, and so on. This is why we get these specific point totals like 383 or 362. It’s designed to prevent a tie, though we’ve had those in the past—Brett Favre and Barry Sanders shared it in '97, and Peyton Manning and Steve McNair did the same in '03.
Honestly, the new system is better. It captures the nuance. It shows that even if Josh Allen won, a huge chunk of the country still thought Lamar Jackson was the most impactful player on the field.
The All-Pro Snub Phenomenon
Here is a weird stat for your next bar argument: Lamar Jackson was the First-Team All-Pro quarterback for the 2024 season, but he didn't win MVP.
How does that happen?
The All-Pro team is voted on by the same group of people. Usually, the First-Team QB is a lock for MVP. But 2024 was a "split-ballot" year. It hasn't happened since 1987, when John Elway won MVP but Joe Montana was the First-Team All-Pro. It happens when the "best" player and the "most valuable" player are seen as two different things. Voters might think Player A had the best season, but Player B's team would have won zero games without him.
A Glance Back at the Winners
If you look at the history of the award, it's a map of NFL eras. You have the Jim Brown dominance in the late 50s. You have the rise of the modern gunslinger with Johnny Unitas. Then the Manning-Brady-Rodgers era, which basically turned the MVP trophy into a permanent resident of their trophy cases.
Peyton Manning still holds the record with five MVPs. Aaron Rodgers has four. Tom Brady, Jim Brown, Brett Favre, and Johnny Unitas all have three.
When we talk about AP Most Valuable Player winners & nominees, we are talking about the "Inner Circle." Josh Allen is in that circle now. Patrick Mahomes is already there with two. Lamar Jackson is there with two.
What the Numbers Tell Us
To win this thing, you usually need a combination of three things:
- The "Narrative": Did you overcome an injury? Did you lead a team that everyone thought would suck?
- The "Threshold": You basically need 35+ touchdowns and a top-two seed in your conference.
- The "Prime Time" Factor: If you play bad in a Monday Night Football game in December, you can kiss the trophy goodbye. Voters have short memories.
In 2024, Josh Allen checked every box. He lost his WR1 in Stefon Diggs. Everyone said the Bills were entering a "rebuild" year. Instead, they went 13-4. Allen became the first player in history with five straight seasons of 40+ total touchdowns. That’s the kind of stuff that forces a voter’s hand.
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Looking Toward the 2025-2026 Race
The cycle is already starting again. As we head into the 2025 season, the usual suspects are at the top of the board. Mahomes is always there. C.J. Stroud is the name everyone is watching to make that "Year 3" leap into the MVP conversation.
But don’t sleep on the defensive guys. It’s been since 1986 (Lawrence Taylor) since a defensive player won. T.J. Watt and Maxx Crosby are constantly in the "nominee" conversation, but they never quite get the hardware.
If you want to track this stuff, keep an eye on the mid-season All-Pro projections. That’s usually where the smoke starts. By the time December hits, the list of five finalists is usually 80% locked in.
The best way to stay ahead of the curve is to look at the betting favorites in August and then see who survives the "December Gauntlet." Injuries usually ruin at least two top-tier candidates every year.
Next Steps for Following the MVP Race:
- Check the "Total Touchdowns" column, not just passing yards. Voters are valuing mobility more than ever.
- Watch the turnover differential. As Josh Allen proved, you don't have to be perfect, but you have to be better than you were last year.
- Follow the AP's official release schedule. Finalists are usually announced in late January, with the winner revealed the Thursday before the Super Bowl.