Honestly, the AP Defensive Player of the Year award is kinda a mess if you try to apply pure logic to it. We love to pretend it’s about stats. We talk about sacks, interceptions, and "forced fumbles" like they're ingredients in a recipe. But if you've been watching the NFL long enough, you know it's actually about a "vibe" that 50 media members get at the end of the season.
Take 2024. Patrick Surtain II—a cornerback for the Denver Broncos—walked away with the hardware. Now, cornerbacks basically never win this thing. Before Pat, the last one was Stephon Gilmore in 2019. Before that? You have to go back to Charles Woodson in 2009. It’s a pass-rusher's world, and we’re all just living in it. Usually, if you don't have 18 sacks, the voters don't even look at your highlights. But Surtain was so lockdown that he basically deleted an entire side of the field. He allowed just 306 yards all season. That’s like... less than 20 yards a game.
The Sack Obsession and Why it Matters
Most people think the AP Defensive Player of the Year is just a "Who had the most sacks?" trophy. For a long time, they weren't wrong. Look at the three-time winners: J.J. Watt, Aaron Donald, and Lawrence Taylor. What do they have in common? They lived in the opponent's backfield.
But things are shifting. Lately, the "advanced stats" crowd has crashed the party. In 2025, even though Myles Garrett broke the NFL single-season sack record with 23, the conversation wasn't just about the number. It was about "pass-rush win rate" and "double-team percentage." Voters are getting smarter, or at least they're trying to. They want to know if a guy is actually dominant or just cleaning up "coverage sacks" because his secondary is elite.
How the Voting Actually Works (It’s New)
The Associated Press changed the rules recently. It used to be a "one-and-done" ballot. You picked one guy, and that was it. Now, they use a weighted system.
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- Voters pick a top five.
- 1st place gets 5 points.
- 2nd place gets 4 points... and so on.
This matters because it prevents a "spoiler" from ruining a great season. It also makes the race much tighter. In the old days, a guy might win with 12 votes while three other guys split the remaining 38. Now, you have to be consistently high on everyone's list to win the AP Defensive Player of the Year.
The "Snub" Hall of Fame
If you want to start a fight in a sports bar, just mention T.J. Watt. The man led the league in sacks three different times and "only" has one DPOY trophy to show for it (2021). Steelers fans will tell you it's a conspiracy. Browns fans will tell you Myles Garrett is just a better "athlete."
The truth is, "voter fatigue" is real. When a guy is great every single year, his "standard" becomes so high that he has to do something superhuman to win again. Aaron Donald suffered from this. He could have won it six times, but the voters eventually got bored and started looking for the next big thing.
Positional Bias is Real
Let's look at the numbers. Since 1971:
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- Linebackers: 17 wins.
- Defensive Ends: 15 wins.
- Defensive Tackles: 10 wins.
- Cornerbacks: 7 wins.
- Safeties: 5 wins.
If you’re a safety, you’re basically invisible unless you have 10 interceptions. Ed Reed (2004) and Troy Polamalu (2010) are the legends of the position, but even they struggled to get the same respect as a guy who just runs fast in a straight line toward the QB. It’s sort of unfair, but that’s the reality of the AP Defensive Player of the Year race.
The 2025/2026 Context
Right now, as we head into the 2026 honors, the landscape is wild. We’ve seen a massive surge in "Interior Defenders" getting love. It’s not just the edge guys anymore. If you can collapse the pocket from the middle, you’re gold. Guys like Will Anderson Jr. are also redefining the "sophomore surge," proving that you don't need five years of experience to be the most feared man on the field.
What You Should Look For Next
Don't just look at the box score. If you want to predict who wins the next AP Defensive Player of the Year, watch the "All-22" film or check out the pressure rates.
Here is what actually moves the needle for the 50 voters:
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- The "Signature" Game: Did the player take over a primetime game? If you have 4 sacks on Monday Night Football, you're halfway there.
- Team Success: It's almost impossible to win this if your team has a losing record. Fair? No. Real? Yes.
- Narrative: Is this a "comeback" story? Is it a young star "taking the torch"? The media loves a story.
If you're tracking the race this year, keep an eye on the Wednesday injury reports and the Wednesday film reviews. The award is usually won in December, not September. Fatigue sets in, and the guys who are still wrecking games in the cold are the ones who get the votes.
Go check the current "Pass Rush Win Rate" leaders on ESPN or Pro Football Focus. If a guy is top three in that category and his team is headed to the playoffs, he’s your frontrunner.
Next Steps for the 2026 Season:
- Monitor the All-Pro List: The AP All-Pro team is usually announced a few weeks before the DPOY. If a player is a "unanimous" All-Pro (like Myles Garrett was recently), they are almost a lock for the trophy.
- Watch Turnover Margins: Interceptions are flashy, but "forced fumbles" are what coaches value. A player who changes the game's momentum manually will always stay in the voter's minds.
- Check the Betting Odds: Honestly, Vegas usually knows before we do. If a player's odds drop from +500 to -200 in one week, something happened on the film that the general public hasn't caught yet.
The AP Defensive Player of the Year isn't just a stat reward—it's the league's way of saying "this guy made offensive coordinators lose sleep." Whether it's a shutdown corner or a trench-warrior, the winner is always the person who broke the game the most.