The narrative around Anthony Richardson is exhausting. One week he's the second coming of Cam Newton, a 244-pound glitch in the NFL’s matrix who can flick a ball 60 yards while falling backward. The next, he’s a "project" that the Indianapolis Colts are supposedly losing patience with.
People love to talk about the 47.7% completion rate from his second year. They point to the bizarre "tired" comment that led to his temporary benching for Joe Flacco in 2024. But if you’re actually watching the tape—and I mean really digging into the mechanics of Shane Steichen’s offense—you realize that Anthony Richardson, the Colts quarterback, is living in a context most fans completely ignore.
He’s basically a Ferrari being driven in a school zone, except the car sometimes stalls because the driver is still learning how to use a manual transmission.
The Freak Accident and the 2025 "Lost" Season
Let’s address the elephant in the room first: the 2025 season has been weird. Like, "resistance band hitting you in the eye" weird. Most people missed the news that Richardson suffered an orbital bone fracture during a pregame warmup accident in October 2025. It sounds like a joke, but it’s the kind of freak luck that has defined his early career.
Before that injury, the Colts did something nobody expected. They started Daniel Jones.
Yeah, that Daniel Jones.
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The move was a shocker during the 2025 training camp. Steichen basically bet on himself, opting for the "safer" veteran to run his RPO-heavy system while Richardson allegedly had the best camp of his life. It’s a move that feels like football purgatory for a guy with Richardson's ceiling. Honestly, it’s frustrating. You’ve got a guy who spent his entire 2025 offseason working with Dr. Tom Gormely—the same guy who refined Brock Purdy's mechanics—only to sit behind a bridge starter.
But here’s the thing: Richardson’s "failure" to win the job wasn't necessarily about him regressing. It was about an organizational panic. General Manager Chris Ballard is in the final year of his contract. The seat is hot. When you’re fighting for your job, you don't always pick the high-ceiling kid; you pick the guy who won't turn the ball over three times in the first quarter.
Why the "Accuracy" Stats are Misleading
If you look at his 2024 stats, 1,814 passing yards, 8 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions look objectively bad. There’s no way to sugarcoat a sub-50% completion rate in the modern NFL.
Or is there?
Richardson’s average depth of target (ADoT) is often astronomical. We're talking 12.9 yards in 2024. For comparison, most "efficient" quarterbacks hover around 7 or 8 yards. Steichen isn't asking Richardson to check it out to the flat. He’s asking him to hunt for Alec Pierce on deep posts and go-routes.
When you swing for the fences every play, your batting average is going to suck.
I talked to a few scouts who noted that Richardson’s footwork actually improved significantly between his rookie year and his second season. His base was wider. He wasn't sailing those "easy" ten-yard outs as often. The problem is the Colts' offensive line had a 28th-ranked pressure rate at points, and Richardson, being the competitor he is, tries to do too much. He scrambles, he takes hits, and he forces throws into windows that don't exist.
The Benching: A Wake-Up Call or a Wound?
Remember the 2024 benching? It was the "tired" game against the Texans. Richardson tapped out for a play because he was winded. The media shredded him. Steichen benched him for Flacco, then brought him back two weeks later against the Jets.
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And man, that Jets game was a glimpse of the future.
Richardson went for 272 yards, two rushing touchdowns, and a game-winner with less than a minute left. He looked relaxed. He looked like he finally understood that he didn't have to be a superhero on every snap.
The issue is that the Colts haven't been able to sustain that "relaxed" version of AR. Between the oblique injury, the back spasms, and now the 2025 orbital fracture, he hasn't had a stretch of six healthy games since... well, basically high school.
The Financial Reality
The Colts are paying Richardson an average of $8.4 million a year through 2027. In NFL terms, that’s a bargain for a starting-caliber QB. His cap hit in 2026 is around $10.8 million.
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This gives Indy a massive window. They have Jonathan Taylor under contract. They have Josh Downs and Michael Pittman Jr. The "bones" of a championship offense are there. But because Richardson hasn't been on the field, the team has been forced into this weird identity crisis, signing guys like Daniel Jones and Philip Rivers (yes, the 2025 comeback version) just to keep the lights on.
What's Next for AR?
Honestly, the 2026 season is the make-or-break moment. No more "project" labels. No more "he's only 23" excuses.
Richardson recently said he’s trying to "master" the offense rather than just "know" it. He wants to be the guy who can stand at the whiteboard and teach the concepts. That’s the mental jump he needs. We know he can run a 4.43. We know he can throw a ball through a brick wall. But can he navigate a disguised Cover-2 look from a Brian Flores defense on 3rd and 8?
The Colts are at a crossroads. If Richardson comes back from this eye injury and can't beat out a veteran in 2026, the Ballard era is over, and AR likely becomes a high-end backup or a reclamation project for another team.
Actionable Insights for Following the Colts This Season
- Watch the ADoT: If Richardson is back on the field, check if his average depth of target drops. A lower ADoT (around 8.5–9.5 yards) actually indicates a better grasp of the offense and a willingness to take the "boring" completions.
- Monitor the Scramble Rate: In 2024, his scramble rate was around 7%. If that spikes, it usually means he isn't trusting his eyes or the protection.
- Pre-Snap Motion: Pay attention to how often the Colts use motion when Richardson is under center. Steichen uses it to give AR "answers" before the snap. If the motion decreases, it means the staff trusts him to read the defense "raw."
Anthony Richardson isn't a bust yet. He’s a high-variance asset in a league that craves consistency. The talent is undeniable, but the availability—and the vision, literally and figuratively—will determine if he’s the face of the franchise or just another "what if" story in Indianapolis.