Wait. Stop. Before you put a single dollar on Anthony Davis MVP odds this season, we need to talk about what just happened in Utah.
If you haven't checked the injury reports this week, things just got messy. Real messy.
Anthony Davis was actually having a monster year. He was averaging 20.4 points, 11.1 rebounds, and nearly 2 blocks a game. He looked like the "Brow" of old, anchor-drilling the defense and feasting in the paint. Then, January 8th happened. A late-game collision with Lauri Markkanen left AD clutching his left hand in visible pain.
Now? The betting markets are in a total tailspin.
The Current State of Anthony Davis MVP Odds
Honestly, his odds have basically fallen off a cliff.
Before the injury, AD was a fringe candidate—not a frontrunner like Nikola Jokic or Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, but he was in that "if the team wins enough" conversation. Now, with ligament damage in his shooting hand and a recovery window that stretches at least six weeks, his MVP campaign is effectively over.
You've got to play 65 games to even qualify for major awards under the current NBA rules.
Davis has only played 29 games so far. Even if he comes back in early March, the math just doesn't work out. He'd need to play every single remaining game perfectly, and even then, he might fall short of the threshold. Vegas knows this. Most books have pulled his individual MVP lines entirely or pushed them into the "astronomical longshot" territory where you're essentially just donating money to the house.
Who is actually leading the race now?
If you were looking for value in the Anthony Davis MVP odds and got burned, you're probably looking for a pivot. Right now, the race is a two-horse sprint with a very loud third runner:
- Nikola Jokic (+140): The Joker is averaging a 30-point triple-double. It’s boring how good he is.
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (+170): He's got the Thunder at 19-1 or something ridiculous. He’s the efficiency king.
- Luka Doncic (+320): Funny enough, Luka is now on the Lakers—the team AD left—and he’s leading the league in scoring at 35.1 PPG.
The Dallas Mavericks Dilemma
The weirdest part of the AD story isn't even the injury; it’s the fact that he’s in Dallas now.
Most fans still associate him with the purple and gold, but his tenure with the Mavericks has been, well, let's call it "complicated." He’s only played 29 games for them over two seasons. When he’s on the floor, he’s elite. The problem is he’s rarely on the floor.
Jason Kidd recently mentioned that the team has to "be smart" about his recovery, which is coach-speak for "we aren't rushing him back just to chase a trophy."
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There are even rumors floating around about a trade before the February 6th deadline. Think about that. We went from talking about Anthony Davis MVP odds to talking about whether he’ll even be on the roster in a month. Shams Charania reported that while surgery isn't immediate, the six-week re-evaluation period puts his return right around the time most teams are gearing up for the playoff push, not individual award campaigning.
The 65-Game Rule is the Real MVP Killer
Let's get technical for a second.
The NBA's collective bargaining agreement (CBA) is ruthless. To be eligible for MVP, Defensive Player of the Year, or All-NBA honors, a player must log at least 20 minutes in 65 games.
- AD has 29 games played.
- There are roughly 40+ games left for Dallas.
- He's out for at least 15-20 of them.
Do the math. It’s impossible.
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Even if he was playing like 1994 Hakeem Olajuwon, the paperwork would disqualify him. This is why the Anthony Davis MVP odds you might see on some offshore sites are a trap. They’re betting on you not knowing the eligibility rules.
Why People Keep Betting on the Brow
So why do we keep doing this? Why do we keep talking about AD in the MVP conversation every October only to see it evaporate by January?
It’s because when he’s healthy, he is arguably the most impactful two-way player in the league.
He can switch onto a guard, block a shot at the rim, and then run the floor for a lob. His defensive impact numbers (even this year) were in the 88th percentile for defensive playmaking. People bet on the talent, not the medical chart. But in the MVP race, availability isn't just "the best ability"—it’s a legal requirement.
What You Should Do Instead
If you’re a Mavs fan or just an AD supporter, the MVP dream is dead for 2026.
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Instead of chasing Anthony Davis MVP odds, look at the "Comeback Player of the Year" markets for next season or focus on the Mavericks' playoff positioning. If AD returns in March and Dallas is in the play-in hunt, his impact on the spread will be massive, even if he doesn't have a trophy to show for it.
The smart move right now? Watch the "Clutch Player of the Year" lines if he returns late. He has a knack for big defensive stops in the final two minutes.
Actionable Insight for Bettors: Stop looking at AD for individual season awards. Instead, track his return-to-play timeline specifically for "Under" bets on Mavs opponents' point totals. When AD plays, the defensive rating of his team usually improves by 4-5 points. That’s where the real value is hidden now. Forget the MVP; watch the defensive impact.