If you’ve been keeping an eye on the Indian stock market lately, you know that Anil Ambani Reliance Power has been a total rollercoaster. One day it’s the "phoenix rising from the ashes" with a zero-debt announcement, and the next, it's getting hit with a forensic audit from SEBI.
It’s messy. It’s dramatic. Honestly, it’s exactly what we’ve come to expect from the younger Ambani brother’s business empire over the last decade.
But for retail investors who saw the stock price double or triple in early 2025, the current reality is a bit of a cold shower. By mid-January 2026, the sentiment has shifted from "multibagger potential" to "regulatory red alert." If you're trying to figure out if this is a genuine turnaround or just another false dawn, we need to look at the numbers and the legal drama that’s unfolding right now.
The Debt-Free Claim: Fact or Marketing?
Back in late 2024 and through much of 2025, the big headline was that Reliance Power was becoming a zero-debt company.
Specifically, their subsidiary, Rosa Power Supply Company, made huge waves by prepaying ₹1,318 crore to Singapore-based Varde Partners. They finished this ahead of schedule in November 2024. For a while, the market loved it. The stock price even clawed its way back toward the ₹70-80 range in mid-2025 as the company claimed it had no outstanding loans from banks or financial institutions.
But here is the thing about being "debt-free" in the Ambani world.
While the bank loans might be cleared, the company’s legal liabilities and "other" financial obligations are a different beast. Even as the company claimed it was standing on solid ground, the Enforcement Directorate (ED) was busy attaching assets worth ₹7,500 crore linked to the group in late 2025.
You see, a company can have a clean balance sheet in terms of bank debt, but if the promoters are embroiled in money laundering probes or "fake bank guarantee" allegations, the market doesn't care about the zero-debt label. They see risk.
SEBI’s Forensic Audit: The January 2026 Bomb
On January 14, 2026, things took a sharp turn for the worse.
Reliance Power informed the stock exchanges that SEBI has initiated a forensic audit. This isn’t just a routine check. A forensic audit is basically the regulator saying, "We think something is hidden in the books, and we’re going to find it."
They are looking for violations of:
- The SEBI Act, 1992
- The Securities Contracts (Regulation) Act, 1956
- The Companies Act, 2013
Basically the trifecta of corporate law. The timing was particularly brutal because it happened right as the company was trying to raise $600 million through Foreign Currency Convertible Bonds (FCCBs) to fund a pivot into renewable energy.
When the news broke, the stock tanked. By January 16, 2026, Anil Ambani Reliance Power shares were hitting 52-week lows, trading around the ₹31-32 mark. That’s a massive drop from the ₹76 highs seen just months earlier.
The Bhutan Solar Project and the Green Pivot
It’s not all doom and gloom, though. If you want to understand why people are still holding this stock, you have to look at Bhutan.
In May 2025, Reliance Power signed a deal to develop a 500 MW solar project in Bhutan. This was a 50:50 joint venture with the Bhutan government’s investment arm. It’s part of a larger plan to build a 2.5 GW solar pipeline.
Anil Ambani is clearly trying to follow the "Green Energy" blueprint that has worked so well for his brother, Mukesh Ambani, and Gautam Adani. The strategy is simple:
- Exit the "dirty" coal business where possible.
- Leverage existing land and infrastructure for solar and Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS).
- Raise capital via FCCBs to fund this transition.
The problem? Green energy requires massive, upfront capital expenditure. And it’s hard to raise $600 million when your CFO has been under ED scrutiny and the regulator is auditing your past three years of filings.
What Most People Get Wrong About Reliance Power
A lot of folks think Reliance Power is just a "penny stock" gamble. That’s a bit of an oversimplification.
The company actually has a massive asset base—nearly ₹111,000 crore as of late 2025. It has an operating capacity of over 5,300 MW. This isn't a shell company. It’s a real utility company with real power plants (like Sasan and Rosa).
However, the "promoter risk" is the heaviest weight on its shoulders. Anil Ambani hasn't been on the board for several years due to SEBI restrictions, but the "Reliance ADAG" brand is inseparable from his personal legal battles.
Interestingly, while retail investors have been getting nervous, some institutional data shows a different story. In the September 2025 quarter, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) actually slightly increased their stake. It’s almost like they’re betting on the assets being more valuable than the management’s reputation.
The "Fake Bank Guarantee" Mess
We can't talk about Anil Ambani Reliance Power without mentioning the SECI drama.
In late 2024, the Solar Energy Corporation of India (SECI) banned Reliance Power from participating in tenders for three years. Why? They alleged the company submitted a fake bank guarantee for a 1,000 MW project.
The ED got involved and eventually arrested former CFO Ashok Kumar Pal and others. The company claims these individuals were acting on their own or were "consultants," but the damage was done. It makes it very hard for a "Power" company to grow when the primary government agency for solar energy has blacklisted them.
Real-World Trading Reality
If you’re looking at the ticker (RPOWER), here’s the current breakdown:
- Book Value: Around ₹37-40 per share.
- Current Price: Roughly ₹32 (as of mid-January 2026).
- P/B Ratio: Trading at roughly 0.8x its book value.
Technically, the stock is "cheap." It's trading below the value of its assets. But "cheap" can stay cheap for a long time if investors are scared of what a forensic audit might uncover.
Actionable Steps for Investors
If you're holding or considering Anil Ambani Reliance Power, you need a plan that isn't based on "hope" or "vibhuti" (luck).
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Watch the SEBI Audit Timeline
Forensic audits usually take 6 to 12 months. Do not expect a quick recovery until the "all clear" is given. If the audit finds a diversion of funds, the stock could drop to single digits. If it finds only minor technical lapses, the "undervalued" narrative will come back fast.
Track the FCCB Approval
The $600 million fundraising is the company’s lifeblood. Check the corporate filings every week. If international lenders back out because of the SEBI audit, the Bhutan project and the solar pivot are essentially dead in the water.
Don’t Over-Allocate
This is a classic "binary" stock. It either goes to ₹100 or it goes to ₹5. Treat it like a high-risk venture capital play, not a core part of your retirement portfolio. The volatility is too high for anything else.
Monitor the Bhutan JV Progress
Real construction on the ground in Bhutan would be the first tangible sign of a turnaround. Watch for updates from the Bhutanese government (Green Digital Private Limited). Government-to-government (G2G) backed projects are harder to derail than private ones.
The bottom line is that Reliance Power is no longer just a power generation company; it’s a legal case study with a solar panel attached to it. The "zero-debt" status gave it a temporary boost, but the ghost of past regulatory issues is proving very difficult to shake off.
Next Steps for You:
- Check the latest BSE/NSE disclosures to see if the company has responded to the January 14 forensic audit notification.
- Verify the specific quarterly results for Q3 FY26 (expected in late January/early February) to see if operational profits are sustaining despite the legal costs.
- Compare RPOWER’s valuation with other "turnaround" power stocks like JP Power or Suzlon to see if the risk-reward ratio actually makes sense.