Andrés Arauz and Guillermo Lasso: What Really Happened to Ecuador

Politics in Ecuador isn't just about voting. It’s about survival, high-stakes drama, and two men who couldn't be more different if they tried. Honestly, when you look at the 2021 showdown between Andrés Arauz and Guillermo Lasso, you aren't just looking at an election. You’re looking at a collision between two completely opposite versions of what a country should be.

One was a young, tech-savvy economist who basically grew up in the shadow of Rafael Correa. The other? A seasoned banker who had been chasing the presidency for a decade. It was the "prodigy" versus the "establishment." And the fallout from that race is still being felt today in every corner of Quito and Guayaquil.

The Night the Polls Were Wrong

Most people expected Andrés Arauz to walk into the Carondelet Palace. He won the first round by a landslide, sitting at nearly 33% while Lasso barely scraped into the runoff by a fraction of a percentage point. For weeks, the narrative was set: the "Citizens' Revolution" was coming back.

Then the runoff happened.

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Guillermo Lasso didn't just win; he pulled off a massive comeback. He finished with 52.5% of the vote compared to Arauz’s 47.5%. How? He did something nobody expected. He started wearing bright red sneakers, talking to TikTok influencers, and—more importantly—he courted the people who hated Correa more than they feared a banker.

It was a narrow victory. 5 points. In the world of politics, that’s a lifetime. Arauz accepted the defeat with a level of grace that surprised his critics, but the divide in the country was already too deep to bridge with a concession speech.

Two Men, Two Economies

The rift between Andrés Arauz and Guillermo Lasso was mostly about the wallet. Arauz was the "money in your pocket" guy. He literally promised to give $1,000 to a million families during his first week in office. His plan was built on using central bank reserves to jumpstart consumption. Critics called it "reckless." Supporters called it "justice."

Lasso? He was the "investment and trade" guy.

He wanted to open up Ecuador to the world. His pitch was simple:

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1. Lower taxes to attract foreign companies.
2. Double oil production.
3. Sign free trade deals with everyone from the U.S. to China.

Lasso’s background as the former CEO of Banco Guayaquil made him the darling of the markets. When he won, Ecuador’s bonds soared. Investors breathed a sigh of relief. But for the average person in the highlands or the Amazon, "market confidence" doesn't put food on the table. That’s where the friction started.

Why the Indigenous Vote Changed Everything

You can't talk about these two without talking about Yaku Pérez. He was the indigenous candidate who nearly beat Lasso for the second-place spot in the first round. When he lost—amidst screams of fraud—he told his followers to cast a "null" vote.

Basically, he told them: "Don't pick either."

About 1.7 million people spoiled their ballots. That’s a huge number. Most analysts agree that if those voters had swung toward Arauz, Lasso never would have seen the inside of the presidential palace. But the indigenous movement (CONAIE) was tired of the "extractivism" they associated with Arauz’s mentor, Correa. They chose silence over support.

The "Muerte Cruzada" and the 2023 Twist

Fast forward a bit. Lasso’s presidency was... rough. He started strong with a massive COVID-19 vaccination campaign—one of the fastest in the world—but then things soured. Protests shut down the country in 2022. Crime started to spike. By 2023, he was facing impeachment over embezzlement allegations (which he denied).

Instead of letting the National Assembly kick him out, Lasso pulled the "nuclear option." It’s called Muerte Cruzada (Crossed Death). He dissolved the legislature and called for new elections, essentially cutting his own term short.

Guess who came back?

Andrés Arauz didn't run for president this time; he ran for Vice President alongside Luisa González in 2023. They faced Daniel Noboa, a young businessman. And in a weird twist of fate, Arauz lost again. It seems the "Correísta" brand has a ceiling that’s hard to break through in modern Ecuador.

Where are they now?

• Guillermo Lasso: He’s mostly out of the daily political grind. He recently launched a scholarship program for Master's degrees in social sciences and spends time defending his legacy through his memoir, 900 Days.
• Andrés Arauz: He’s still a heavy hitter in the "Citizen Revolution" party. As of late 2025, he’s been serving as the party's General Secretary, keeping the gears turning for their next attempt at power.

Actionable Takeaways for Following Ecuador

If you're trying to make sense of the mess, here is what you actually need to watch:

1. The "Anti" Vote: In Ecuador, people don't always vote for someone. They vote against the other guy. Understanding the tension between Correísmo and its opposition is the only way to predict an election there.

2. The Central Bank Independence: This was a huge sticking point between Arauz and Lasso. Arauz wanted to use those funds for social spending; Lasso wanted them locked away to ensure the U.S. Dollar stayed stable. This debate will return in the next election cycle.

3. The Security Crisis: Neither man solved the rising violence linked to drug trafficking. This has now become the #1 issue for voters, eclipsing the economic debates that dominated the Arauz-Lasso era.

4. The Youth Factor: Lasso won because he pivoted to Gen Z at the last second. Arauz lost because he felt like a throwback to 2007. The candidate who masters the "now" usually wins, regardless of their ideology.

Ecuador remains a laboratory for Latin American politics—a place where a banker and a socialist economist can fight for the soul of a nation, only for both to be sidelined by a new generation of leaders.

Key Data Comparison

To understand the current political climate, you should monitor the upcoming 2025/2026 legislative shifts, as the remnants of Lasso’s CREO party and Arauz’s movement continue to clash over the country’s debt restructuring and security policies.