The air in the Supreme Court chamber gets thin when certain topics come up. You can feel it. When Kim Davis—the Kentucky clerk who famously refused to sign off on same-sex marriage licenses back in 2015—tried to get the high court to take up her case again recently, everyone held their breath. They wanted to see if the 6-3 conservative supermajority was finally going to pull the trigger on Obergefell v. Hodges.
People were genuinely scared. Honestly, looking at how Roe v. Wade vanished, that fear wasn't exactly coming out of nowhere.
But then something happened that surprised the pundits. The Court said no. They just... walked away. And right in the middle of that "no" was Justice Amy Coney Barrett.
The "Reliance" Factor: Why Barrett Isn't Scalia
If you want to understand Amy Coney Barrett and gay marriage, you have to look at her 2025 book, Listening to the Law, and her recent interviews. She's an originalist, sure. She was mentored by Justice Antonin Scalia, who hated the Obergefell decision with a passion. But Barrett is carving out a different lane.
During her first big TV interview with CBS’s Norah O’Donnell, Barrett dropped a word that legal nerds obsessed over: reliance.
Basically, she argued that even if a judge thinks an old case was decided poorly, you can't just blow it up if the whole country has built their lives around it. Think about it. Since 2015, hundreds of thousands of couples have married. They've bought houses together. They’ve adopted kids. They have joint bank accounts and health insurance.
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Barrett called these "very concrete reliance interests."
She’s basically saying that while she might think the democratic process (voting) would have been a "better" way to legalize gay marriage than a court ruling, the egg is already scrambled. You can't just unscramble it without causing total chaos for families across America.
The Kim Davis Rejection
In November 2025, the Supreme Court officially slammed the door on Kim Davis. She wanted them to overturn Obergefell so she wouldn't have to pay $360,000 in damages to the couples she turned away.
Justice Clarence Thomas was the only one who seemed truly eager to revisit the whole thing. He’s been vocal about it. He thinks the legal foundation for gay marriage is shaky. But Barrett? She didn't join him.
She hasn't been a "firebrand" on this.
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It's kinda wild when you think about her confirmation hearings back in 2020. Remember the "sexual preference" slip-up? She apologized for that almost immediately, realizing the term was seen as offensive because it implies being LGBTQ+ is a choice. Since then, she’s been way more careful. She’s focused on the idea that the Court shouldn't be an "opinion poll."
But "not an opinion poll" cuts both ways.
It means she won't change the law just because people want it changed, but it also means she’s hesitant to flip the table on settled rights that have become part of the social fabric.
Where the Real Conflict Lies
Don't get it twisted, though—it’s not all sunshine and rainbows for LGBTQ+ advocates. While the right to marry seems relatively safe under Barrett’s "reliance" logic, other areas are a total battleground.
- Transgender Rights: This is where Barrett is much more aggressive. In cases like United States v. Skrmetti (2025), she joined the majority in allowing states to ban gender-affirming care for minors.
- Religious Exemptions: She’s very big on the First Amendment. If a baker or a web designer doesn't want to work a gay wedding because of their faith, she’s likely going to side with the business owner.
- Sports and Schools: Just this month, in January 2026, the Court has been looking at trans girls in sports. Barrett’s questions during oral arguments haven't been particularly sympathetic to the trans side. She keeps asking how these bans discriminate when trans boys can still play on boys' teams.
So, the "marriage" part of Amy Coney Barrett and gay marriage might be stable, but the "equality" part of the equation is still very much up for grabs.
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What Most People Get Wrong
There’s this massive misconception that because Barrett is a devout Catholic and a conservative, she is a "sleeper cell" waiting to ban gay marriage. That's a bit of a cartoonish view.
The reality is more boring but more important: She is a proceduralist.
She cares about how things get to the Court. She has argued that the Court "should not be imposing its own values on the American people." To her, that applies to both liberal and conservative activism. If a case doesn't have the right legal "standing," or if the precedent is too deeply embedded in society, she’s likely to leave it alone.
Compare her to Justice Brett Kavanaugh. He’s also signaled that Obergefell is different from Roe. He’s called the right to marry "fundamental." Between Barrett, Kavanaugh, and Chief Justice John Roberts, there is a "middle" block that is very different from the Thomas/Alito wing.
Actionable Insights: What This Means for You
If you’re wondering what all this legal jargon actually means for the future, here’s the bottom line:
- Marriage Licenses are Safe: For now, the 14th Amendment protection for same-sex marriage isn't going anywhere. The "reliance" bar is too high for Barrett to jump over.
- The Respect for Marriage Act Matters: Even if the Court did flip (which looks unlikely), the law passed in 2022 ensures that the federal government and other states have to recognize valid marriages.
- Watch the "Carve-outs": The real change won't be a total ban. It will be "death by a thousand cuts" through religious exemptions. You might be legally married, but a private business or a religious hospital might get the right to treat you differently.
- Follow the Trans Cases: The legal logic being used against trans rights today is the same logic that could eventually be used against gay rights. If the Court says "biological sex" is the only thing that matters in sports, that could eventually bleed into other areas of law.
Keep an eye on the 2026 docket. The Court is shifting from "big picture" rights to the "nitty-gritty" of how those rights work in the real world. Barrett is the person to watch because she’s the one who actually seems to care about the consequences of breaking things that are already fixed.