If you’re checking the forecast for Amsterdam, you’ve probably seen a bunch of gray icons and assumed your trip is doomed to a soggy, miserable end. Honestly, that’s the first mistake. People treat Amsterdam’s weather like a permanent funeral, but it’s actually more of a moody, high-maintenance friend who occasionally surprises you with a gift.
Right now, on Saturday, January 17, 2026, the city is basically doing its standard winter routine. It’s 44°F and cloudy. A bit damp, sure, but not exactly "Day After Tomorrow" territory.
The Reality of Amsterdam Weather
You’ve gotta understand that the Netherlands is basically one big flat wind tunnel sitting next to the North Sea. This means the weather doesn't just "stay." It cycles. You can have a morning that feels like the Arctic and an afternoon where you’re peeling off your coat because the sun decided to peek out for exactly twenty minutes.
Today’s high hit 50°F, while tonight it’s dipping to 37°F. That’s the classic Dutch "thermal slap." You step out of a warm brown café, the east wind hits you at 4 mph, and suddenly you realize your light jacket was a massive tactical error.
Why January isn't as scary as it looks
Most travelers flee from January, thinking it’s all ice and frost. While it is the coldest month on average—usually sticking between 34°F and 42°F—it’s also weirdly quiet. You get the Rijksmuseum without the mosh pit.
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Today's humidity is sitting at a thick 95%. In Amsterdam, humidity doesn't mean "tropical," it means the cold has teeth. It’s that damp chill that gets into your bones if you aren't wearing wool. But look at the bright side: the precipitation chance today is only 10%. You’re more likely to get misted than drowned.
What the next few days look like
If you’re sticking around for the week, the forecast is actually a bit of a roller coaster. Tomorrow, Sunday, January 18, is looking surprisingly sunny with a high of 42°F. That’s the "Magic Window." If you want those perfect canal photos without the gray sludge background, Sunday is your day.
- Monday, Jan 19: Partly sunny, high of 42°F.
- Tuesday, Jan 20: Full sun again, high of 44°F.
- Wednesday, Jan 21: The clouds return, dropping to 38°F.
Basically, the early part of this week is a gift. But keep your eyes on Thursday, January 22. The forecast is calling for a mix of rain and snow. Amsterdam in the snow is gorgeous for about ten minutes until it turns into a brown slushie on the cobblestones. If you’re biking, just... be careful. Those tram tracks become death traps when they're slick.
The "Best Time" Myth
Everyone says "go in May for the tulips" or "July for the sun." They aren't wrong, but they're missing the nuance.
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Spring (March–May): This is when the city wakes up. April is technically the driest month, getting only about 1.2 inches of rain. If you hate getting wet, April is your best bet, though the wind can still be brutal.
Summer (June–August): This is the high-visibility season. You get about 7 to 9 hours of sun a day. Temperatures usually hover around 67°F to 70°F. It’s comfortable. It’s "sit on a terrace with a Heineken" weather. But here’s the kicker: August is actually one of the wettest months, averaging over 4 inches of rain. It comes in short, violent bursts. You’ll be fine one minute, and the next, you’re huddled under a shop awning with twenty other strangers.
Fall (September–November): Honestly, it’s a bit of a gamble. November is the wettest month, hands down. It’s gray. It’s windy. It’s the time of year when the Dutch word gezellig (cozy) really earns its keep because you’ll spend all your time indoors in candlelit bars.
Packing like you actually live here
If I see you with an umbrella in a gale-force wind, I know you’re a tourist. Amsterdam wind eats umbrellas for breakfast. It’ll flip your cheap drugstore umbrella inside out before you even cross the Leidsestraat.
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- The Rain Shell: Get a high-quality, hooded, waterproof jacket. If it breathes, even better.
- Layers: Thermal undershirts are the secret weapon for winter visits.
- Footwear: Cobblestones are uneven. When they're wet, they're slippery. Wear boots with grip. Leave the heels at home unless you want to twist an ankle in front of a tour group.
- The Scarf: Even in the "warm" months, a light scarf helps with that constant sea breeze.
The Climate Change Factor
We can't talk about what is the weather in amsterdam netherlands without acknowledging that things are getting weird. The Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) has been tracking a clear trend: winters are getting wetter, and summers are seeing more "peak" heat events.
The city is seeing more days above 85°F than it used to. Because Amsterdam isn't built for heat—most old canal houses don't have AC—those summer spikes can feel way hotter than the number on the thermometer suggests. On the flip side, the "Elfstedentocht" (the famous 11-city ice skating race) hasn't happened since 1997 because the canals just don't freeze deep enough for long enough anymore.
Practical Next Steps
If you are in the city right now or arriving this weekend:
- Prioritize outdoor activities for Sunday and Monday. The sun is coming out, and the rain chance is low (10%).
- Download a local rain app. "Buienradar" is the local gold standard. It gives you a minute-by-minute breakdown of exactly when a rain cloud is going to hit your specific GPS coordinate. It’s spookily accurate.
- Book the museums for Thursday. When the rain-snow mix hits on the 22nd, you’ll want to be inside the Van Gogh Museum, not wandering the Jordaan.
- Check the wind direction. If the wind is coming from the North or East (like today’s 4 mph east wind), it’s going to feel colder than the temp says. Dress for 5 degrees lower than the forecast.
Amsterdam weather is basically a game of "wait five minutes." Don't let a gray morning ruin your plans—just bring a jacket and keep moving.