You've probably seen the photos. Horses tied to hitching posts outside polling stations. Men in suspenders and straw hats standing in line next to suburban moms in Lululemon. It feels like a glitch in the matrix. For decades, the conventional wisdom was simple: the Amish don't vote. They are "in the world but not of it," focusing on a heavenly kingdom rather than a terrestrial one in Harrisburg or D.C.
But 2024 felt different.
The Amish vote in PA became a massive talking point this election cycle, and for good reason. Pennsylvania is the ultimate "tipping point" state. When you have an untapped demographic of nearly 90,000 people in a state decided by razor-thin margins, political strategists start drooling. Honestly, the shift we saw wasn't just about a single candidate; it was a collision of government overreach, grassroots "boots on the ground" organizing, and a community realizing that staying quiet might actually cost them their way of life.
The Raw Milk Rebellion: A Catalyst Nobody Saw Coming
If you want to understand why more buggies were heading to the polls, you have to look at a farm in Bird-in-Hand.
Early in 2024, the Pennsylvania Department of Agriculture raided the farm of Amos Miller. The issue? Raw milk and unregulated meat sales. For the state, it was a matter of public health and E. coli. For the Amish, it was an assault on their religious freedom and their right to feed their neighbors.
It was a PR nightmare for the state but a goldmine for Republican organizers.
This raid acted like a lightning bolt. It bridged the gap between "worldly politics" and the "two-kingdom theology" that usually keeps the Amish at home. Suddenly, the government wasn't just a distant entity that fixed the roads; it was the agency entering their barns and seizing their property. This "food freedom" movement resonated with libertarians and MAGA activists alike, creating a weird but effective alliance between the "wellness" crowd and the Plain people.
Scott Presler and the "Early Vote Action" Blitz
You can't talk about the Amish vote in PA without mentioning Scott Presler. The man basically moved to Pennsylvania.
While the Democrats were focusing on the "Blue Wall" in the suburbs, Presler and his group, Early Vote Action, were hitting the muddy backroads of Lancaster County. They didn't use Facebook ads—because, obviously, that's useless here. Instead, they used:
- Giant billboards along buggy routes.
- Handwritten postcards.
- Face-to-face chats at farmers' markets.
- Buses to get people to early voting sites.
It was a masterclass in hyper-local campaigning. They framed the election not as a personality contest, but as a defense of the Amish lifestyle. They talked about school choice, religious liberty, and "bodily autonomy" (a huge deal post-COVID).
By the Numbers: Did it Actually Matter?
Let's get real for a second. There’s a lot of hype, but what do the hard numbers say?
Historically, Amish turnout is incredibly low—often less than 10%. In 2020, experts like Steven Nolt from the Young Center estimated that only about 3,000 Amish people voted in Lancaster County.
In 2024, that number definitely climbed. While we are still waiting for the final, granular data that compares church directories to voter rolls, Republican Rep. Lloyd Smucker (who has Amish roots himself) noted a massive surge in enthusiasm.
However, we need to be careful with the "Kingmaker" narrative. Trump won Pennsylvania by over 150,000 votes in 2024. Even if Amish turnout doubled or tripled—which would be a historic feat—it's still a drop in the bucket compared to the shifts seen in places like Bucks County or the Lehigh Valley.
The Amish didn't "win" the state for Trump, but they certainly contributed to the "red wall" that Democrats couldn't climb over.
Why They (Usually) Stay Home
To understand the 2024 shift, you have to understand why they usually stay home. It's called Gelassenheit—a spirit of submission to God’s will.
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Most Amish believe that God ordains leaders. If God wants a certain person in power, He will put them there. Therefore, voting can feel like you're trying to do God's job for Him. It's a humble, quiet way of living that doesn't mesh well with the loud, aggressive nature of modern American politics.
There's also the "Two Kingdom" doctrine.
- The Kingdom of God: Peaceful, non-resistant, separate.
- The Kingdom of the World: Coercive, violent, and messy.
Choosing to participate in the second kingdom is a big deal. It’s a literal change in their cultural DNA. But as one Amish man reportedly told a canvasser, "If we don't vote now, we won't have the right to be left alone later."
A Culture in Flux
The Amish community isn't a monolith. It's changing.
Lancaster County is running out of farmland. Because land prices are through the roof, many younger Amish are starting small businesses—construction crews, cabinet shops, and roadside markets.
When you own a business, you care about:
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- Excessive regulations.
- High taxes.
- Permitting red tape.
These "business Amish" are much more likely to vote Republican than their strictly agrarian grandparents were. They are interacting with the "English" (non-Amish) world every single day. They hear the talk. They see the inflation. They feel the squeeze.
Misconceptions vs. Reality
| Misconception | The Reality |
|---|---|
| All Amish vote as a bloc. | Every church district is different; some bishops are strictly against voting. |
| They only care about farm issues. | Small business regulations and religious liberty are now top of mind. |
| 100,000 Amish voted in PA. | Total population is ~92k, and only about half are of voting age. The actual vote count is likely under 10k. |
What Happens Next?
The 2024 Amish vote in PA wasn't a one-off event. It was a proof of concept.
Republicans now know that if they show up—literally show up at the farm gate—they can move the needle. Democrats, on the other hand, have a massive blind spot here. By leaning into heavy environmental regulations and strict "food safety" codes, they are inadvertently poking a sleeping giant in rural Pennsylvania.
If the population continues to double every 20-25 years (which it does), this "small minority" won't be so small by 2030 or 2032.
Actionable Insights for the Future:
- Watch the "Food Freedom" legislation: Any bills in Harrisburg regarding raw milk or small-scale meat processing will be the best "early warning system" for Amish political engagement.
- Monitor Voter Registration: Keep an eye on Lancaster, Juniata, and Mifflin counties. If Republican registration continues to outpace Democrats in these specific rural pockets, the "Presler Model" is working.
- Respect the Boundary: For those looking to engage this community, remember that loud rallies don't work. Success in the future depends on quiet, respectful, one-on-one communication that respects their desire for separation while acknowledging their need for protection.
The buggies are still on the road, and the lanterns are still lit, but the silence from the "Plain People" is slowly, surely, fading away.