If you've played fantasy football for more than a minute, you know the name. Alvin Kamara is basically a cheat code that occasionally malfunctions. One week he’s dropping six touchdowns on Christmas Day like he’s Santa Claus with a grudge; the next, he’s plodding through a stagnant Saints offense for 30 yards.
But here is the thing. People keep waiting for the "cliff."
Every summer, the fantasy experts scream that he's too old, the offensive line is too porous, or the quarterback situation is too messy. Yet, until a nasty MCL sprain derailed his 2025 campaign, the guy was still out there soaking up targets like a sponge in a rainstorm. Let’s actually look at the Alvin Kamara fantasy stats and figure out why he’s the most misunderstood asset in the game.
The PPR Lifeline is Real
Honestly, if you are playing in a standard, non-PPR league, why? Seriously. In that format, Kamara is a headache. But in PPR? He is a king.
In 2024, Kamara was a monster. He finished as the RB9 in total points and a staggering RB5 in points per game. He was seeing nearly 20 touches a night. Think about that. In an era where "running back by committee" is the law of the land, Kamara was still the guy. He led all running backs in targets that year with 84.
Even when his rushing efficiency dipped—and yeah, 3.9 yards per carry isn't exactly prime Barry Sanders—his floor stayed higher than a penthouse. If a guy catches five balls for 30 yards, he just gave you 8 points before he even took a handoff. That is the safety net that makes his stats so resilient.
Breaking Down the 2025 Season
Last year was... weird. It started okay, but the wheels came off for the Saints. Kamara played 11 games before that MCL injury in late November against Atlanta ended his season.
Check out the raw numbers from his 2025 run:
- Rushing: 131 carries for 471 yards (a career-low 3.6 YPC).
- Receiving: 33 catches on 39 targets for 186 yards.
- Touchdowns: Exactly one. Total.
That 9.2 fantasy points per game average was a shock to the system. It was the first time in his nine-year career he finished outside the top 16 at the position. He was the RB34. For a guy who had three top-5 finishes and six top-10 finishes on his resume, 2025 felt like the apocalypse.
The Volume vs. Efficiency Debate
Is he "washed"? That’s the $11 million question—literally, since that’s his base salary for 2026.
Look, the yards per carry have been sliding. We can’t ignore it. He hasn't averaged over 4.3 yards per carry since 2020. In 2025, he was struggling to find daylight, often getting hit before he could even make that signature jump-cut. The Saints' offensive line has been a revolving door of "who is that guy?" for two years now.
But don’t mistake a bad environment for a bad player.
In 2024, when the offense had a bit more rhythm under the early Kellen Moore influence, Kamara had three games with over 100 rushing yards. He even had that insane 44-point explosion against Dallas in Week 2. He still has the "pop." He just needs the volume to be high-quality, not just "here, try to dodge four defenders in the backfield" volume.
Why 2026 is a Contract Year Nightmare (or Dream)
Kamara is under contract through 2026, but the cap hits are getting astronomical—nearly $18.6 million. Most of his 2026 money isn't fully guaranteed until the spring.
For fantasy managers, this is a "prove it" year.
The Saints drafted Audric Estime and Devin Neal to potentially take the "thumper" role, but neither of those guys can catch like Kamara. In 2025, even with the injury, Kamara had a 67.2% opportunity share when he was active. The team simply doesn't trust anyone else to handle the complex passing-down protections and choice routes.
What Most People Get Wrong About the Stats
You'll hear people say, "He's TD dependent."
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That's actually the opposite of the truth. Kamara is volume dependent. In 2023, he scored only six touchdowns but still finished as the RB3 in PPR points per game. Why? Because he caught 75 passes. He doesn't need to find the end zone to win you a week; he just needs the Saints to be incompetent enough that the quarterback (whoever that may be this week) panics and dumps the ball off ten times.
Strategies for the Future
If you are looking at Kamara for the 2026 season, you have to be cold-blooded.
- Treat him as a high-end RB2, not an RB1. The days of 20 touchdowns are gone. Acceptance is the first step.
- Handcuff him immediately. The late 2025 stretch showed that Audric Estime is the guy the Saints will turn to for the goal-line work if Kamara is out or limited.
- Watch the trade rumors. There was heavy talk about a mid-season trade in 2025. If Kamara lands on a contender with a better O-line, his fantasy value might actually rise as he nears age 31.
Kamara has always been about balance and contact balance. He doesn't take the massive, soul-crushing hits that some power backs do. That is why his career has lasted this long. While 2025 was a statistical valley, the underlying usage suggests he isn't done—he’s just trapped in a bad situation.
Keep an eye on the Saints' quarterback room this summer. If they bring in a veteran "check-down Charlie," Kamara's reception floor goes right back to the moon. If it's a mobile rookie who likes to tuck and run? That’s when you worry.
To stay ahead of the curve, you should track the Saints' preseason offensive line grades and Kamara's snap share in the first two weeks of the season to see if his 2025 decline was an injury fluke or a new reality.