Honestly, if you took a poll in the French Quarter three years ago about who would be the last man standing from the Sean Payton era, most people would’ve shouted "AK41" without blinking. Alvin Kamara wasn't just a running back for the New Orleans Saints. He was the identity. The balance. The guy who could turn a simple dump-off pass into a 40-yard highlight reel while looking like he was barely breaking a sweat.
But things are different now in 2026. The dreadlocks still fly out the back of the helmet, and the nose ring is still there, but the "Contact Balance King" is staring down the most uncertain off-season of his career.
It’s been a weird ride. One minute he’s signing a massive two-year, $24.5 million extension in late 2024—effectively telling the world he’s a Saint for life—and the next, we’re looking at a 2025 season where he basically disappeared down the stretch. He missed the final six games of the 2025 campaign with a nasty MCL sprain. That’s a long time for a 30-year-old back to be sitting on the sidelines watching Audric Estime take his carries.
The $18 Million Question Facing New Orleans
The Saints are in a familiar spot: cap hell. Only this time, Alvin Kamara is right in the crosshairs of the calculator.
According to the latest cap data, Kamara is carrying a cap hit of roughly $18 million for the 2026 season. That is a massive number for a guy who just turned 30 and finished last year with only 471 rushing yards. Look, nobody is saying he’s "washed." That’s a harsh word. But when you look at the 3.6 yards per carry he averaged in 2025, you can't help but squint at the TV and wonder where that extra gear went.
Mickey Loomis has a choice. He can keep the legend around and hope the knee holds up, or he can take the "brutal" path. If the Saints designate Kamara as a post-June 1 cut this summer, they could clear about $8.5 million in space.
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It’s cold. It’s business. But in a league where teams are drafting replacements like Jeremiyah Love—who most mocks have the Saints grabbing at No. 8 overall—the writing isn't just on the wall; it’s written in neon.
Why the Kellen Moore Marriage Felt... Off
When Kellen Moore took over the offense, everyone thought we’d see the "Dallas version" of a workhorse back. We expected Kamara to be Saquon Barkley 2.0.
It didn't quite click like that.
Early in the 2025 season, the Saints were struggling. They were starting a rookie QB in Tyler Shough. The offensive line was, frankly, a mess of revolving doors. Kamara was still the leader, and he was still catching passes (33 receptions in 11 games), but the "home run" plays were gone.
- He had zero rushing touchdowns after Week 1.
- His longest catch of the year was only 26 yards.
- He didn't have a single game over 100 yards rushing.
Basically, the Saints offense moved away from the outside zone schemes that Klint Kubiak tried to install and leaned into a more static, protective shell for Shough. Kamara became a safety valve. A very expensive safety valve.
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What the Stats Don’t Tell You About 2025
If you just look at the box score, you’d think he’s done. But if you actually watched the games before he got hurt against the Falcons in November, you saw a guy who was still fighting.
He was still forcing missed tackles—19 of them on just 131 carries, according to PFF. That's actually decent. It means he hasn't lost the agility; he's just lost the blocking. The Saints' offensive line ranked near the bottom of the league in run-blocking win rate for most of the season. You could put prime Marshall Faulk back there and he’d still be getting hit three yards behind the line of scrimmage.
There’s also the leadership factor. Kellen Moore has been vocal about how much he loves Alvin's presence in the locker room. When the trade rumors started swirled last year, Kamara shut them down instantly. He told reporters he’d rather retire than play in another jersey. That kind of loyalty is rare. In New Orleans, it makes you a god.
The Catch-23: Chasing History
One thing that might keep Kamara in a Saints uniform for 2026 is the record book. He is currently sitting at 5th all-time in receptions for a running back. He’s got 606.
He’s only a handful of catches away from passing Keith Byars for 4th, and if he can stay healthy for even half of next season, he’ll likely pass LaDainian Tomlinson for 3rd. That is elite company.
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- Marshall Faulk: 767
- Larry Centers: 679
- LaDainian Tomlinson: 624
- Keith Byars: 610
- Alvin Kamara: 606
For a franchise that doesn't have a ton to cheer for right now, watching Kamara climb that list is one of the few reasons to buy a ticket to the Superdome.
What Should You Expect Next?
If you're a Saints fan or a fantasy manager trying to figure out if he's worth a flyer, here is the reality. The days of Alvin Kamara being a top-5 fantasy pick are over. Gone.
However, if New Orleans restructures his deal—which they probably will because they love kicking the can down the road—he will be the Week 1 starter. He won't be the only guy, though. Expect a heavy dose of Audric Estime or a high-round rookie to take the "bruiser" carries while Kamara moves back to his natural habitat: the "Joker" role.
The move to 2026 is all about preservation.
Actionable Insights for Saints Fans
- Keep an eye on the Draft: If the Saints take a RB in the first two rounds, Kamara’s volume is going to crater.
- Watch the Post-June 1 Window: This is the danger zone. If he's still on the roster June 2, he's likely staying for the year.
- Check the O-Line Signings: Kamara’s success is 100% tied to the Saints fixing the interior of that line. If they don't sign a veteran guard, expect more 3.2 YPC games.
The story of Kamara in New Orleans is reaching its final chapter. It might not be the explosive, six-touchdown-on-Christmas-Day ending we all wanted, but he’s earned the right to go out on his terms. Whether the Saints' front office agrees with those terms is the only thing left to see.