Honestly, if you've walked down the beverage aisle lately and noticed prices creeping up on your favorite six-pack, you aren't imagining things. There is a lot of noise right now regarding aluminum can supply news, and most of it is a mix of panic and half-truths. People keep talking about "shortages" like we’re back in 2020, but the reality in 2026 is way more complicated—and kinda fascinating if you're into supply chain drama.
We aren't just "running out" of metal. That’s a myth. The world is actually swimming in aluminum, but we have a massive bottleneck in getting that metal turned into a 12-ounce container and onto a shelf. Between new 50% tariffs on primary aluminum and a literal war for electricity between smelters and AI data centers, the "can" you're holding is becoming one of the most contested pieces of real estate in the global economy.
The 2026 Deficit: Why the Math Changed
For the last few years, we’ve been coasting on a surplus. Bank of America researchers actually pointed out that from 2023 through 2025, the market had more than enough to go around. But 2026 is the "flip" year. We are officially entering a global supply gap of about 292,000 tons.
Why? Basically, demand in the US and Europe is rebounding just as China—which produces over half the world's aluminum—hit its "capacity cap." They decided to stop growing their smelting capacity at 45 million tonnes to manage emissions. That means the "infinite" tap of cheap Chinese aluminum has basically been turned off.
Smelters vs. ChatGPT: The Battle for Power
This is the part nobody is talking about at the grocery store. To make aluminum, you need an ungodly amount of electricity. It’s basically "solidified electricity."
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Currently, aluminum smelters are losing the bidding war for power. AI data centers are popping up everywhere, and they are willing to pay $115 per megawatt-hour (MWh) for long-term power contracts. A smelter needs power at around $40/MWh to stay profitable. When a tech giant enters the neighborhood, the smelter often just... goes dark. We’ve seen this in Europe, where over a million tonnes of capacity remain offline because the grid is too expensive.
The Tariff Squeeze and Your Wallet
If you're a fan of Mexican imports like Modelo or Pacifico, you've likely seen the aluminum can supply news hitting those brands the hardest. In mid-2025, the US administration doubled tariffs on primary aluminum to 50%.
- Constellation Brands (who own Modelo) reported that these tariffs are biting hard into their margins.
- Ball Corporation has been passing through price increases of nearly 30% to some customers.
- The result? About $0.02 is added to the cost of every single can produced in North America just from the tariff shift.
It sounds like pennies, but when you’re moving billions of units, it’s a catastrophe for the bottom line. Brands are now frantically "lightweighting"—basically making the walls of the can thinner to use less metal. If the can feels a bit more "squishy" than it used to, that’s why.
The Recycling "Scrap" Gap
The US is kinda failing at the one thing that could save us: recycling.
We only recycle about 45% of our aluminum cans. Compare that to Brazil, where the rate is over 95%. Because scrap aluminum is largely exempt from those 50% tariffs, it has become the "black gold" of the packaging world.
| Region | Payout per Lb (2026 Est.) | Why it's high/low |
|---|---|---|
| California | $1.65 – $1.80 | High CRV (bottle bill) incentives. |
| Texas | $0.55 – $0.70 | Pure commodity scrap value. |
| New York | $1.50 – $1.60 | Strong deposit return systems. |
| Florida | $0.45 – $0.58 | Lack of state-wide deposit mandates. |
Recycling a can uses 95% less energy than making a new one from ore. If we could get the US rate up to 70%, we’d recover over $1 billion in lost metal every year. Right now, that's just sitting in landfills while manufacturers scramble for expensive imports.
What’s Actually Coming Next?
It isn't all gloom. There's a light at the end of the tunnel, but it’s a year or two away.
- New Facilities: Ball is opening a massive new facility in Millersburg, Oregon, in late 2026. This is specifically designed to fix the supply "hamstring" in the Western US.
- The "Sleek" Revolution: You've probably noticed more tall, skinny cans. These "sleek" and "slim" formats are growing at double the rate of standard cans. They use slightly different manufacturing lines and are easier to pack for e-commerce.
- Onshoring Smelters: There’s talk of a $4 billion domestic smelter in Oklahoma, but don't hold your breath—that won't help your 2026 summer BBQ supply.
Actionable Insights for 2026
If you're a business owner or just a consumer trying to navigate this, here's the "real talk" on what to do.
- Lock in Contracts Now: if you’re a craft brewer or beverage startup, the spot market for cans is going to be volatile through Q4 2026. Long-term volume commitments are the only way to avoid the "tariff surcharges" that are currently crushing smaller players.
- Embrace the "Sleek": Supply lines for 12oz standard cans are the most congested. Switching to 12oz sleek or 7.5oz "mini" cans can sometimes bypass the biggest manufacturing bottlenecks.
- Watch the Midwest Premium: Keep an eye on the "Midwest Premium" (the price for delivered aluminum in the US). If it spikes, expect a retail price hike about 3 months later.
- Recycle Like Your Wallet Depends on It: Seriously. In states like Texas or Florida, scrap prices are hitting $0.65/lb. It’s not just "being green" anymore; it’s a legitimate secondary revenue stream for small businesses.
The aluminum can supply news for 2026 isn't a story of a world running out of resources. It's a story of a world trying to figure out how to pay for them. Between AI data centers eating the power and tariffs eating the margins, the humble soda can has become a high-stakes commodity.
Stick to local sourcing where you can, and keep an eye on those Oregon and Alabama mill openings later this year—they’re the real "relief valves" for the industry.