Honestly, if you told a room full of traders back in 2024 that Alphabet Inc (GOOGL) would be sitting pretty with a market cap north of $4 trillion by early 2026, most of them would have laughed you out of the building. Back then, the narrative was all about how Google was "falling behind" in the AI race. People were obsessed with ChatGPT and thought the classic search engine was heading for the digital graveyard.
Fast forward to today, January 17, 2026, and the vibe is completely different. The alphabet inc googl stock price has basically defied the skeptics, fueled by a massive 65% surge in 2025. It wasn't just luck; it was a total overhaul of how they do business. They didn't just survive the AI shift—they sort of became the backbone of it.
The Ironwood Factor and Custom Silicon
One of the biggest moves that moved the needle for the alphabet inc googl stock price wasn't even a software update. It was the "Ironwood" chip. For a long time, everyone was beholden to Nvidia, but Alphabet’s decision to go all-in on their own custom AI chips (TPUs) changed the game.
By making their own silicon, they slashed their internal costs. More importantly, they started talking to other tech giants like Meta about selling these chips outright. Think about that: Google, the search company, is now a legitimate hardware competitor in the semiconductor space.
It’s this kind of vertical integration that keeps the margins thick. In the third quarter of 2025, they reported their first-ever $100 billion quarter. That's a staggering amount of money. Their revenue has literally doubled in the last five years. While the market was worried about "AI hallucinations," Alphabet was busy building a money-printing machine that doesn't rely solely on someone else's hardware.
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Why the "Search is Dead" Narrative Failed
You've probably noticed that Googling something looks a lot different now. The integration of AI Overviews and the new "AI Mode" didn't kill search traffic like the bears predicted. Instead, it actually increased engagement. People are asking more complex questions because they know they'll get a real answer, not just a list of links.
- Gemini 3 Adoption: The Gemini app now has over 650 million monthly active users.
- Search Volume: Query volume actually doubled over the last quarter of 2025.
- Siri Integration: Apple choosing Google Gemini to power the "new" Siri was a massive validation. It proved that even their biggest rivals recognize who has the best models.
It’s also worth mentioning the legal stuff. Remember those monopoly lawsuits that were supposed to break the company apart? The penalties ended up being way lighter than expected. No forced breakup. No massive structural collapse. Just some minor concessions that the market basically shrugged off. Once that cloud of uncertainty lifted, the stock price had nothing but green grass in front of it.
The Cloud Growth Engine
Google Cloud used to be the "third-place" player that barely made a profit. Not anymore. In the most recent reports, Cloud revenue jumped 34% to over $15 billion in a single quarter.
The real kicker? Their cloud backlog—which is basically promised future work—shot up to $155 billion. That gives the alphabet inc googl stock price a level of predictability that most tech stocks would kill for. When a company tells you they already have $150 billion in the pipeline, it makes it a lot easier for analysts to slap a "Buy" rating on the stock.
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Is the Current Price a Bubble?
Look, 30 times forward earnings isn't exactly "cheap" in a traditional sense. But compared to the rest of the Magnificent Seven, Alphabet is actually one of the more reasonably priced stocks out there. Some analysts, like those at Bank of Nova Scotia, have already pushed their 2026 price targets to $375 or higher.
There are still risks, obviously. We’re seeing massive capital expenditure—between $91 billion and $93 billion just to keep the AI data centers running. If the "AI payoff" stalls or if we hit a wall with LLM capabilities, that's a lot of expensive hardware sitting idle.
What the Experts are Saying
| Analyst Firm | 2026 Price Target | Stance |
|---|---|---|
| Citi | $350 | Top Internet Pick |
| Bank of Nova Scotia | $375 | Outperform |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | $370 | Overweight |
| Zacks | N/A | Hold (Neutral) |
The Road to $500
If Alphabet keeps growing its earnings at this clip, a $500 share price by 2030 doesn't just seem possible—it seems likely. The company is no longer just a "search engine with a video site attached." It’s an AI infrastructure play, a semiconductor designer, and a cloud powerhouse.
So, what should you actually do?
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First, keep a close eye on the Q4 2025 earnings report. If they show that the "AI Mode" in search is continuing to drive higher ad rates (CPCs), the momentum will likely carry through the rest of 2026.
Second, watch the TPU sales rumors. If a formal deal with Meta or another hyperscaler is announced, it opens up a multi-billion dollar revenue stream that most current models haven't fully baked in yet.
Third, don't ignore the dividend. It's small, sure (around $0.21 per quarter), but it signals that the company is mature enough to return cash to shareholders while still spending record amounts on R&D.
Basically, the "old" Google is gone. The new Alphabet is a vertically integrated AI beast. While there will always be "air pockets" in the stock price as the market digests these massive gains, the underlying fundamentals are the strongest they've been in a decade.
Actionable Insights for Investors:
- Monitor the Capex: Watch if the 2026 capital expenditure exceeds the projected $93 billion; high spending is good for growth but can squeeze short-term margins.
- Track Gemini User Growth: If monthly active users (MAU) for the Gemini app stall below the 800 million mark, it might indicate a peak in consumer AI interest.
- Diversify Within Tech: Don't let one ticker dominate your portfolio, even one as strong as Alphabet. The 2022 "Metaverse moment" proved that even the biggest giants can see 50% drawdowns if sentiment shifts.