You think you know the hierarchy. Mahomes, Allen, maybe Burrow if he’s healthy. That’s usually where the conversation starts and ends. But honestly, if you're looking at all QBs in the NFL right now, the league looks nothing like it did even eighteen months ago. We are living through a massive, slightly chaotic changing of the guard that has left some of the biggest names in the sport holding clipboard or looking for work.
Take the AFC East. For years, it was the "waiting for Aaron Rodgers" division. Now? It’s Drake Maye’s backyard. The kid didn't just step into the starting role in New England; he basically broke the league in 2025. Leading the NFL in QBR and completion percentage as a sophomore isn't supposed to happen with that roster. He’s the reason the Patriots hit 14 wins. Meanwhile, Rodgers is in Pittsburgh, potentially looking at the exit door after a "resurgent" but ultimately empty season.
The "middle class" of NFL quarterbacks has effectively evaporated. You're either a superstar on a rookie deal, a high-priced veteran under fire, or a "bridge" guy holding on for dear life.
The Elite Tier is Getting Younger and Weirder
It used to be that you needed a decade of experience to "process" an NFL defense. Not anymore. Look at Bo Nix in Denver. He just led the league with seven game-winning drives. Seven! That’s absurd for a guy still on his rookie contract. He’s playing a high-risk, high-reward style that Sean Payton seems to love, though that recent ankle fracture in the Divisional Round win over Buffalo has completely flipped the Broncos' Super Bowl hopes on their head.
With Nix out for the AFC Championship, we're seeing Jarrett Stidham take the reins. It's a reminder that when we talk about all QBs in the NFL, the backup is often the most important person in the building.
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- Drake Maye: The new gold standard. 4,394 yards and an MVP-caliber season.
- Jordan Love: Consistency personified in Green Bay, despite the concussion late in the year.
- Lamar Jackson: Still the most dangerous runner, but his passing efficiency in Baltimore has hit a new peak.
- Josh Allen: The 91.4 passing grade over the last few years tells the story. He is the Bills' offense.
Then you have the Matthew Stafford situation. The guy threw 46 touchdowns in 2025. At his age, that’s basically defiance of physics. The Rams are still leaning on him because, frankly, the gap between a guy like Stafford and a replacement-level starter is still a canyon.
The Benchings and the "School of Second Chances"
We need to talk about Miami. Tua Tagovailoa getting benched for Quinn Ewers in Week 15 was the "shock heard 'round the world," or at least around Florida. It felt like the end of an era. Tua is now openly talking about a "fresh start" elsewhere. It’s a recurring theme. The league has become incredibly impatient.
If you aren't the guy, you're the backup. Or you're "rehabilitating" your value.
Kyle Shanahan has basically turned the 49ers' backup spot into a car wash for broken careers. Sam Darnold used it to jump-start a massive run in Seattle—leading them to the top seed in the NFC this year. Now, Mac Jones is the latest "student" in San Francisco. He stepped in for an injured Brock Purdy and actually looked... good? It’s enough to make you wonder if quarterback talent is just 80% coaching.
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In Washington, Jayden Daniels has the talent, but he can't stay on the field. He dealt with three separate injuries in 2025. That’s where Marcus Mariota comes in. He’s the quintessential "premium backup." He isn't going to win you a Ring, but he’ll keep you from losing ten games in a row.
What Most People Get Wrong About the 2026 Draft
There’s a massive misconception that help is coming from the college ranks. It’s not. Not this year.
Because of NIL money, almost every top-tier college QB is staying in school. Dante Moore is staying at Oregon. Arch Manning is staying at Texas. The 2026 NFL Draft is historically thin at the position. Ty Simpson from Alabama is basically the only big-name underclassman who declared.
This means the "Quarterback Carousel" this offseason is going to be violent. Teams like the Jets, Raiders, and Colts are staring at a void. If you don't have one of the all QBs in the NFL who can actually start, you can't just "draft a guy" this April. You’re going to have to trade for someone like Kyler Murray or overpay for a veteran like Daniel Jones, who is coming off an Achilles tear.
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The Current Landscape of Starting Roles
- The Stabilized: Stroud in Houston, Herbert with the Chargers, and Burrow in Cincy. These spots are locked for five years.
- The Chaos Zone: The New York Jets. They tried Justin Fields, it failed, and they ended the year with an undrafted rookie, Brady Cook. They are back to square one.
- The "Bridge" Traps: The Raiders with Geno Smith. Geno has played well, but is he the 2027 answer? Probably not.
- The Lefties: Bryce Young is actually showing "non-linear progress" in Carolina. He’s becoming a dangerous point guard in Dave Canales' system.
The Financial Reality of the QB2
We used to ignore backups. Now, they're getting paid like mid-level starters. Look at Davis Mills in Houston. The Texans keep tacking years onto his deal because he went 3-0 while Stroud was out. He’s under contract for over $6 million in 2026.
Teams are realizing that a season ends the moment a bad backup enters. The Packers are desperate to re-sign Malik Willis because they know Jordan Love’s health is a variable. Willis proved he could handle Matt LaFleur’s "finishing school" and win games. That makes him more valuable to Green Bay than a third-round pick would be.
The league is currently split between the "haves" and the "desperate." If you have a Drake Maye or a C.J. Stroud, you’re playing a different game than the rest of the world.
Actionable Insights for the 2026 Offseason
- Watch the Trade Market: Since the draft class is weak, expect a record number of veteran QB trades in March. Kyler Murray and Tua Tagovailoa are the primary names to track.
- Monitor Injury Rebounds: Daniel Jones and Bo Nix are the two biggest question marks. Jones' recovery from his Achilles tear will dictate whether the Colts are aggressive in free agency.
- Evaluate System Fits: If a QB is struggling, look at their offensive coordinator. As we saw with Sam Darnold and Mac Jones, a change in system (specifically toward a Shanahan/McVay style) can instantly revive a "bust."
- Draft Strategy: If your team needs a QB and doesn't have a top-three pick, expect them to target offensive line or receivers instead. Reaching for a quarterback in this specific 2026 class is a recipe for a fired GM.