Honestly, if you’ve been watching the ticker for Alibaba Hong Kong stock (9988.HK) lately, you’ve probably felt a bit of whiplash. One day it’s the "comeback kid" of Chinese tech, and the next, it’s sliding 2% on news that sounds like a repeat of 2021.
As of mid-January 2026, the stock is sitting around the HK$165 mark. That’s a massive jump from where it languished a year ago, but let’s be real: the "easy money" from the 2025 stimulus rally has mostly been made.
What’s happening now is a much grittier battle. It’s no longer about whether Beijing will let Alibaba exist. We know they will. Now, it’s about whether Alibaba can actually make money while fighting a three-front war against Pinduoduo, JD.com, and a global AI arms race that’s costing them billions.
The Dual Primary Listing Flip
Basically, the biggest "boring" thing that happened recently was Alibaba’s move to a dual primary listing in Hong Kong.
For a long time, the Hong Kong shares were just a sidecar to the New York ADRs. Not anymore. By making Hong Kong a primary home, Alibaba finally got itself tucked into the Southbound Stock Connect. This sounds like jargon, but it’s the reason the stock didn’t crater during the late-2025 volatility.
It opened the door for mainland Chinese investors to buy the stock directly using Yuan. Think about that. You have a massive pool of local capital that understands Taobao and Tmall better than any Wall Street analyst ever could. This "home court advantage" has created a floor for the price that didn’t exist two years ago.
The Cloud is the Real Engine Now
If you’re still looking at Alibaba as just a digital shopping mall, you’re missing the plot. In the last earnings report from November 2025, cloud revenue grew by 34% year-over-year.
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That’s wild.
Most of that isn't from hosting websites; it’s from AI demand. Alibaba’s Qwen app has basically become the Swiss Army knife of the Chinese internet. You can order food, book a flight, and get a legal contract drafted in one spot. Jefferies recently pointed out that over 70% of Alibaba Cloud customers are now using their AI API services.
But here’s the catch. To keep that lead, they are spending like crazy. We’re talking a $52 billion commitment to AI infrastructure over the next three years. That is why the "free cash flow" numbers looked a bit ugly in the September 2025 quarter, dropping significantly as they funneled cash into GPUs and data centers.
The "Involution" Problem in E-commerce
You might have heard the term "involution" (neijuan) floating around. It’s a fancy word for a "race to the bottom."
In 2025, JD.com decided to pick a fight in the food delivery space with its "JD Takeaway" service. Alibaba’s Ele.me had to respond. Meituan had to respond. Result? Everyone’s margins got shredded.
Even though Taobao and Tmall have stabilized their market share at around 44%, they are doing it by subsidizing prices to keep Pinduoduo (PDD) at bay. PDD is still the "richest" player in terms of cash reserves because they haven't wasted as much on these side-wars.
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Investors are currently wrestling with a tough question: Is a stable 44% market share worth it if the cost of defending it keeps your profit growth in the low double digits?
Real Numbers to Chew On
Let's look at the actual performance data for Alibaba Hong Kong stock as we head into February 2026:
- Current Price: Roughly HK$165.10
- Year-to-Date Performance: Up about 18%, though it’s been a rocky road.
- P/E Ratio: Trading around 19x, which is a far cry from its "uninvestable" days of 8x or 9x, but still cheaper than US big tech.
- Next Big Date: February 19, 2026—the Q3 2026 earnings release.
Analysts are expecting earnings per share (EPS) of about $1.44 for the next quarter. If they miss that because of the "delivery wars" or AI spending, expect some short-term pain.
What Most People Get Wrong About the Risks
People keep talking about "regulation" like it’s 2021. It isn't. Beijing’s new "AI Plus" policy, launched in August 2025, actually treats companies like Alibaba as national champions. They want these firms to hit a 70% AI penetration rate by 2027.
The real risk isn't the Chinese government anymore. It’s the geopolitical chip ban.
Alibaba was recently told by the government to stop buying Nvidia chips due to security concerns and US export curbs. They are being forced to use domestic silicon or design their own. If Chinese-made AI chips can't keep up with what's happening in Silicon Valley, Alibaba Cloud’s 34% growth could hit a brick wall.
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It’s a hardware problem now, not a legal one.
Is 9988 Actually a Buy Right Now?
Look, nobody has a crystal ball. But the vibe around Alibaba Hong Kong stock has shifted from "fear of death" to "frustration with growth."
If you’re a value investor, the fact that the company is still buying back billions of dollars in shares and paying a dividend (roughly 1.4% yield) is a massive green flag. They aren't just a "growth at all costs" company anymore; they are acting like a mature utility that happens to have a high-growth AI startup hidden inside it.
The downside? The volatility in Hong Kong is just part of the package. You’ve got to be okay with 3% swings on no news.
Next Steps for Your Portfolio:
- Check your exposure: If you already own the NYSE-listed BABA, you don’t necessarily need the HK-listed 9988 unless you want to trade during Asian hours or avoid potential US delisting headaches (which have mostly faded).
- Watch the February 19th report: Specifically, look at the Cloud EBITA. If the cloud division starts showing real profit instead of just revenue growth, that’s the signal that the AI investment is paying off.
- Monitor the "Southbound" flows: Keep an eye on how much mainland money is moving into the stock. High mainland buying usually acts as a cushion during global sell-offs.
- Ignore the "China is uninvestable" headlines: Those are usually three months late to the party. Focus on the competition between Alibaba and Pinduoduo; that’s where the real story is written.