So, it finally happened. After that weird, one-year whirlwind in Boston where he basically kept the Red Sox relevant single-handedly, Alex Bregman has packed his bags for the North Side of Chicago. Five years, $175 million. That is a massive chunk of change for a guy who’s technically on the wrong side of 30, but if you’re a collector, it changes the math on an Alex Bregman baseball card almost instantly.
The thing about Bregman is that people treat him like he's "just" an Astros dynasty guy. But look at the 2025 stats. He hit .273 with an .822 OPS and a Gold Glove on his mantle from the year before. He’s not a fading star; he’s a veteran who knows how to win. And now he’s doing it in a Cubs jersey. If you’ve been sitting on his rookie cards, you're probably wondering if the "Cubs Bump" is real. Spoiler: It usually is, but not for every card.
The 1st Bowman Hierarchy (and why it’s complicated)
If you want the "Holy Grail," you’re looking at 2016 Bowman Chrome. Most people see the "1st Bowman" logo and think they've struck gold. Well, kinda. The 2016 Bowman Chrome Autograph is the one that actually moves the needle. A Red Refractor /5 in a BGS 9.5 slab sold for nearly $18,000 back in 2023. That’s house-down-payment territory for some folks.
But here is the weird part. Bregman actually has cards from 2010. Yeah, 2010.
Before he was the face of the Astros' hot corner, he was a kid on the USA Baseball 18U National Team. Collectors often overlook the 2010 Bowman Chrome USA cards. Honestly, they’re some of my favorites because they have that "1st Bowman" logo five years before he even got drafted by Houston. A 1/1 Superfractor of that USA card sold for $4,000 last May. That’s a steal compared to his 2016 stuff, especially since there are only a handful of them in existence.
Rookie Cards vs. Prospect Cards
There’s always this annoying debate about what counts as a "true" rookie.
- 2016 Bowman Chrome: This is the prospect card. It's the one the big-money investors chase.
- 2017 Topps Series 1 (#210): This is the actual MLB rookie card.
The 2017 Topps stuff is much more affordable. You can find a clean base version for the price of a decent lunch. But if you want something that will actually appreciate while he's chasing a ring in Chicago, you’ve got to look at the parallels. The 2017 Topps Chrome Sapphire or any of the low-numbered Refractors are where the value stays sticky.
Why the Cubs move actually matters for his value
Chicago is a different beast. When a player moves from a "villain" team (sorry Houston, but you know it's true) to a legacy franchise like the Cubs, the fan base expansion is massive. There are more people looking for an Alex Bregman baseball card today than there were six months ago.
Plus, the Hall of Fame talk is starting to get loud. Through the 2025 season, he’s sitting on over 1,250 hits and 209 home runs. If he puts up four solid years at Wrigley, he’s knocking on the door of 300 homers and 2,000 hits. Combine that with two World Series rings and a potential deep playoff run with the Cubs? That’s a Cooperstown resume.
Collectors love a narrative. The "veteran leader who brought a title to Chicago" is a much better story for card prices than "the guy from the 2017 Astros."
Spotting the "Fake" Value
Don't get tricked by the 2025 Topps Now cards or the "Stars of the MLB" inserts you find in retail boxes at Target. They look cool, sure. They’ve got the shiny finish and the new team photos. But they aren't "investments."
The 2025 Topps Update #SMLB-71 is a common card. It's the kind of thing you buy because you like the player, not because you expect to retire on it. I see people on eBay trying to list these for $20 because "Bregman is on the Cubs now!" Don't be that person. A base card from 2025 is worth maybe two bucks on a good day.
If you want real value, stick to these:
- 2016 Bowman Chrome Autographs (Refractors only, ideally PSA 10 or BGS 9.5).
- 2017 Topps Heritage Real One Autos. Heritage has a cult following because of the vintage on-card feel.
- 2010 USA Baseball Autographs. These are the "undiscovered" gems of his catalog.
What should you do right now?
Honestly, the market for Bregman is in a bit of a "wait and see" mode. The news of the Cubs signing is still fresh. Prices have ticked up, but they haven't peaked.
If you are looking to buy, look for the 2017 Topps Chrome Autographs. They’ve been overshadowed by his Bowman stuff for years, but as he transitions into the "legend" phase of his career, the flagship Topps Chrome brand usually catches up.
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Also, keep an eye on the 2026 Topps Series 1. That will be his first "pack-pulled" card in a Cubs uniform that isn't a limited-run Topps Now. The "Crackle" parallels and the Spring Training variations will be the first big chases for Cubs fans.
The window to buy "cheap" Bregman cards closed the second he signed that contract on January 10th. But if you think he's a Hall of Famer—and the math says he’s on his way—then today's prices might still look like a bargain in five years.
Actionable Next Steps:
- Check the labels: If you own a 2016 Bowman, make sure it’s the "Chrome" version with the autograph. The paper versions are worth significantly less.
- Grade the raw cards: If you have a clean 2017 Topps Series 1 base card, it might only be worth $5 raw, but a PSA 10 can fetch a decent premium because of the high demand for "perfect" flagship rookies.
- Diversify into USA Baseball: Pick up a 2010 Bowman Chrome USA base or refractor while people are still obsessed with the 2016/2017 years; it's a great "low-entry" way to own a piece of his earliest history.