If you’ve lived in the Capital Region long enough, you know the thermometer is basically a liar. You wake up, check the 22°F reading on your phone, and think, "Okay, that's standard January." Then you step outside and the wind hits you like a physical weight. Right now, on this Friday, January 16, 2026, the albany new york weather forecast is proving that point perfectly.
The air is currently sitting at 22°F, but honestly? It feels like 10°F.
That’s thanks to a 13 mph wind coming straight out of the northwest. It’s that biting, "get back inside" kind of air. We’ve got a mostly cloudy sky overhead, which is pretty typical for this time of year when the sun decides to hide for weeks at a time. The humidity is hanging out around 52%, and the UV index is a flat 1. You don't need sunscreen; you need a heavier scarf.
The Immediate Outlook: Snow is Sneaking In
Don’t let the "mostly cloudy" daytime vibe fool you. While the high for today is expected to reach 27°F, things shift once the sun goes down. Tonight, the low drops to a crisp 17°F, and we’re looking at a 45% chance of snow showers.
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It’s not likely to be a "stay home from work" kind of blizzard, but it’s enough to make the Saturday morning coffee run a bit slick. The northwest wind is actually going to pick up a bit tonight, hitting about 15 mph. If you’re heading out to Lark Street or heading toward Wolf Road for dinner, just know that the "feels like" temperature is going to stay in those single digits.
Historically, Albany gets a bad rap for its winters. But interestingly, compared to Buffalo or Syracuse, we actually get the least amount of snow among the major New York cities. We sit in a valley. Storms often break up before they hit us, or they slide south toward the city. But the cold? The cold is real.
Breaking Down the Weekend and Beyond
If you’re planning your weekend, keep an eye on Saturday. The National Weather Service is watching a weak disturbance that could drop anywhere from half an inch to two inches of fluff across the city.
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- Saturday: Expect clouds and light snow. Highs in the low 30s.
- Next Week: Brace yourself. The long-range models—specifically the ECMWF ENS—are showing a serious Arctic air mass moving in.
By Tuesday night, there’s a better than 50% chance the mercury drops below 10°F. Tuesday itself might not even break 20°F for a daytime high. It’s the kind of deep freeze where your car makes that weird groaning sound when you start it.
People always ask me if the Farmers' Almanac is right about "mild winters." They predicted above-normal temps for this season, but as we’re seeing today, "above normal" in Albany still involves shivering. We’re currently in a transition from La Niña, which usually means more frequent, smaller snow events rather than one giant 3-foot wall of white.
Why This Forecast Matters for Your Friday
If you're commuting today, the main thing isn't the snow—it's the wind chill. The NWS out of Albany International Airport has already noted that wind chills this morning were hovering between +5°F and -5°F.
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Basically, the 10% chance of precipitation during the day is negligible. You can leave the shovel in the garage for now. But by 10:00 PM tonight, when that 45% chance of snow kicks in, you’ll want to make sure your wipers aren't frozen to the windshield.
Actionable Next Steps:
- Check your tires: With temperatures swinging between 27°F and 17°F tonight, any dampness on the road will turn to black ice.
- Layer up for Tuesday: If you need to run errands or do outdoor work, do it this weekend. The "deep freeze" coming next week is going to make 22°F feel like a heatwave.
- Humidify: Indoor air gets incredibly dry when it’s this cold. If you’re waking up with a scratchy throat, it’s the 52% outdoor humidity dropping even lower once your heater kicks in.
Keep an eye on the northwest wind. It’s the real driver of the albany new york weather forecast this week, and it isn't letting up anytime soon.