Winning the Rookie of the Year award isn't just about being the best player; it's about being the right player at the exact right moment. Look at Nick Kurtz in 2025. He didn't just show up; he demolished baseballs for the Athletics, earning all 30 first-place votes after a 36-homer campaign. Now that the dust has settled on that unanimous run, everyone is staring at the AL rookie of the year odds for 2026, trying to figure out if we’re about to see another landslide or a total dogfight.
If you’ve been following the betting markets this January, you already know the name at the top. Trey Yesavage. The Toronto Blue Jays right-hander is sitting at +200, which basically means the sportsbooks think there’s a one-in-three chance he’s holding that trophy in November.
It's kind of wild when you think about it. Most rookies are still trying to figure out where the visiting locker room is, but Yesavage spent last October striking out Shohei Ohtani in the World Series. Because postseason innings don't count toward rookie eligibility, he’s coming into 2026 with the "rookie" tag despite already being a playoff hero.
The Frontrunners: Star Power and High Stakes
Yesavage is the favorite for a reason. His splitter is absolutely disgusting—the kind of pitch that makes big-league veterans look like they're swinging garden hoses. Steamer projections already have him pegged for 162 strikeouts over 146 innings. If he stays healthy and stays in that Toronto rotation, the award is basically his to lose.
But it’s never that simple, is it?
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Right on his heels is Munetaka Murakami, the Japanese superstar who finally made the jump to the Chicago White Sox. He’s listed at +350. Murakami isn't your typical prospect; he’s a 26-year-old with a 56-homer season on his resume from Japan. The White Sox are rebuilding, which means Murakami is going to get 600 plate appearances no matter what. If he hits 30 homers, he might just snatch this award away from the pitchers.
Then you have Tatsuya Imai at +500. He signed with the Houston Astros, a team that knows exactly how to maximize a guy with elite strikeout stuff. Playing for a contender usually helps with the "narrative" side of voting, and Imai is going to get plenty of wins just by virtue of standing on the mound for Houston.
Why the Hitters Might Surprise You
Pitchers are great, but voters love a good offensive stat line. Kevin McGonigle is the name to watch here. He’s at +700 (or +600 depending on where you look) and is widely considered the best pure hitter in the minor leagues. Last year, he slashed .305/.408/.583 across three levels.
The Detroit Tigers are in a youth movement, and McGonigle is the crown jewel. He walks more than he strikes out, which is a rare trait for a 21-year-old. If he cracks the Opening Day roster and plays second base or shortstop, his WAR (Wins Above Replacement) could easily climb high enough to rival the top pitchers.
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Samuel Basallo in Baltimore is another fascinating case at +800. The Orioles actually signed him to an eight-year extension before he even established himself in the majors. That tells you everything you need to know about his ceiling. He’ll likely split time between catcher, first base, and DH, sharing the load with Adley Rutschman. The only downside? Limited playing time behind the plate might hurt his overall defensive value in the eyes of some old-school voters.
The Sleeper Picks and Dark Horses
Honestly, if you're looking for value, the middle of the pack is where the fun is. Carter Jensen for the Kansas City Royals is sitting around +1000. He had a cup of coffee in the bigs last September and hit .300 with a .941 OPS. He’s a catcher, but he’s athletic enough to DH. If he keeps that hot streak going into April, that +1000 price is going to disappear fast.
Let's look at some of the longer odds for the AL rookie of the year odds that people aren't talking about enough:
- Chase DeLauter (Guardians, +900): If he can just stay on the field, he's a five-tool monster. The injury history is the only reason his odds aren't shorter.
- Connelly Early (Red Sox, +1000): This guy is a personal favorite. He’s a lefty with a 2.33 ERA in his brief 2025 debut. Boston is going to give him every chance to be their next homegrown ace.
- Travis Bazzana (Guardians, +1300): The former No. 1 overall pick. He's got an elite eye and enough speed to be a 20/20 guy right away.
- Hagen Smith (White Sox, +5000): A total longshot, but he has the best fastball-slider combo of any lefty prospect. On a bad White Sox team, he’ll have a long leash to rack up strikeouts.
What Most People Get Wrong About Rookie Betting
The biggest mistake people make is betting on the "best prospect" rather than the player with the best path to playing time. You can have a 100-mph fastball, but if you're stuck in Triple-A until June, you aren't winning Rookie of the Year.
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Voters have also shifted toward valuing WAR and advanced metrics. It’s not just about batting average and wins anymore. A shortstop who plays elite defense and hits .260 with 15 homers (like what we saw from some of the 2025 finalists) can beat a DH who hits .280 with 25 homers because the defensive value is so much higher.
This is why someone like Colt Emerson (+2500) or Sebastian Walcott (+2500) is interesting. They play premium defensive positions. If they stick at shortstop and provide league-average offense, they’ll be at the top of the WAR leaderboards for rookies.
How to Track the Race as the Season Starts
Pay attention to Spring Training "service time" talk. It’s annoying, but it matters. If a guy like McGonigle gets sent down to "work on his defense" for two weeks in April, it’s a sign the team is trying to gain an extra year of control, but it also costs him about 50 plate appearances in the ROY race.
Keep an eye on the Red Sox rotation battles too. Both Payton Tolle (+2000) and Connelly Early are fighting for spots. If one of them locks down the #3 or #4 starter role, they’re going to have a massive head start over the guys waiting for a mid-summer call-up.
Ultimately, the 2026 race feels like Yesavage's to lose, but with international stars like Murakami and Imai entering the fold, the "rookie" class has more experience than usual. It’s going to be a fascinating year for anyone tracking the odds.
To stay ahead of the curve, you should start by monitoring the Spring Training box scores for the top five candidates. Check specifically for "Whiff Rates" for pitchers like Yesavage and Imai, as that's the best predictor of long-term MLB success. For hitters like McGonigle and Murakami, look at their "Average Exit Velocity" in March; if they're consistently hitting balls over 105 mph, their transition to big-league pitching is likely already complete.