The sound was unmistakable. A pop. Every pitcher's nightmare.
AJ Smith-Shawver was mid-delivery against the Phillies on May 29, 2025, when his right elbow basically betrayed him. Just moments before, he’d taken a 96 mph comebacker off his heel. He stayed in. He even touched 99.6 mph on the radar gun—the second-fastest pitch of his life.
Then, the pop.
It’s the kind of luck that makes you want to throw your remote through the TV if you’re a Braves fan. One minute, you’re watching a 22-year-old kid finally put it all together. The next, he’s headed for Tommy John surgery. Honestly, looking at aj smith-shawver stats from that 2025 run tells a story of "what could have been" for a rotation that desperately needed a spark.
The Breakdown: AJ Smith-Shawver Stats in 2025
Before the injury, Smith-Shawver was actually looking like a legitimate Rookie of the Year candidate. He wasn't just surviving; he was dominating for stretches. He even took a no-hitter into the 8th inning against the Blue Jays earlier that May.
Check out the raw numbers from his nine starts in 2025:
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- ERA: 3.86
- W-L Record: 3-2
- Innings Pitched: 44.1
- Strikeouts: 42
- WHIP: 1.42
- FIP: 3.90
It’s a bit of a "tale of two pitchers" situation. If you look at his first seven starts, he was untouchable with a 2.33 ERA. But those last two outings—where he gave up nine earned runs in less than six innings—really inflated the final line. Still, the underlying aj smith-shawver stats showed a kid with a 21.9% strikeout rate and a fastball that was averaging over 97 mph.
Brian Snitker, the Braves manager, didn't mince words after the diagnosis. He basically said the injury was a byproduct of the sheer velocity the kid was pumping. When you're 22 and throwing nearly 100 mph every fifth day, the human arm is sometimes just a ticking time bomb.
Why the "Stuff" Was Better Than the Box Score
If you just look at a 1.42 WHIP, you might think he was lucky. You'd be wrong.
Smith-Shawver's repertoire in 2025 became much more sophisticated than the "fastball-only" approach we saw during his cup of coffee in 2023. He started leaning heavily on a splitter that sat around 83 mph. That pitch was a weapon. In the minors, it generated a ridiculous 53% whiff rate. By the time he was facing MLB hitters in '25, he was using it 34% of the time.
He also had:
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- A "riding" four-seam fastball (used 47% of the time).
- A sharp 12-6 curveball for early counts.
- A biting slider that he shortened into more of a cutter.
The problem? Command. It's always been the knock on him. Even with the great ERA, he was walking about 10.9% of the batters he faced. That’s playing with fire. You can’t put two guys on via the walk against a team like the Dodgers or Phillies and expect to get out of it unscathed every time.
Comparing the Journey: 2023 vs. 2025
It’s wild to remember that AJ was the youngest pitcher to win a game for the Braves since Steve Avery back in the 90s. In 2023, he debuted at just 20 years old.
His career MLB stats now sit at:
- Games: 16
- Innings: 74.0
- Career ERA: 3.77
- Career SO: 66
In 2024, a strained oblique limited him to just one major league start. He spent most of that year in Triple-A Gwinnett, where he struggled with a 4.86 ERA but still punched out 104 batters. The Braves showed a ton of faith in him by giving him the ball for Game 1 of the 2024 NL Wild Card Series against San Diego. He was 21 years and 316 days old—the youngest Game 1 starter in franchise history.
He’s always been the "chosen one" in the system. But the aj smith-shawver stats show a player who has been fighting his own body as much as he’s been fighting opposing hitters.
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What Most People Get Wrong About His Recovery
People hear "Tommy John surgery" and think he's gone for exactly 12 months. It's rarely that simple. Because Smith-Shawver underwent the procedure in June 2025, his 2026 season is basically a wash.
The Braves are looking at a second-half return in 2026 at the absolute earliest. More likely, they’ll treat him with kid gloves. We saw them do this with Spencer Strider. They don't rush. With Smith-Shawver’s history of oblique and now elbow issues, the 2026 aj smith-shawver stats might just be a handful of rehab appearances in North Port.
The "internal brace" procedure was discussed—which has a shorter six-month recovery—but the team opted for the full reconstruction. That tells you the damage was significant.
The Verdict on His Future
Is he still a frontline starter? Scouts are split. Some look at the 99 mph heat and the 50% whiff rate on the splitter and see a future ace. Others look at the high walk rate and the repeated injuries and see a high-leverage closer.
The reality is that his athleticism is his biggest asset. He was a legitimate two-way player in high school and could have played third base at Texas Tech. That athleticism usually helps guys bounce back from surgery better than your average "uncoordinated" pitcher.
Actionable Insights for Fans and Fantasy Owners:
- Dynasty Leagues: Hold him. Do not sell low. His "stuff" is top-tier, and he’s still only 23. The ceiling is too high to dump for a middle-relief prospect.
- 2026 Strategy: Expect zero production. If you have an IL spot, he’s a stash, but don't count on him for your rotation.
- Braves Rotation: This injury is why the Braves kept Bryce Elder and Grant Holmes. The depth is being tested, and Smith-Shawver’s absence leaves a massive hole in the "power arm" department of the rotation.
We won't see those triple-digit fastballs for a while. But if the aj smith-shawver stats from early 2025 proved anything, it’s that when he’s healthy, he belongs at the top of a rotation. For now, it’s just a long road of rehab in the Georgia sun.