If you just glance at the back of a basketball card, AJ Johnson's first year in the league looks... well, a bit messy.
He’s currently bouncing between the Washington Wizards and their G League affiliate, the Capital City Go-Go. Honestly, if you only look at the 5.0 points per game average across his first 52 NBA appearances, you’d probably wonder why the Milwaukee Bucks used a first-round pick on him in 2024. But stats in a vacuum are dangerous.
You’ve got to look at the context of a 20-year-old kid who skipped college to play in Australia’s NBL and then got traded in a massive four-team deal involving Khris Middleton just months into his pro career.
AJ Johnson is basically the definition of a "high-ceiling" project. He’s 6'5", weighs about as much as a wet towel (160 lbs), and has a wingspan that seems to go on forever. When he actually gets minutes, the flashes of brilliance are blinding. But the consistency? That’s still very much a work in progress.
The Washington Wizards Era: A Tale of Two Stat Sheets
Since arriving in D.C. on February 6, 2025, Johnson’s usage has been all over the map.
In the 2024-25 season, he actually saw real run. We’re talking 27 minutes a night over 22 games. During that stretch, he put up a respectable 9.1 points and 3.1 assists. He even notched his first career start on March 17 against the Blazers, dropping 8 points, 7 boards, and 4 dimes.
Then came the 2025-26 season.
Suddenly, the rotation tightened up. This year, his NBA minutes have plummeted to about 7 per game. You can’t really judge a guy’s shooting rhythm when he’s only getting 2.7 field goal attempts a night. His current 1.7 PPG in the 2025-26 campaign looks rough, but it's mostly a product of "garbage time" and short bursts.
Breaking Down the NBA Numbers
- Career High Points: 20
- Career High Rebounds: 7
- Free Throw Shooting: This is a bright spot. He’s hovering around 85.4% from the charity stripe. That usually translates to a guy who will eventually find his jump shot.
- The 3-Point Struggle: He’s sitting at roughly 25.7% from deep in the NBA. That’s the hurdle. Until that number hits 33%, defenders are going to go under every screen.
Dominating the G League: The Capital City Go-Go Impact
When the Wizards send him down to the G League, Johnson looks like a different player. It's like he's playing at 1.5x speed compared to everyone else.
In his recent stints with the Capital City Go-Go, his numbers jump significantly. He’s been averaging around 12.5 points and 3.5 assists in the 2025-26 G League season. Even more impressive was his time with the Wisconsin Herd (the Bucks' affiliate) where he was dropping 13.2 points per game while shooting over 41% from three.
It’s clear the talent is there. The "speed of the game" is just a different beast at the NBA level. In the G League, his 29% usage rate shows he can be an alpha creator. In the NBA, he’s still learning how to be a "3-and-D" guy or a secondary playmaker, which is a role he's never really had to play before.
Why the NBL Stats Were a Warning Sign
A lot of people were shocked when Milwaukee took him 23rd overall because his stats with the Illawarra Hawks in Australia were... modest.
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2.9 points per game. 7.7 minutes per contest.
He was a teenager playing against grown men in one of the most physical leagues on the planet. He didn't start a single game. But scouts didn't care about the 2.9 PPG. They cared about the 38-inch vertical and the fact that he was the fastest player in the 2024 draft class.
The NBL experience gave him a professional floor, but it didn't let him show off his offensive bag. We're seeing that bag now in the G League, but the transition to the NBA "lights" is taking a bit longer.
AJ Johnson Basketball Stats: The Advanced Metrics
If you're a nerd for the deep stats, Johnson's profile is a bit of a rollercoaster.
His Assist Percentage (AST%) sits around 17.8%, which is actually pretty good for a young combo guard. It means when he’s on the floor, he’s looking for others. However, his True Shooting Percentage (TS%) is a lowly 47.8%. For context, league average is usually north of 57%.
Basically, he’s getting to his spots, but he’s not finishing yet. He gets bullied at the rim because of his slight frame. He’s currently in the 10th percentile for defensive rebounding, which makes sense—he’s a guard—but he needs to use that 6'9" wingspan to impact the game more when his shot isn't falling.
What to Watch Moving Forward
Is AJ Johnson a bust? Way too early for that.
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Is he a superstar? He’s got the tools, but the house isn't built.
The real indicator for his future will be his Effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%). Right now, it’s dragging at 40.7%. If he can get that into the high 40s by the end of 2026, the Wizards have a legitimate rotation piece. If not, he might be one of those "Quad-A" players who dominates the G League but can't quite find a home in the big show.
Actionable Insights for Fans and Analysts:
- Watch the weight gain: Keep an eye on the official Wizards roster updates. If Johnson can get up to 180 lbs without losing his burst, his finishing at the rim (currently his biggest weakness) will skyrocket.
- Ignore the PPG: Look at his 3P% on catch-and-shoot opportunities. That is the stat that determines if he stays in an NBA rotation.
- Monitor the G League splits: If he continues to shoot 40%+ from deep with the Go-Go, it’s only a matter of time before that confidence translates to the Wizards' main roster.
The kid is only 21. Most guards don't "figure it out" until 23 or 24. For AJ Johnson, the stats are just the prologue.
To get the most accurate picture of his development, track his performance in the upcoming 2026 Summer League, where he will likely be the primary option for the Wizards' developmental squad. Moving forward, focus on his defensive "deflections" and "contested shots" metrics, as his length should theoretically make him a disruptor even when his offense is stagnant.