The Las Vegas Raiders are in a weird spot. Again. If you’ve followed this team for more than five minutes, you know the drill. A carousel of quarterbacks, a rotating door of coaches, and a fanbase that’s basically just waiting for the next big draft pick to save them. But in the middle of all that chaos, there's Aidan O’Connell.
Honestly, most people have already written him off. They see a fourth-round pick who spent most of 2025 on the sidelines and think, "Yeah, he’s just another guy." But if you actually look at what happened over the last few months, the story is a lot more complicated. O’Connell isn't just some placeholder. He’s the guy who keeps surviving every attempt the Raiders make to replace him.
The 2025 Season That Wasn't
Let’s be real: 2025 was a disaster for the Silver and Black. The whole experiment with Pete Carroll coming out of retirement and Geno Smith taking the reins? It flopped. Hard. The Raiders finished 3-14, and the relationship between Geno and the fans turned toxic fast.
Aidan O’Connell was supposed to be the "safe" backup, but his luck ran out before the season even really started. He fractured his right wrist in the preseason finale against Arizona. Just like that, he was on Injured Reserve. While the Raiders were losing ten games in a row, O’Connell was stuck in a plastic cast, watching Kenny Pickett and Geno Smith struggle to move the chains.
He didn't get back onto the active roster until late November. By then, the season was already toast. But then came Week 18.
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The Kansas City Win Nobody Expected
The Raiders hadn't beaten the Kansas City Chiefs at Allegiant Stadium. Ever. It was a "curse" that hung over the stadium like a cloud. With Geno Smith sidelined with an ankle injury and Kenny Pickett looking completely lost, Pete Carroll finally turned back to O’Connell for the season finale.
It wasn't a "stat-stuffer" performance. He went 10-of-22 for 102 yards. That’s not exactly Mahomes-level production. But he did something the other guys couldn't do all year: he didn't blink. He played the final three quarters, avoided the massive mistakes that had haunted the team all season, and helped guide them to a 14-12 win.
Think about that. The Raiders' only win against the Chiefs in Las Vegas came with O'Connell under center. It’s kinda poetic, isn't it? He’s not the flashiest player, but he has this weird way of being the only adult in the room when things get messy.
Why the Numbers Tell a Different Story
If you look at his career stats, O’Connell’s numbers are actually better than you’d think for a "failed" prospect.
- Career Passer Rating: 84.1
- TD-INT Ratio: 20 to 11
- Completion Percentage: 62.0%
In Raiders history, those are actually top-tier numbers for a quarterback in his first 17 starts. He’s tied for the most games with a 100+ passer rating among any Raiders QB in their first 20 starts.
The problem is the "ceiling." Coaches like Antonio Pierce (back when he was running things) praised O'Connell's ability to "solve problems" and adjust protections at the line. He has a high-level NFL brain. But he has a "replacement-level" arm. He isn't going to outrun a linebacker, and he isn't going to throw a 60-yard rope while falling out of bounds.
The Fernando Mendoza Factor
Now we get to the part everyone is talking about. The 2026 NFL Draft. Since the Raiders landed the No. 1 overall pick, everyone assumes they are taking Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza or maybe a guy like Jalen Milroe.
Where does that leave Aidan?
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Well, he’s still under contract through 2026. He costs next to nothing against the cap—about $1.27 million. In an NFL where a decent backup costs $8 million a year, O’Connell is a massive bargain.
But it’s more than just money. If the Raiders draft a rookie, they need a "bridge." They need someone who knows the playbook, doesn't cause drama, and can actually win a game if the rookie gets hurt. Kenny Pickett didn't show he could be that guy in 2025. Geno Smith is likely getting cut or traded after scrubbing his social media of all things Raiders.
That leaves Aidan O’Connell as the last man standing.
What Most People Get Wrong
The biggest misconception about O'Connell is that he's a "failed starter." In reality, he's a "successful fourth-rounder." If you get 17 starts and 20 touchdowns out of a guy picked at 135th overall, you’ve won that value proposition.
The Raiders' issues haven't been O'Connell's arm; they've been the lack of a cohesive plan. He’s had three different offensive coordinators in three years. No quarterback, especially a young one without elite physical traits, is going to thrive in that kind of instability.
The Path Forward for No. 12
So, what happens now? Pete Carroll is out, a new regime is coming in, and the roster is about to get a massive facelift. If you’re a Raiders fan, you should expect the following:
- The Rookie Competition: The Raiders will draft a QB at No. 1. That’s a lock. But don't be surprised if O'Connell is the "starter" heading into training camp. New coaches love having a veteran who can mentor the kid.
- The Trade Value: If a team loses their starter in August (like the Raiders did with O'Connell this past year), Aidan becomes a very attractive trade piece. He’s cheap, experienced, and smart.
- The Safety Net: If the Raiders decide to "sit" their rookie for a year (the Jordan Love model), O'Connell is the most logical choice to lead the offense. He’s proven he can beat the Chiefs. He’s proven he can handle the pressure of the Vegas spotlight.
Aidan O'Connell might never be the "Face of the Franchise" on a billboard at Caesars Palace. But he’s proven he belongs in the league. In a season where everything went wrong for the Raiders, he was the only one who ended it on a high note.
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The smart move for the next Raiders GM isn't to dump O'Connell to make room for the new guy. It's to keep him around as the ultimate insurance policy. Because if 2025 taught us anything, it’s that in Las Vegas, you're always one play away from needing a guy who knows how to solve problems.
Your Next Steps for Following the Raiders Offseason
If you want to keep tabs on how this quarterback room shakes out, you need to watch three specific things over the next few weeks:
- The Coaching Search: Keep an eye on who the Raiders hire as Head Coach. If they bring in a "quarterback whisperer" like Jeff Hafley, O'Connell's role as a mentor becomes even more likely.
- Geno Smith's Transaction: Once the Raiders officially move on from Geno, look at the depth chart. If they don't sign another veteran, O'Connell is effectively the QB1 until the draft.
- Pro Day Season: Watch how the Raiders interact with Fernando Mendoza and Jalen Milroe. The "vibe" of the front office will tell you if they want a clean break from the past or a steady transition involving the current roster.
Don't count out the guy from Purdue just yet. He’s used to being the underdog, and he’s still got plenty of ball left to play in the Silver and Black.