Everything changed in the AFC this year. Honestly, if you told me in August that Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson would be watching the Divisional Round from their living rooms, I’d have called you crazy. But here we are. It is Sunday, January 18, 2026, and the AFC standings aren't just a list of numbers on a screen anymore—they’ve become a bracket of destiny.
The Denver Broncos just sent a message to the rest of the league. Yesterday’s overtime thriller at Empower Field at Mile High wasn't just a win; it was a statement. By taking down Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills 33-30, the Broncos secured their spot in the AFC Championship. Bo Nix is playing like a guy who doesn't know he's only in his second year.
Where the AFC Standings Settled After Week 18
The regular season was a bloodbath. We saw a three-way tie at the top for a minute there, with Denver, New England, and Jacksonville all sitting at 13-4 or better. Ultimately, the AFC standings gave the crown to the Broncos because of the "common opponents" tiebreaker. That No. 1 seed is gold. It gave them the only bye week in the conference, while everyone else had to beat each other up in the Wild Card round.
If you're looking at the final seeds, it looked like this:
- Denver Broncos (14-3) - AFC West Champs
- New England Patriots (14-3) - AFC East Champs
- Jacksonville Jaguars (13-4) - AFC South Champs
- Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7) - AFC North Champs
- Houston Texans (12-5) - Wild Card
- Buffalo Bills (12-5) - Wild Card
- Los Angeles Chargers (11-6) - Wild Card
Notice the gap between the top three and the rest. The AFC North was weirdly "mid" this year, with the Steelers winning the division at 10-7 while the Texans and Bills actually had better records as Wild Cards. That's just the way the cookie crumbles in the NFL.
The Wild Card Chaos
Last weekend was a blur. The Jacksonville Jaguars, who looked like the hottest team in football entering January, got bounced immediately. The Bills went into EverBank Stadium and silenced the Duval crowd with a 27-24 win. It was a classic "Josh Allen puts the team on his back" performance, though it clearly drained them for their matchup against Denver.
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Meanwhile, the New England Patriots handled business. Drake Maye looked every bit the MVP candidate people claimed he was, leading a 16-3 dismantling of the Chargers. Defense still wins championships, or at least Wild Card games, and Mike Vrabel has that unit playing like the old-school Dynasty days.
The biggest shock? The Texans went into Pittsburgh and absolutely smoked the Steelers 30-6. C.J. Stroud didn't look bothered by the cold or the Terrible Towels. That win set up the game happening right now: Houston at New England.
What Really Matters in the Divisional Round
The AFC standings told us who was "best" over 17 games, but the Divisional Round tells us who can survive. The Broncos are already through. They’re sitting back, icing their bruises, and waiting to see who they host next Sunday.
If the Texans pull off the upset against the Patriots today, they’ll head to Denver. If the Patriots win, we get a 1-vs-2 seed showdown for a trip to the Super Bowl.
It’s kinda wild to think about the teams that didn't make it. The Kansas City Chiefs finished 6-11. Let that sink in. A six-game losing streak to end the season basically ended an era. The Baltimore Ravens also collapsed down the stretch, finishing 8-9 and missing out on the final Wild Card spot because the Chargers had the tiebreaker.
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Why the Tiebreakers Mattered More This Year
You can't talk about the AFC standings without mentioning how close the New England vs. Denver race was. Both finished 14-3. If New England had snagged that No. 1 seed, the path to Super Bowl LX would be going through Foxborough. Instead, the Patriots had to play an extra game against the Chargers.
Fatigue is a real factor here. Denver had two weeks to prepare for the Bills. Buffalo had six days. You saw it in the fourth quarter yesterday—the Bills’ pass rush just ran out of gas, and Nix was able to scramble for those crucial first downs in overtime.
How to Read the Current Playoff Bracket
If you're trying to keep track of where things stand this afternoon, here’s the basic flow:
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- AFC Championship Game: Winner of Texans/Patriots @ Denver Broncos.
- When: Sunday, Jan. 25, 2026, at 3:00 p.m. EST.
- Where to Watch: CBS and Paramount+.
The "Road to Santa Clara" (where Super Bowl LX is being held) is officially narrowed down to three teams in the AFC. The Broncos are the favorites, mostly because of that home-field advantage. Winning at altitude in late January is a nightmare for visiting teams.
Actionable Steps for the Rest of the Postseason
If you’re following the action, don't just check the scores. Keep an eye on the injury reports for the winning teams. The Broncos lost linebacker Dre Greenlaw for a chunk of yesterday’s game, and his status for the AFC Championship will be huge.
- Monitor the Betting Lines: Now that Denver is locked in, the "Odds to Win AFC" will shift drastically depending on the outcome of the Patriots/Texans game.
- Check the Weather in Denver: If the forecast calls for snow next Sunday, it favors the Broncos' heavy run game over a pass-heavy offense like New England’s.
- Watch the AFC South Rivalry Context: If Houston wins today, they bring a specific type of momentum. They’ve already beaten the Steelers and now potentially the Patriots on the road. That kind of "road warrior" energy is dangerous.
The 2025-26 season has been a total reset for the conference. The old guard is out, and a new crop of quarterbacks is fighting for the throne. Whether it's Bo Nix, Drake Maye, or C.J. Stroud heading to the Super Bowl, the AFC standings proved one thing: the era of predictable dominance is officially over.