The AFC playoff standings NFL fans are staring at right now look like a crime scene for some and a miracle for others. If you’re a Denver fan, you’re currently oscillating between pure euphoria and absolute dread. One minute you're celebrating a 33-30 overtime thriller against the Buffalo Bills, and the next, you're hearing that Bo Nix is done for the year with an ankle injury.
That’s playoff football in January 2026. Brutal.
We are officially in the thick of the Divisional Round. The bracket is shrinking. The "pretenders" were mostly weeded out during a Wild Card weekend that saw the Jacksonville Jaguars and Pittsburgh Steelers get sent home early. Now, the power dynamic in the AFC is shifting in real-time as we wait to see who will travel to Mile High next week for the AFC Championship.
The Current State of the AFC Playoff Standings NFL
Right now, the Denver Broncos sit at the top of the heap, but they are a wounded No. 1 seed. By securing the top spot with a 14-3 regular-season record, they earned the right to host throughout the playoffs. They took care of business against Buffalo yesterday, but the cost was astronomical. Losing your starting quarterback in the Divisional Round is the kind of narrative twist even a Hollywood writer would call "a bit much."
Behind them, the New England Patriots (14-3) are the No. 2 seed and look incredibly dangerous. They dismantled the Los Angeles Chargers 16-3 in the Wild Card round. It wasn't flashy, but it was surgical. They host the No. 5 seed Houston Texans today at 3:00 p.m. ET at Gillette Stadium. This game is basically the "Who gets to face a backup QB in Denver?" bowl.
The Texans are the wild card in every sense of the word. They finished the season 12-5 and absolutely throttled the Steelers 30-6 last Monday. C.J. Stroud is playing like he’s already got three rings, and honestly, nobody in the AFC wants to deal with that offense right now.
How the AFC Bracket Broke Down
Let's look at the path that got us here. It wasn't a straight line.
The Jaguars, despite being the No. 3 seed and winning the AFC South, couldn't hold off Josh Allen and the Bills in the Wild Card round, losing a heartbreaker 27-24. Then you had the No. 4 seed Steelers, who won the AFC North but looked completely outclassed by Houston.
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Here is the "survivor" list as of Sunday morning, January 18:
- Denver Broncos (1): Advanced to AFC Championship after beating Buffalo.
- New England Patriots (2): Playing Houston today.
- Houston Texans (5): Playing New England today.
- Buffalo Bills (6): Eliminated by Denver in the Divisional Round.
- Jacksonville Jaguars (3): Eliminated in Wild Card.
- Pittsburgh Steelers (4): Eliminated in Wild Card.
- Los Angeles Chargers (7): Eliminated in Wild Card.
The Bo Nix Factor and Denver’s Vulnerability
It's the elephant in the room. You can't talk about the AFC playoff standings NFL without addressing the fact that the favorites just lost their engine. Sean Payton confirmed the ankle injury is season-ending.
Denver’s defense is still elite—they forced Josh Allen into some questionable throws and held the Bills' run game when it mattered most—but can they win a title with a backup? History says it’s possible (hello, Nick Foles), but it changes the betting lines instantly. After the win, Denver's Super Bowl odds actually lengthened from +325 to +1000 at some books. That tells you everything you need to know.
If New England wins today, the AFC Championship will be a rematch of two 14-3 titans. If Houston wins, you get the red-hot C.J. Stroud going into a hostile, thin-air environment against a team that’s trying to find its soul on offense.
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The Houston vs. New England Chess Match
This afternoon's game is the final piece of the AFC puzzle. New England's defense is the best remaining unit in the conference. They held the Chargers to just a single field goal. Think about that. In a pass-happy league, they locked down the red zone for 60 minutes.
Houston, meanwhile, is the ultimate momentum team. They’ve won ten of their last eleven games dating back to the regular season. The mismatch to watch is the Texans' offensive line against the Patriots' front seven. If Stroud has time, he’ll pick apart the secondary. If he’s running for his life, it’s going to be a long flight back to Texas.
What's Next for the AFC
The winner of the Texans-Patriots game will fly to Denver for the AFC Championship on Sunday, January 25. That game is scheduled for the 3:00 p.m. ET window on CBS.
If you're looking at the big picture, the AFC still feels like it’s New England’s to lose now that Nix is out. However, don't sleep on the "nobody believes in us" energy brewing in the Broncos' locker room. They still have the home-field advantage. Mile High in late January is a nightmare for visiting kickers and oxygen-dependent humans alike.
Actionable Insights for NFL Fans:
- Watch the Backup QB Reps: Keep an eye on Denver's practice reports this week. The chemistry between the second-stringer and the starting wideouts will decide the AFC title.
- Hedge Your Bets: If you have a Denver futures ticket, now might be the time to look at New England or Houston to cover your bases.
- Monitor the Weather: The forecast for Denver on January 25 is already looking snowy. That favors a run-heavy team, which might actually help Denver keep the game close regardless of who is under center.
Check the final score of the Texans-Patriots game tonight to see the locked-in AFC Championship matchup.