Is ADT just a company that puts blue stickers on windows? If you look at the adt security stock price lately, you might think it's a slow-moving utility. It isn't. Not even close.
Honestly, the ticker (NYSE: ADT) has been acting like a coiled spring. While the "smart home" hype of the last decade faded for many, ADT spent that time quietly rebuilding its entire engine. We are talking about a massive shift from a hardware-heavy installation business to a high-margin, software-driven recurring revenue machine.
Right now, the stock is hovering around the $8.15 mark. It’s a weird spot. It’s well above its 52-week low of $6.79 but still shy of the $8.94 peak we saw earlier. But focusing on the daily ticker dance is exactly how most people miss the bigger picture.
The Google and State Farm Factor
You’ve probably heard about the partnerships. They aren’t just press release fluff.
Google owns about 6% of the company. State Farm owns roughly 15%. Think about that for a second. When the world’s biggest data company and one of the largest insurers both take massive stakes, they aren't looking for a quick flip on the adt security stock price. They want the data.
Specifically, they want the "Trusted Neighbor" tech and the integration with Nest. State Farm is betting that smart security can prevent claims before they happen. Water leak sensors, fire detection, and AI-monitored cameras are cheaper than a $50,000 payout for a flooded basement.
- Google's Investment: $450 million for a 6.6% stake initially, plus ongoing "success fund" commitments.
- State Farm's Entry: $1.2 billion at roughly $9 per share.
- The Math: If the big players bought in at $9, the current $8.15 price starts looking like a discount.
Why the market is "kinda" grumpy
The bears will point to the debt. It’s a fair point. ADT has historically carried a heavy load on its balance sheet. However, they just completed a $1 billion senior secured notes offering due in 2033. They are pushing maturities out and cleaning up the mess.
Also, they dumped their solar business. That was a distraction. It bled cash and confused investors. By cutting the cord on solar, ADT effectively signaled they are going back to what they do best: monitoring your front door and charging you a monthly fee for the privilege.
Breaking Down the Numbers
Let's talk about Recurring Monthly Revenue (RMR). This is the holy grail for ADT.
In their latest 2025 reports, RMR hit a record $362 million. That is the money that shows up every month whether they sell a new camera or not. It’s predictable. It’s sticky. The attrition rate—the number of people who cancel—is sitting around 12.6% to 13%. For a subscription business, that’s actually pretty solid, especially with the housing market being as wonky as it has been.
- Revenue Growth: 4% to 7% year-over-year. Not "moon" growth, but steady.
- Free Cash Flow: They generated $500 million in adjusted free cash flow in the first half of 2025 alone.
- Shareholder Returns: They’ve been aggressively buying back shares. Over 78 million shares were repurchased in 2025. This reduces the supply and, theoretically, boosts the value of the remaining shares.
What Analysts Think (and Why They Disagree)
The consensus is basically a "Hold," but the range is wild.
Morgan Stanley has been leaning toward an "Equal-Weight" rating with a target around $9.00. Meanwhile, some analysts at Citi have been more bullish, eyeing a $10.00 to $10.40 price target.
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On the flip side, Barclays has been more skeptical, previously hanging a $7.00 target on it. Why the gap? It comes down to valuation multiples. If you view ADT as a stagnant hardware company, $7.00 makes sense. If you view it as a tech-integrated service provider with 6 million subscribers, $10.00 seems cheap.
"Our business we feel is very resilient in most any environment," CEO Jim DeVries said during a recent earnings call. He's betting that even in a recession, people don't cancel their home security. They’d rather skip a few Starbucks trips than worry about a break-in.
The AI Wildcard
There is a lot of talk about AI in the adt security stock price discussion. By the end of Q1 2025, ADT projected that nearly 90% of their service chats would be handled by AI agents.
This isn't just about being "trendy." It’s about margins. If you don't have to pay a human to answer a question about how to change a battery in a window sensor, that money goes straight to the bottom line.
Is the Stock Undervalued?
If you look at the P/E ratio, which sits around 11 to 13 depending on the day, ADT looks like a value play. The forward P/E is even lower. Compare that to pure tech plays, and it's a steal. But you have to be comfortable with the slow-and-steady nature of the beast.
The company is currently paying a dividend of $0.22 per year, which is roughly a 2.6% to 2.7% yield. It’s not a "get rich quick" stock. It’s a "collect the check and wait for the re-rating" stock.
Common Misconceptions
- "DIY is killing them": Actually, ADT has its own DIY kits now. They realized people want options, and they’ve integrated with Yale and Google to offer them.
- "The debt is a ticking bomb": They’ve been refinancing at lower rates and using their massive cash flow to pay it down. It's manageable now.
- "It’s a legacy brand": Their ADT+ platform is a modern cloud-based system. They are moving away from the old-school proprietary panels.
Practical Steps for Watching ADT
If you are tracking the adt security stock price, don't just look at the percentage change today. Look at the RMR growth. That is the heartbeat of the company.
Check the quarterly attrition rates. If that number starts climbing toward 15%, be worried. If it stays near 12%, the machine is working. Keep an eye on the partnership milestones with State Farm—if they start offering massive insurance discounts for ADT users, that’s a huge customer acquisition engine that costs ADT almost nothing.
The "Trusted Neighbor" rollout is the next big thing to watch. It allows users to give temporary, secure access to neighbors or delivery drivers. It’s the kind of feature that makes the service "un-cancellable."
Ultimately, ADT is a boring business becoming a smart business. The stock price usually takes a while to reflect that kind of transition. You’ve got to decide if you want to wait for the market to wake up or if you’d rather chase the next shiny AI startup. One has 150 years of history and millions of paying customers; the other probably has a cool logo and a lot of "burn."