The A-League isn't exactly the Premier League, but try telling that to the 10,000+ fans who crammed into Coopers Stadium recently. When we talk about Adelaide United vs Brisbane Roar, it's usually about two "founding" clubs trying to recapture the glory days of the mid-2010s. This season, though, things got weird. We’ve seen a shift in power that nobody really predicted back in August.
Brisbane has been playing this strange, gritty brand of football under their current regime. They aren't flashy. Honestly, they’re kinda frustrating to watch if you’re a neutral looking for tiki-taka. But they win. They beat Adelaide 1-0 back in December thanks to a 95th-minute heartbreaker from Christopher Long, and ever since then, the Reds have been looking for blood.
The January 2026 Context: Where Things Stand
Right now, as of January 15, 2026, the league table looks a bit topsy-turvy. Brisbane Roar is sitting comfortably in 3rd place with 18 points. They’ve managed five wins from ten games, which is a massive improvement over their form in recent years. Adelaide, on the other hand, is languishing in 6th. They’ve got 15 points, but the vibe in South Australia is a bit anxious. They just haven't been able to string together consecutive wins in the new year.
Next week, on January 24, they meet again at Suncorp Stadium. That match is basically the "six-pointer" of the summer. If Adelaide loses, they’re looking at a scrap just to stay in the top six. If they win? They leapfrog the Roar and suddenly the narrative changes from "crisis" to "contenders."
The Jay O'Shea Problem
You can't talk about Brisbane Roar right now without mentioning Jay O'Shea. He’s the engine. Or he was the engine until he twisted his ankle against Melbourne City. The news just dropped yesterday that the skipper is out for at least a month. That is huge. Without O'Shea, the Roar’s midfield looks... well, a bit empty. They’ve got Sam Klein and Georgios Vrakas, but neither of them has that "X-factor" that O'Shea provides when a game is stuck at 0-0 in the 70th minute.
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Adelaide United is facing its own selection headaches. They just named a new striker, Ajak Riak, in their extended squad. Fans are desperate to see him start because, let’s be real, the Reds have been toothless lately. They lost 4-0 to Central Coast recently, a result that sent shockwaves through the Hindmarsh faithful.
Adelaide United vs Brisbane Roar: The Head-to-Head Reality
If you look at the all-time stats, it’s remarkably close. In 62 previous meetings, Brisbane has 21 wins and Adelaide has 28. It’s one of the most balanced rivalries in Australian sport.
- Average goals per game: 2.6
- Most common scoreline: 1-1 or 2-1
- Total red cards in last 10 games: 3 (it gets spicy)
The December 7 clash was a classic example of this matchup's nature. Adelaide dominated possession. They had 14 shots to Brisbane's 6. But in the 95th minute, Christopher Long found a pocket of space and silenced the home crowd. That’s the "Roar DNA" lately—soaking up pressure and hitting like a cobra.
Why Adelaide Struggles at Home
It’s weird, right? Coopers Stadium is supposed to be a fortress. The fans are right on top of the pitch. But this season, the Reds have actually looked better on the road. Maybe it’s the pressure of the "Original Rivalry" expectations. When they played Melbourne Victory at home just a couple of days ago, the atmosphere was electric for the Pride Cup, but you could feel the tension every time a pass went astray.
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Tactical Breakdown: What Most People Get Wrong
Most pundits say Adelaide is a "possession" team. They aren't. Not really. Under their current setup, they are a transition team that gets forced into having the ball. When teams like Brisbane sit deep, Adelaide's midfielders—guys like Stefan Mauk and Ryan Kitto—find themselves passing sideways. It’s "U-shaped" football.
Brisbane, conversely, has leaned into their identity as the league’s most annoying team to play against. They use a low block that would make Jose Mourinho proud. With Justin Vidic returning to the squad after being rested, they have that aerial threat back. Vidic scored a last-ditch header on New Year's Eve against the Mariners, and he’s exactly the kind of player that gives Adelaide’s central defenders nightmares.
Key Matchups to Watch
- Ajak Riak vs. Hosine Bility: If Riak starts for Adelaide, he’ll be up against Bility. Bility is physical, but he can be caught out by pace.
- Ryan Kitto vs. Henry Hore: Kitto is the heart of Adelaide, but Hore is a nippy winger who loves to exploit the space behind overlapping fullbacks.
- The Midfield Battle: Without O'Shea, can Brisbane hold the ball? If Adelaide wins the middle of the park, it’s game over for the Roar.
The "Ninja" Factor: Don't Ignore the Women's Game
It’s worth noting that the Adelaide United vs Brisbane Roar rivalry is just as fierce in the Ninja A-League (the women's competition). Just last month, Brisbane’s women went to Adelaide and put on a clinic, winning 3-1. Bente Jansen was the star that night, scoring a brace. The Roar women are currently showing the men exactly how to dismantle the Adelaide defense. It’s a club-wide trend right now; Brisbane seems to have Adelaide’s number across the board.
Actionable Insights for Fans and Punters
If you're looking at the upcoming January 24 fixture, there are a few things you should keep in mind before putting any skin in the game or even just making a prediction in the group chat.
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- The "No O'Shea" Stat: Brisbane's win rate drops by nearly 30% when Jay O'Shea doesn't start. He is the tactical pivot.
- Adelaide’s Second Half Fade: The Reds have conceded 60% of their goals this season after the 60th minute. They start fast but get leggy.
- The Draw is Live: Historically, these two draw a lot. With Brisbane missing their playmaker and Adelaide struggling for confidence, a 0-0 or 1-1 is a very high-probability outcome.
- Check the Weather: Suncorp in late January is a humidity trap. It favors the home side who trains in that "sauna" every day.
The best way to follow this is to keep an eye on the official A-Leagues "Ins and Outs" lists that drop every Thursday. If Riak is confirmed as a starter for the Reds, the odds will likely shift in Adelaide's favor. However, until Adelaide proves they can break down a disciplined defense, the smart money stays on a low-scoring affair.
Keep your eyes on the 90th minute. In the last three games between these two, a goal has been scored after the 85th minute twice. It’s never over until the whistle blows.
To get the most out of the next match, watch the first 15 minutes of the second half. If Adelaide hasn't made a sub by the 60th minute, they usually start to leak chances. That's when the Roar—even without O'Shea—will look to pounce.