The air usually gets a little thinner in Los Angeles around mid-January. It’s that weird, frantic energy where publicists stop sleeping and actors start pretending they don't care about gold-plated statues. Well, they do care. A lot. Academy Awards Oscar nominations are essentially the industry's version of a high-stakes report card, and the 98th edition is already shaping up to be a total bloodbath of talent.
Honestly, the "precursor" awards—the Globes, the SAGs, the BAFTAs—are great for a vibe check, but they often lead us astray. People think a win at the Golden Globes means an Oscar lock. Wrong. The voting bodies are entirely different. While the Globes are voted on by journalists, the Oscars are decided by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS)—nearly 10,000 industry professionals who actually make the movies. That’s why we see those massive "snubs" that leave everyone screaming at their televisions.
When the Chaos Happens: The 2026 Timeline
You’ve got to mark your calendars because the reveal is a 5:30 a.m. PT wake-up call for the West Coast. On Thursday, January 22, 2026, Danielle Brooks and Lewis Pullman will stand in front of the world to announce the official nominees.
It’s a brutal morning.
The 98th Oscars ceremony itself is scheduled for Sunday, March 15, 2026, at the Dolby Theatre. Conan O’Brien is coming back to host for the second year in a row. People actually liked him last year—a rarity for Oscar hosts. His "madcap" energy brought in nearly 20 million viewers in 2025, and the Academy is clearly hoping lightning strikes twice.
The Heavy Hitters and the "Sure Things"
If you haven't heard of One Battle After Another, you probably aren't paying attention. Paul Thomas Anderson’s latest is basically the titan of this season. Leonardo DiCaprio and Chase Infiniti are lead contenders, though the category placement for Infiniti has been a point of massive debate among critics. Is she a Lead? Or is she Supporting? The Academy's branch will decide that for themselves regardless of what the studio's "For Your Consideration" ads say.
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Then there's Sinners. Ryan Coogler and Michael B. Jordan are like the Jordan and Pippen of modern cinema. They just don't miss. The film has been showing up on every single technical shortlist, from Sound to Visual Effects.
And let's talk about the pink (and green) elephant in the room: Wicked: For Good.
"The only two films to appear on every shortlist they were eligible for are Sinners and Wicked: For Good." — Industry Shortlist Data, December 2025.
It’s rare for a massive, "popcorn" musical to sweep the technicals while maintaining a lead in the acting categories, but Ariana Grande’s Supporting Actress buzz is very real. She’s not just a pop star in a hat; she’s a legitimate contender.
What Most People Get Wrong About Nominations
Most fans think the Best Picture race is just a popularity contest. It's actually a preferential ballot system.
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This is where it gets nerdy. Voters don't just pick one movie; they rank them 1 through 10. If a movie is everyone’s number two choice, it can actually win over a movie that is half the room's number one choice but hated by the other half. This is why "divisive" movies often fail to secure the top spot, even if they have the most "passion" behind them.
The "International" Surge
We’re seeing a massive shift in how the Academy views non-English films. It’s no longer just a "Foreign Film" category (now called Best International Feature). Films like The Secret Agent (Brazil) and Sentimental Value (Norway) are being discussed for Best Picture. This isn't a "diversity" play; it’s a reflection of the fact that the Academy is significantly more international than it was ten years ago. Nearly 20% of the voting body now resides outside the United States.
The Acting Categories: A Total Logjam
The Best Actor race is particularly crowded this year. You've got:
- Timothée Chalamet in Marty Supreme (The A24 darling)
- Leonardo DiCaprio in One Battle After Another (The veteran)
- Michael B. Jordan in Sinners (The powerhouse)
- Wagner Moura in The Secret Agent (The international wildcard)
- Ethan Hawke in Blue Moon (The critical favorite)
If you’re Michael B. Jordan, you’re looking at that list and realizing that even a perfect performance might not get you in. That’s the "snub" factory in action.
On the actress side, Jessie Buckley is a force of nature in Hamnet. Chloé Zhao’s direction has pushed Buckley into a "lock" position, but the fifth spot is a toss-up between Emma Stone (Bugonia) and maybe a surprise run from someone like Renate Reinsve. Stone already has two Oscars. Does the Academy want to give her a third this soon? Historically, they get stingy.
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The Technical Shortlists: The "Small" Movies that Matter
People ignore the shortlists for Documentary and Short Films, but that’s where the real heart of the Academy Awards Oscar nominations lives. Look out for Homebound from India or No Other Choice from South Korea. These are the films that often provide the most emotional moments of the night.
In the Visual Effects and Sound categories, expect Avatar: Fire and Ash to dominate the conversation, alongside F1. These movies are built for the technical branches. If a film like Frankenstein or Bugonia sneaks in here, it’s a huge signal that the film has broad support across the entire Academy, not just the "arty" branches.
Why This Matters for You
If you're a casual viewer, the nominations give you a curated "must-watch" list for the next two months. If you're a cinephile, it's about the legacy. A nomination changes the "quote" for an actor for the rest of their career. It adds millions to a film's streaming value.
To stay ahead of the curve, follow the guild awards—the PGA (Producers), DGA (Directors), and SAG (Actors). Those are the real predictors. The producers often match the Best Picture winner because they use the same preferential ballot. If you want to win your Oscar pool, watch the PGA winners.
Keep an eye on the official announcement on January 22. It’s going to be a wild morning, and honestly, half of our "sure things" will probably be out the window by breakfast.
Actionable Insights for Awards Season:
- Watch the PGA Winners: The Producers Guild is the most accurate predictor of Best Picture due to the shared "preferential ballot" system.
- Don't Ignore the Shortlists: Films that show up on the Makeup, Sound, and Score shortlists are much more likely to secure a Best Picture nod.
- Check International Momentum: Follow the BAFTA longlists; they often signal which international films have the support of the European contingent of the Academy.
- Audit the "Snub" Narrative: Often, a "snub" isn't a lack of quality, but a lack of a cohesive campaign. The "For Your Consideration" (FYC) budget matters more than most people want to admit.