Honestly, if you’ve been watching the 9988 HK share price lately, you’ve probably felt like you’re on a roller coaster that only goes in circles. One day it's a "buy the dip" darling, and the next, it's the stock everyone loves to hate.
As of January 13, 2026, the stock is sitting around HK$159.90.
That’s a huge jump—over 7% in a single day. But let’s be real. If you’ve held this since the dark days of 2022, you aren’t popping champagne just yet. You're probably wondering if this is another "fake out" or if the "Make Alibaba Great Again" (MAGA) era is actually happening.
The Jack Ma Factor: He’s Back (Sorta)
People kept waiting for a sign. A signal. A handshake.
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In late 2025, they got it. Jack Ma and President Xi Jinping reportedly shared a handshake that sent shockwaves through the Hong Kong exchange. For years, Ma was the ghost of Hangzhou—rarely seen, never heard. Now? He’s back on campus, apparently requesting multiple strategy updates a day and pushing the company to dump billions into subsidies to fight off JD.com and PDD Holdings.
The market treats Ma like a lucky charm. His "moral authority," as Duncan Clark (author of Alibaba: The House That Jack Ma Built) puts it, still moves the needle. It’s not just sentiment; it’s a signal that the regulatory storm that nearly destroyed the company has finally passed.
Cloud is the New E-commerce
Forget the boxes. Forget the delivery scooters.
The real reason the 9988 HK share price is showing signs of life is the Cloud Intelligence Group. In the most recent quarterly reports, cloud revenue surged by about 26%. More importantly, AI-related revenue has been hitting triple-digit growth for several quarters straight.
- Qwen Models: Alibaba’s own AI models are now being integrated into everything from SAP’s global services to local logistics.
- Infrastructure: They’ve committed a staggering $53 billion to AI and cloud infrastructure over the next three years.
- Comparison: While Amazon’s AWS grows at around 17%, Alibaba’s cloud unit is pacing closer to Google Cloud’s 32% growth rate.
This pivot is basically a "bet the farm" moment. The core e-commerce business—Taobao and Tmall—is struggling. Why? Because China’s domestic spending is, well, kinda sluggish. Deflationary pressures and a massive price war in food delivery (Ele.me vs. Meituan) have eaten into the margins.
What the Technicals are Screaming
You’ve probably seen the charts.
The 9988 HK stock recently broke above its 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). In the world of technical analysis, that’s usually a "golden" signal. Some analysts are even calling for a spike toward the HK$192 level, which would be a roughly 25% gain from where we started the year.
But it’s not all sunshine.
If the price drops below HK$140, the whole bullish narrative falls apart. We’re currently in a "wedge" pattern. These usually end in a violent breakout—either a moonshot or a cliff-dive. Right now, with volume rising alongside the price, the momentum looks like it’s leaning toward the bulls.
The "Anti-Involution" Policy
There's a word you’ll hear a lot in 2026: Neijuan, or "involution."
It basically describes the cutthroat, soul-crushing competition where everyone works harder but nobody gets ahead. Beijing has started signaling a crackdown on this "vicious" price competition. If the government actually forces companies to stop the 1-cent price wars in food delivery and e-commerce, Alibaba’s margins will recover instantly.
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Investors are banking on this "reflation" trade. If China can nudge its economy out of the deflationary funk, 9988 HK becomes the easiest way to play the recovery.
Your Move: Actionable Insights
So, what do you actually do with this?
First, stop looking at the 2020 highs. That era is gone. Alibaba is no longer a monopoly; it’s a tech-driven conglomerate fighting for every inch of market share.
If you're looking for a entry point, keep a close eye on the HK$150 support level. If it holds that floor during the next market dip, it shows the "new" Alibaba has found its base. Also, mark February 19, 2026 on your calendar. That’s the next earnings date. The market will be looking for one thing: did the AI revenue continue its triple-digit streak?
If the answer is yes, that HK$192 target might actually be conservative.
Immediate Next Steps:
- Check the 200-day EMA: If the price is consistently staying above this line, the long-term trend has officially shifted from bearish to bullish.
- Monitor the Cloud-to-Retail Ratio: Look at the upcoming February earnings. If Cloud revenue begins to approach 15-20% of total revenue, the stock deserves a higher valuation multiple, similar to U.S. tech giants.
- Watch the Meituan War: Any news of a "truce" in the delivery price war is an immediate buy signal for 9988 HK, as it preserves the cash flow needed to fund their AI ambitions.