So, you’re looking at the 7 day forecast Key West Florida and wondering if you should pack that extra hoodie or just stick to flip-flops. Honestly, January in the Conch Republic is a total wildcard. Most people think it’s a permanent 80-degree paradise, but right now, we’re actually looking at some legitimate "Florida cold" coming through.
If you're landing today, Friday, January 16, 2026, don't expect a sweat-fest. It’s basically the peak of our winter cycle. We’re sitting at 60°F right now with a brisk north wind. It’s gorgeous, yeah, but it’s the kind of weather that makes locals pull out the North Face jackets while tourists are still trying to swim in the hotel pool.
The current breakdown: What’s actually happening
The atmosphere is doing that thing where it can’t decide if it wants to be tropical or temperate. Today is looking sunny with a high of 64°F, which is honestly a bit below the usual January average of 75°F. It’s dry, though. We’ve got 0% chance of rain during the day, so your sunset plans at Mallory Square are safe—just bring a windbreaker because that northeast wind is hitting at 17 mph.
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Here is how the next week is actually shaping up:
- Saturday (Jan 17): Things start to rebound. We’re looking at 72°F and mostly sunny skies. It’s that perfect "not too hot" weather where you can walk Duval Street for hours without needing a shower immediately after.
- Sunday (Jan 18): This is the pivot point. It gets warmer, hitting 73°F, but the wind is going to go absolutely nuts. We’re talking northwest gusts up to 31 mph. If you’re planning on a charter boat or hitting the Dry Tortugas, you might want to check with your captain. That kind of wind makes the Gulf side pretty choppy.
- The Mid-Week Slump: Monday brings another dip back down to 64°F. It’s a bit of a yo-yo. By Tuesday and Wednesday, we’re climbing back into the low 70s.
- Thursday (Jan 22): The humidity starts creeping back in. We’re looking at a high of 76°F but with a chance of showers and even some scattered thunderstorms at night.
Why the wind matters more than the temp
In Key West, the temperature is only half the story. The wind is the real boss. When you see a "north" or "northwest" wind in the 7 day forecast Key West Florida, it means a front just pushed through.
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That Sunday wind at 31 mph? That’s not just a breeze; it’s a Small Craft Advisory waiting to happen. If you’re a diver, these north winds can mess with visibility. The sand gets kicked up, and suddenly that crystal-clear water looks a little milky. On the flip side, the northeast wind we're seeing on Tuesday (at 25 mph) usually brings in that beautiful, clear Atlantic water, even if it feels a bit chilly on the skin.
Dealing with the "Cold"
I get it. 64°F sounds like summer to someone coming from Chicago or New York. But 64°F with 52% humidity and a 17 mph wind feels... different. It's a damp cold that gets into your bones if you’re just wearing a t-shirt.
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Basically, the "Key West Uniform" for this week is layers. You’ll want a light long-sleeve for the mornings when it’s 57°F or 58°F, then shed it by noon.
What to actually do this week
Since the water might be a little "crisp" (the sea temp is hovering around 69-74°F lately), maybe swap the snorkeling for some land-based stuff during the cooler spikes.
- The Hemingway House: Great for a windy day because the lush gardens block a lot of that breeze. Plus, the cats don't care about the wind chill.
- Biking: Honestly, 64°F is the best biking weather. You can traverse the whole island without breaking a sweat.
- The Butterfly Conservatory: If you get actually cold, go in here. It’s climate-controlled to be a tropical rainforest. It's basically a cheat code for heat.
The rain situation
Don't stress the "chance of showers" you see for next Thursday. In the Keys, rain usually happens in these quick, aggressive bursts. You duck into a bar, have one drink, and by the time you're done, the sun is back out. The only exception is when a stationary front sits on us, but this 7-day look shows things moving pretty quickly. We’re mostly looking at 10-20% chances until Thursday night’s 35%.
Actionable Next Steps
If you're heading down this week, here is your move:
- Check the Marine Forecast: If you have boat trips booked for Sunday, call the operator on Saturday afternoon. 31 mph winds are no joke for smaller vessels.
- Pack a Windbreaker: Forget the heavy sweater; you need something that stops the wind. That’s the real enemy this week.
- Sunscreen still matters: The UV index is hitting 5 today and tomorrow. Even if it feels cool, the reflection off the water will fry you before you realize it.
- Book dinner indoors: For Monday and Tuesday nights, you might want an indoor table. Dining "al fresco" is iconic here, but at 58°F with a 25 mph wind, your conch fritters will be cold in three minutes.
Enjoy the "winter" while it lasts. By June, we’ll all be praying for a 64-degree day.