Wisconsin is weird. Not "cheese hat" weird—though that's a thing—but politically weird. In most states, a Supreme Court race is a sleepy affair where you pick between two people in black robes whose names you can’t pronounce. In Wisconsin? It’s a $100 million cage match.
If you’ve been following the 538 Wisconsin Supreme Court coverage or seen the latest data from the PollsAndVotes crew, you know the stakes have shifted from "important" to "existential." We aren't just talking about legal jargon anymore. We’re talking about the fundamental rules of the game: who gets to vote, where the lines are drawn, and whether a 19th-century abortion ban stays in the history books or returns to the doctor's office.
The 2023 Flip and Why 538 Cared
Let’s go back a bit. Before April 2023, conservatives had a 4-3 grip on the court. It had been that way for 15 years. Then Janet Protasiewicz happened. She didn't just win; she stomped. She beat Daniel Kelly by 11 points, which is a lifetime in a state where presidential elections are decided by the population of a small football stadium.
538’s analysis at the time pointed out something huge: the "nationalization" of the local. This wasn't a race about judicial philosophy. It was a referendum on Roe v. Wade. Protasiewicz ran openly on her "values," calling the state's legislative maps "rigged." Conservatives screamed about judicial ethics, but the voters didn't care. They wanted a firewall.
When she took her seat in August 2023, the world changed in Madison.
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- Redistricting: The court tossed the old legislative maps.
- Abortion: The path was cleared to challenge the 1849 ban.
- Voting Rights: Drop boxes came back into the conversation.
The $100 Million Milestone in 2025
You’d think after 2023, everyone would take a breather. Nope. 2025 rolled around and basically said, "Hold my beer." The race between liberal Susan Crawford and conservative Brad Schimel became the most expensive judicial election in U.S. history.
Honestly, the numbers are stupid. We’re talking over $100 million. To put that in perspective, you could buy a decent fleet of private jets for that, or just blanket every TV in Milwaukee with ads of people shouting at each other. Elon Musk dropped $25 million alone to help Schimel.
Crawford won by about 10 points. The 538 Wisconsin Supreme Court trend lines show a massive geographic shift. Liberals are no longer just winning Milwaukee and Madison; they are running up the score so high in Dane County that the "red" rural areas can't keep up. Crawford’s victory secured a liberal majority until at least 2028.
What Happened to the Abortion Ban?
On July 2, 2025, the court did exactly what everyone expected. In a 4-3 ruling (Kaul v. Urmanski), they effectively killed the 1849 ban. Justice Rebecca Dallet wrote that more recent laws basically "repealed" the old one by implication. Conservative Justice Annette Ziegler called it a "jaw-dropping exercise of judicial will."
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Whether you love it or hate it, it’s a perfect example of why these seats are now worth $50 million a pop.
Looking Ahead: The 2026 "Low Stakes" Race
So here we are in 2026. Another year, another election. On April 7, 2026, Wisconsin goes back to the polls to fill the seat of retiring conservative Justice Rebecca Bradley.
This time, the candidates are Maria Lazar (conservative) and Chris Taylor (liberal). But here is the kicker: even if the conservative wins, the liberals keep their 4-3 majority. If the liberal wins, it goes to 5-2.
Because the "majority" isn't technically at stake, some experts—and even the early 538 Wisconsin Supreme Court projections—think the spending might actually decrease. Imagine that. Only $30 million or $40 million instead of $100 million. A bargain, really.
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The Real Power of the 5-2 Split
Why does a 5-2 majority matter if 4-3 already gets the job done? It’s about the "swing" vote. Right now, Justice Brian Hagedorn is the wild card. He’s a conservative who sometimes sides with the liberals on election law (like he did in 2020). If the court moves to 5-2, the liberal wing doesn't need to woo anyone. They can move faster and more decisively on:
- Labor Laws: Revisiting Act 10 and union rights.
- Environmental Regs: Overturning limits on the DNR.
- The Governor’s Power: Strengthening Tony Evers' (or whoever follows him) ability to use the partial veto.
Making Sense of the Data
If you’re looking at the 538 Wisconsin Supreme Court data, don't just look at the top-line numbers. Look at the "enthusiasm gap." In 2025, the voters who showed up for the spring court race were essentially the same people who backed Kamala Harris in 2024. The liberal base in Wisconsin has figured out that the Supreme Court is where the "real" law gets made, and they are treats these April elections like it's the Fourth of July.
Actionable Insights for the 2026 Cycle:
- Check your registration now. Wisconsin allows same-day registration, but doing it early saves you a headache at the polls on April 7.
- Watch the "independent" spending. If groups like A Better Wisconsin Together or the Uihlein-backed PACs start dumping money into the Lazar/Taylor race in February, it means they see a path to a 5-2 supermajority (or a defensive stand).
- Focus on the Court of Appeals. Both Lazar and Taylor come from the appellate level. Their past rulings on mundane things like zoning or insurance are the best indicators of how they’ll handle the big stuff.
The era of the "nonpartisan" Wisconsin Supreme Court is dead. It’s been replaced by a high-octane political machine that 538 and other data junkies will be dissecting for years. If you live in Wisconsin, get used to the noise. It’s not going away.