You’ve probably seen the gray creeping into the Jersey sky this morning. Honestly, it’s that classic Garden State winter vibe where you aren't quite sure if you need a heavy parka or just a rain shell. But if you’re looking at the 5 day weather NJ forecast right now, things are about to get a lot more interesting than just a bit of January gloom.
We are currently sitting in a bit of a weather sandwich. As of Saturday morning, January 17, it’s about 34°F out there, but with the south wind, it feels more like 28°F. Basically, it’s cold enough to bite, but the real story is what's coming over the next few hours and how the rest of the week is going to dive-bomb into some serious "stay inside" territory.
The Saturday Slush and Sunday’s Shift
Today is kinda messy. We’re looking at a 75% chance of precipitation during the day, which is expected to be a tricky mix of rain and snow. Highs will hit 41°F, which usually means the snow won't stick well on the roads, but the National Weather Service is already warning about slippery conditions, especially in spots like Morristown and up through Sussex County.
The southwest wind is kicking at about 10 mph. It’s not a gale, but it’s enough to keep that damp cold localized. Tonight, the temperature drops to 31°F, and the clouds will just hang there like a heavy blanket.
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Sunday, January 18, brings the "real" winter feel. We’re looking at a high of 36°F with snow showers likely in the morning. What's most important to note for your Monday commute is that Sunday night the floor drops out. We’re talking a low of 19°F. That means anything that melted during the Saturday "warm" spell is going to turn into a sheet of glass.
Tracking the Mid-Week Deep Freeze
If you think Sunday night is cold, Tuesday is going to be a total reality check. While Monday (MLK Day) stays somewhat reasonable with a sunny high of 35°F, the mercury takes a massive hit right after.
Tuesday, January 20, is going to be the coldest day of this stretch. We are looking at:
- A daytime high that struggles to reach 24°F.
- Overnight lows plummeting to 14°F.
- Sharp west winds at 13 mph making it feel much colder.
This isn't just "chilly." This is the kind of cold where you need to check on your outdoor pipes and make sure the dog isn't out for more than a quick minute. The humidity is going to drop to around 42%, so expect that dry, stinging air that makes your skin feel like paper.
Why the 5 Day Weather NJ Forecast is Fickle
Jersey weather is notoriously hard to pin down because we’re a "battleground" state. Meteorologists like Joe Martucci often point out that a few miles can be the difference between a foot of snow and a rainy afternoon. We have the Atlantic Ocean on one side and the Appalachian foothills on the other.
Right now, we are dealing with a weak La Niña pattern. Normally, that would mean a milder winter, but this January has been characterized by "big swings." We go from 41 degrees today to 14 degrees by Tuesday night. It’s a rollercoaster.
Looking Toward Wednesday
By Wednesday, January 21, the sun starts to do a little more work. We’ll see partly sunny skies and the high should bounce back up to 36°F. However, don't let the sun fool you. The low will still hover around 14°F at night.
It’s a dry stretch of weather following the Saturday/Sunday system, which is good news for anyone tired of shoveling. But the thermal hit to your heating bill is going to be the main takeaway for the mid-week.
What you should do right now:
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- Salt your walkways today. The Saturday rain-to-snow transition is a prime recipe for black ice when Sunday’s freeze hits.
- Check your antifreeze. If your car is parked outside, Tuesday's 14-degree low is the type of temperature that exposes a weak battery or low fluids.
- Layer up for Tuesday. If you’re commuting or heading to work, the wind chill on Tuesday morning will likely be in the single digits.
Winter in New Jersey is rarely consistent, but this 5-day stretch is a textbook example of why you can't trust a single warm afternoon. Keep the heavy coat at the front of the closet. You're going to need it by Tuesday.