Honestly, if you’re living in Phoenix right now, you’ve basically won the geographic lottery. While the rest of the country is digging out of snow or dealing with that bone-chilling dampness that gets into your joints, the Valley is sitting pretty. We are looking at a stretch of weather that reminds you why people actually move here.
It’s January 17, 2026. The current temperature is a crisp 49°F as the sun starts to peek over the Superstitions. But don't let that morning chill fool you.
The 5 day Phoenix weather forecast is looking remarkably consistent, which is exactly what you want when you’re planning a weekend hike at Camelback or just trying to figure out if you need a heavy coat for dinner. Spoilers: You probably don't.
The Breakdown: What to Expect Through Wednesday
It’s sunny. It’s dry. It’s classic Arizona.
Today, Saturday, January 17, we’re hitting a high of 76°F. That is nearly ten degrees above the historical average for this time of year. Usually, we expect a normal high of 66°F, but 2026 is leaning into that "warmer than usual" trend the National Weather Service predicted back in the fall. The sky is going to be clear with an east wind barely moving at 4 mph. It’s the kind of day where the UV index hits a 3, so if you’re out at the Phoenix Zoo or hitting the trails, you still need the sunscreen.
Tonight will dip back down to 48°F. Typical desert swings.
Tomorrow, Sunday, January 18, brings a few more clouds. We’re calling it "partly sunny" with the same high of 76°F. You might see the sky turn a bit grey in the afternoon, but the chance of rain is a measly 5%. Even at night, when it turns mostly cloudy, the low stays at a manageable 50°F.
The Mid-Week Shift
By Monday, things get a little moodier.
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- Monday, Jan 19: Mostly cloudy with a high of 74°F. This is actually the "coolest" day of the bunch. There's a 10% chance of a stray shower during the day, but it’s mostly just atmosphere. Low of 50°F.
- Tuesday, Jan 20: The clouds clear out completely. We’re back to full sun and a high of 76°F. Winds will stay light, shifting to the northeast at 3 mph.
- Wednesday, Jan 21: Keeping the streak alive at 75°F. A few clouds might drift back in by evening, but your outdoor plans are safe.
Why Is It So Warm Right Now?
You might be wondering why we’re hitting the mid-70s when the historical record says we should be shivering in the 60s. Sean Benedict and the team over at the National Weather Service (NWS) Phoenix office have been tracking the transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral conditions this winter.
Basically, when we’re in this neutral phase, we often get these ridges of high pressure that just park themselves over the Southwest. It acts like a giant invisible dome, blocking the colder, wetter storms from the Pacific and keeping us in this "perpetual spring" loop.
It's a stark contrast to years like 1919, where the record low for January hit a terrifying 24°F. Or even 2015, where the high struggled to get past 46°F. Compared to that, a week of 75-degree afternoons feels like a gift.
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Dealing with the Dryness
The humidity today is sitting at 24%, and it’s going to hover between 21% and 27% all week. For those of us living here, that means your skin is going to feel it.
Even though the 5 day Phoenix weather forecast shows almost zero chance of rain, that "dry heat" (yes, even in winter) is deceptive. You’re losing moisture through your skin way faster than you realize. If you’re visiting from the Midwest or the Coast, you’ll notice you’re thirstier than usual. Drink the water. Then drink some more.
Actionable Tips for the Week Ahead
Don't let the "sunny" label make you lazy. Here is how to actually handle this specific forecast:
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- The 20-Degree Rule: You will experience a 25 to 30-degree swing between 6:00 AM and 3:00 PM. Dress in layers. A light puffer or a hoodie is mandatory for the morning, but you’ll want a t-shirt underneath by lunchtime.
- Hydration is Non-Negotiable: With humidity dropping to 21% on Sunday, your body will dehydrate before you feel sweaty. Carry a liter of water even for short walks.
- After-Hours Planning: Since temperatures drop to 50°F the moment the sun goes behind the mountains, if you’re booking an outdoor patio for dinner, make sure they have space heaters or bring a medium-weight jacket.
- Trail Times: Tuesday and Wednesday will be the best days for hiking. The air will be clear, the sun will be out, and the light wind will keep the stagnant "valley smog" (the brown cloud) at bay.
The Valley is currently in that sweet spot where the weather is a feature, not a bug. Enjoy the 76-degree afternoons while they last, because we all know what's coming in July.
Check your tire pressure if you're heading out for a road trip this weekend; these temperature swings can cause those sensors to go haywire even when your tires are fine. Stay hydrated and get outside before the clouds roll back in on Monday.