Honestly, if you were hoping to finally break out that heavy puffer jacket you bought on sale last year, I’ve got some bad news. Phoenix is currently in the middle of a weather stretch that feels more like early April than mid-January. We’re talking about a 30 day forecast phoenix residents might find a bit surreal, especially with temperatures flirting with the 80s while the rest of the country is digging out of snowbanks.
It’s weird.
One day you’re waking up to a crisp 48 degrees, and by lunchtime, you’re looking for a patio with a misting system because it hit 79. That’s exactly what happened this past Thursday at Sky Harbor. We almost broke a record. We’re currently sitting in the fourth-warmest January ever recorded here, with an average temperature hovering around 60.1 degrees.
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What’s Actually Happening Over the Next Month?
The short answer? More of the same, but with a few plot twists.
Right now, we are under the thumb of a massive high-pressure system—what meteorologists call a Rex block. Basically, a big ridge of warm air is parked over the West Coast, acting like a giant umbrella that’s pushing all the cold, juicy storm systems way north into Canada or east toward the Plains.
- Late January: Expect the "heat" to stay dialed up. Highs will likely bounce between 72 and 78 degrees through the 25th.
- The "Cool" Down: Around the last week of January, we might see a dip. I use that term loosely. We're talking low 70s or high 60s.
- February Outlook: The Climate Prediction Center is pointing toward a 75% chance that our current La Niña setup will transition into a "neutral" phase. This usually means things stay dry, but we might get a stray shower toward the middle of February.
If you’re planning a hike Camelback or Piestewa Peak, do it now. Seriously. The UV index is creeping up to a 3 or 4, which doesn’t sound like much, but that desert sun hits different when the air is this dry. Humidity is bottoming out at 15% some afternoons. Your skin is going to feel like parchment paper if you aren't chugging water.
30 day forecast phoenix: The Rain Problem
Everyone asks: "Is it ever going to rain?"
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Winter rain is actually more important for Arizona than the summer monsoons. It’s what keeps the wildfires at bay in the spring. But this year? It’s been bone dry. National Weather Service meteorologist Sean Benedict noted recently that while we usually get over two inches of rain between January and March, we’re currently lagging.
There is a tiny glimmer of hope for the weekend of January 24-25. Some ensemble models show a "closed low" pressure system trying to break through that West Coast ridge. If it wins the fight, we might get a few sprinkles. If it loses, we’re looking at another two weeks of nothing but dust and blue skies.
Why the "Expert" Predictions Sometimes Fail
You’ve probably seen the Old Farmer’s Almanac or long-range apps predicting snow in the desert.
Take those with a massive grain of salt. Predicting weather in the Sonoran Desert 30 days out is like trying to guess what a cat will do next. The interaction between the Pacific sea surface temperatures and the jet stream is incredibly fickle. Even the pros at the NWS Phoenix office are cautious, often labeling anything past day seven as "low confidence."
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Survival Tips for an Unseasonably Warm Winter
Since we aren't getting a "real" winter, you have to pivot.
- Mulch your plants now. Since it's warmer, your citrus trees and desert shrubs are going to start thinking it's spring. They'll start pushing new growth early. If a random frost hits in early February (which can still happen!), that new growth will turn to mush.
- Adjust your irrigation. Most people set their timers in November and forget them. With 80-degree days, your lawn or desert plants might actually need a slightly longer drink than they did in December.
- Watch the "High Country." If you're heading to Flagstaff, don't let the Phoenix 30-day forecast fool you. While we're basking in 75 degrees, the Mogollon Rim is still seeing nights in the teens. The contrast is enough to give you a cold if you aren't layering up.
The Verdict on February
As we move into the tail end of this 30-day window, expect February to start warm. Historically, February 1st sees a high of 69, but 2026 is trending about 5 to 8 degrees above normal. We’ll likely see more 75-degree days than 65-degree days. It’s great for the golf tournaments and outdoor festivals, but a bit concerning for the local water table.
Keep an eye on the Friday morning Area Forecast Discussions from the NWS. They usually give the most "no-nonsense" look at whether a storm is actually brewing or if it’s just more sunshine on the horizon.
Next Steps for You:
Check your irrigation timer this weekend to ensure your landscaping isn't drying out during this 80-degree spike. If you're planning outdoor events for early February, keep a light jacket on hand for the evenings, as the "desert effect" will still drop temperatures by 30 degrees the moment the sun goes down.