So, you’re looking at a 30 day forecast for key west florida and wondering if you should pack that extra sweater or just a few more bottles of sunscreen. Honestly, planning a month out for the southernmost point in the U.S. is kinda like trying to predict which chicken is going to cross Duval Street first. You think you know, but the island has its own plans.
Today is January 14, 2026. If you’re standing on the corner of Whitehead and Southard right now, it’s about 70°F. It feels a bit warmer—around 75°F—mostly because the humidity is sitting at a thick 96%. We’ve got a west wind at 5 mph and a sky that's mostly cloudy. It's that classic tropical winter morning where the air feels like a damp, warm hug.
The Reality of January in the Conch Republic
Most people look at a long-range forecast and panic when they see "rain" icons. Don't. In Key West, especially during the dry season (which we’re in right now), rain usually means a ten-minute shower that clears up before you can even finish a slice of key lime pie.
For the rest of today, January 14, we’re looking at a high of 75°F and a low of 70°F. It’ll stay partly sunny during the day with only a 20% chance of rain. Tonight, those clouds thicken up a bit, and the chance of a shower jumps to 35%. The wind is going to kick up too, coming from the west at about 13 mph.
If you're tracking the next few weeks, here is the "insider" view of what to actually expect.
Temperature Trends: Not Too Hot, Not Too Cold
Usually, January and February are the "coldest" months here. I use quotes because the average high is 74°F to 75°F.
- Average Highs: You’ll consistently see 74°F to 77°F.
- Average Lows: It rarely drops below 65°F.
- Water Temps: The ocean is hovering around 69°F to 70°F. If you're from Michigan, it's a bathtub. If you're a local, it's "too cold to swim without a wetsuit."
The 30-Day Outlook for Late January and Early February
Looking ahead at the next 30 days, we're moving into the heart of the "heavenly" season. The humidity usually starts to dip toward the end of the month.
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Historically, the coldest day of the year in Key West is January 18. Even then, "cold" means a high of 74°F. As we roll into February, temperatures start a slow climb, gaining about two degrees on average by the end of the month. Basically, your 30-day window is the sweet spot for avoiding the soul-crushing heat of August while escaping the actual winter happening up north.
Why the Forecast Matters for Your Events
You probably aren't just coming for the clouds. There is a massive lineup of stuff happening over the next 30 days that the weather will definitely play a role in.
- Key West Half Marathon & RunFest (Jan 17-18): Expect near-perfect running weather. Morning lows in the high 60s are great for a race, though that 86% humidity we’re seeing today might make the 7:00 AM start feel a little sticky.
- Mile 0 Fest (Jan 27-31): This is the big one for Red Dirt and Americana fans. By late January, we usually see clear skies about 70% of the time. It’s perfect for the outdoor stages at Truman Waterfront Park.
- Key West Food & Wine Festival (Jan 28 - Feb 1): You’ll want to be outside for this. The forecast usually holds steady with minimal rain (13% chance of a "wet day" by the end of January).
Mistakes People Make With the 30 Day Forecast
The biggest mistake? Trusting a "specific" forecast for a day three weeks from now.
Meteorology isn't magic. In the Keys, the weather is driven by the jet stream dipping south and the temperature of the Gulf Stream. A "cold front" here just means the humidity drops and everyone puts on a light jacket because it's 62°F at night.
Also, ignore the "mostly cloudy" label. Key West gets about 23 days of sunshine in January. Even on a cloudy day, the UV index hits 4 or 5—enough to burn you if you're out on a boat all afternoon.
Survival Tips for the Next 30 Days
- The Wind is the Real Boss: Pay more attention to wind speed than rain. If it’s blowing 15-20 mph from the East, the Atlantic side is going to be choppy. If you're planning a snorkel trip to the reef, look for those 5-10 mph days like we have today.
- Pack for "Island Layers": You need a t-shirt for 2:00 PM and a light hoodie for 8:00 PM when the breeze kicks up at Mallory Square.
- Humidity is the Variable: If the dew point drops, 75°F feels crisp and amazing. If it stays high like it is this morning (humidity 96%), it feels much warmer.
Basically, the next 30 days in Key West are going to be some of the best weather in the country. It’s dry, it’s temperate, and the chances of a "washout" day are incredibly low.
Actionable Next Steps:
Check the wind direction 24 hours before any boat charters; a west wind like today’s 5 mph breeze makes the Gulf side like glass, but an increase to 13 mph tonight means tomorrow might be a bit bumpier for those headin' out to the Dry Tortugas.