It is only early 2026, yet the political machine is already humming at a frequency that suggests 2028 is right around the corner. Honestly, it feels like we just finished one cycle before the donor dinners and "exploratory" trips to New Hampshire started up again. You've probably seen the headlines. Some names are obvious—the heavy hitters who never really left the stage—while others are quiet governors hoping you’ll notice their budget surpluses.
The list of 2028 potential presidential candidates is currently a mix of high-stakes incumbents and ambitious outsiders trying to find a lane in a very crowded field. On the Republican side, the shadow of the current administration looms large. For Democrats, it’s a wide-open scramble to redefine the party’s identity after 2024.
The Republican Frontrunners: Is it JD Vance’s to Lose?
If you look at the recent straw polls from events like AmericaFest or the University of New Hampshire’s October 2025 survey, one name stands head and shoulders above the rest: JD Vance. The Vice President currently holds a massive lead among the GOP base. In that New Hampshire poll, he cleared 51% of the preferred vote, while his closest "rival," Nikki Haley, sat way back at 9%.
Vance has something the others don't—the "Trump mantle." He’s basically become the heir apparent for the MAGA movement. But being the frontrunner this early is a double-edged sword. You're the biggest target.
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The Rest of the GOP Pack
Behind Vance, the field gets a bit more interesting, if a lot more fractured.
- Marco Rubio: The Secretary of State is frequently mentioned as a "steady hand" alternative. While he’s publicly stated that Vance is the likely nominee, his own favorables remain high, particularly among conservatives who want a blend of traditional foreign policy and modern populism.
- Ron DeSantis: Things have been a bit rough for the Florida Governor lately. Some polls, like the Emerson College survey from late 2025, have seen his support dip as low as 2%. However, he still pulls double digits in other surveys, especially with "moderate" or "liberal" Republicans who aren't fully sold on the Vance direction.
- Tulsi Gabbard: Now serving as the National Intelligence Director, she’s become a dark horse favorite. She actually outpaced Rubio in some early New Hampshire polling, showing that her cross-over appeal is still a factor.
The Democratic Scramble: Governors vs. The Beltway
The Democratic side is much more of a "choose your own adventure" situation right now. There isn't a singular "heir" the way Vance occupies the GOP space. Instead, we have a fascinating tension between high-profile West Coast progressives and Rust Belt pragmatists.
Gavin Newsom is effectively the man to watch. He’s already been making the rounds on cable news, recently telling CBS News that he’d be "lying" if he said he wasn't considering a 2028 run. His strategy is clear: position himself as the "anti-Trump" fighter. He’s been vocal about everything from California’s driver’s license fatal crash rates—which he notes are 40% lower than the national average—to challenging federal funding cuts.
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The "Blue Wall" Defenders
While Newsom has the flash, Josh Shapiro has the math. The Pennsylvania Governor is playing a long game. He’s focusing on flipping congressional seats in his home state for the 2026 midterms. If he can prove he owns Pennsylvania, a "must-win" state, his stock among donors will skyrocket. He often tells interviewers like Bill Maher that he’s focused on "balancing budgets" in the real world, a classic move to contrast himself with the "Beltway" types.
Then there’s Pete Buttigieg. Despite being out of the Cabinet, he remains a darling of the primary base. In the October 2025 Granite State Poll, he actually led Newsom 19% to 15%. People like his polish. They like his ability to go into "hostile" media environments and hold his own.
Surprising Names and Wildcards
Don't count out Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. She holds a solid 14% in early primary polling and dominates the "progressive" and "socialist" wings of the party. If the primary becomes a battle for the party's soul, she is the anchor of the left.
What Most People Get Wrong About 2028
Everyone looks at the polls today and thinks they’re looking at the final ballot. They aren't.
Early polling is mostly just a name-recognition contest.
Take a look at 2016 or even 2020. At this point in those cycles, the eventual winners weren't always the ones leading the pack. The biggest mistake is ignoring the "governor's advantage." While DC politicians are fighting over soundbites, governors like Andy Beshear in Kentucky or Gretchen Whitmer in Michigan are building records of actually running things.
The 2026 midterms will be the first real "stress test" for these 2028 potential presidential candidates.
If Shapiro fails to deliver Pennsylvania, his 2028 hopes might vanish before 2027 even starts.
If Newsom can't fix California’s $18 billion budget gap, his "California Success" narrative becomes a liability.
Critical Issues Shaping the Race
- The Economy: It's the "forever issue." Candidates like JB Pritzker, who has massive personal wealth and a business background, might find a lane if voters are feeling a post-inflation squeeze.
- Age and Vitality: With Vance at 41 and Shapiro at 52, there is a clear push for a "generational shift." This might make it harder for older veterans like Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren to make one last go of it.
- The "Trump Factor": For Republicans, it’s about whether you are "Trump-enough." For Democrats, it’s about who can best stand up to him.
Actionable Insights for Following the 2028 Race
If you want to keep a pulse on who is actually moving the needle, stop looking at national polls. They're too broad.
- Watch the 2026 Midterm Endorsements: See which potential 2028 candidates are traveling to help others. This is how they build the "political chits" they’ll need to cash in later.
- Follow the Fundraising: OpenSecrets is your friend here. Candidates who are building massive "leadership PACs" right now are the ones who are serious.
- Monitor State Budgets: For governors like Newsom and Shapiro, their performance at home is their resume. A fiscal crisis in their home state is a campaign-killer.
- Look at "Net Favorability": It’s not about who has the most supporters; it’s about who has the fewest "hard-no" voters. In the GOP, Vance has a +64 net favorability. That is a massive wall for anyone else to climb over.
The road to 2028 is long, and honestly, it’s probably going to get a lot weirder before it gets clearer. Keep an eye on the midterms—that's when the "shadow campaign" finally steps into the light.
To stay ahead of the curve, you should track the official FEC filings for 2028 committees, as several "placeholder" candidates have already begun the paperwork process to start raising early funds.