The 2026 NFL Draft landscape just shifted. Big time. With the Las Vegas Raiders officially locked into the No. 1 overall pick as of mid-January 2026, the speculation is basically a furnace. Everyone wants to know if they’ll take the safe bet or swing for the fences.
Draft season is weird. It’s this mix of cold analytics and pure, unadulterated hope. You’ve got scouts living in Marriott Courtyards and fans screaming at their TVs because a 20-year-old kid ran a 4.4 instead of a 4.3.
Honestly, the 2026 projected NFL draft looks a lot different than we thought it would a year ago. Remember when we thought the quarterback class was thin? Now we’re looking at a group that has Mel Kiper Jr. and Todd McShay debating until they're blue in the face.
The Fernando Mendoza Factor: Is He the Real No. 1?
If you haven't been watching Indiana football, you've been missing out. Fernando Mendoza, the Cal transfer who basically lit the Big Ten on fire, is currently the darling of the 2026 projected NFL draft. He’s got that "it" factor. He just won the Heisman. You can't ignore 2,980 yards and 33 touchdowns against just six picks in the hardest conference in the country.
NFL scouts love his frame. He's a big dude with a live arm. But it’s the processing that gets the nerds excited. He works through progressions like a ten-year vet.
But here is the catch.
Dan Orlovsky is out here telling anyone who will listen that if Arch Manning had declared, Mendoza would be a distant second. Orlovsky called Manning a "runaway No. 1 pick" on the Dan Patrick Show. But Arch is staying at Texas. He’s going back for his junior year to "refine his game," according to his dad, Cooper Manning.
So, Mendoza is the guy. For now.
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The "Special 63": Underclassmen Who Actually Declared
On January 15, 2026, the NFL dropped the official list. 63 underclassmen are leaving school early. That’s a bit of a drop from last year, probably because NIL money is keeping guys in school longer. Why go be a third-round pick for a $900k salary when you can make $1.2 million as a "student" in Columbus or Austin?
Key Names to Watch:
- Caleb Downs (S, Ohio State): The best defensive back in the country. Period.
- Carnell Tate (WR, Ohio State): He’s been overshadowed by Jeremiah Smith, but Tate is a first-round lock.
- Jeremiyah Love (RB, Notre Dame): A total lightning bolt in the open field.
- Rueben Bain Jr. (EDGE, Miami): The man is a literal battering ram.
Bain is fascinating. He isn't the tallest edge rusher, but his hand usage is elite. PFF has him as their No. 1 overall prospect for a reason. He’s got that twitchy power that makes NFL left tackles look like they’re wearing roller skates.
The Quarterback Carousel: Beyond the Top Pick
The 2026 class has some serious depth at the most important position. It isn't just Mendoza.
Ty Simpson over at Alabama is a scout's dream. He’s got the mobility and that "escapability" that everyone wants in the modern NFL. He threw for over 3,200 yards this season. Mel Kiper has him as the No. 3 QB, mostly because he had to carry a Bama offense that didn't have much of a run game.
Then you have Dante Moore. He’s back at Oregon after some transfer portal drama earlier in his career, and he finally looks comfortable. He’s Kiper’s No. 1 QB.
Wait.
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Moore over Mendoza? Yeah. Kiper is betting on the upside. Moore has a 72.5% completion rate. That’s insane. He’s a dual-threat guy who finally learned how to protect the football.
Why Defense Still Wins Drafts
While everyone talks about the QBs, the 2026 projected NFL draft might actually be remembered for its defensive line class.
The Miami Hurricanes are basically an NFL factory right now. Between Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor (who led the ACC with 10.5 sacks), that defensive front is terrifying. Mesidor is 280 pounds of pure problem.
And don't sleep on the interior guys.
- Peter Woods (Clemson)
- Christen Miller (Georgia)
- Ahmad Moten Sr. (Miami)
Woods is a name you’ll hear constantly. Clemson had a rough 2025 season, but Woods is the type of player you build a defense around. He’s massive, but he moves like a linebacker.
The Wide Receiver Room: Who’s After Carnell Tate?
Ohio State is "WRU" for a reason. Carnell Tate is the big name this year, but the class is deep.
Omar Cooper Jr. from Indiana is a guy I’m keeping a close eye on. He’s shiftiness personified. He had a 75-yard rushing touchdown against Ohio State back in 2024 that scouts still talk about. He’s a "yards after catch" monster.
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Then there’s Denzel Boston from Washington and K.C. Concepcion from Texas A&M. Both are early entrants. Boston is that tall, rangy target that every team wants for their young QB.
The "Draft Stocks" That Are Plummeting
Not everyone had a great year. Nico Iamaleava's journey has been... messy. He left Tennessee for UCLA in a move that shocked everyone—rumors of $4 million NIL disputes were everywhere.
At UCLA, he’s been inconsistent. He’s 6-foot-6 and can run a 4.7, but his 12 TDs to 7 INTs ratio isn't screaming "first rounder." NFL Mock Draft Database has him sliding toward the 7th round. Honestly, he should probably stay in school, but he’s already declared. It’s a huge gamble.
How to Prepare for Draft Weekend
The draft is heading to Pittsburgh this year, April 23-25. If you're planning on betting or just following along, you need to watch the Senior Bowl and the Combine.
Next steps for following the 2026 projected NFL draft:
- Track the Pro Days: Keep an eye on the Ohio State and Miami pro days in March. Those will be the most heavily scouted events of the spring.
- Watch the Medicals: Several top prospects, including LSU's Garrett Nussmeier, are coming off injury-plagued seasons. Their medical checks at the Combine will determine if they go on Day 1 or Day 3.
- Monitor the Raiders: With the No. 1 pick, Las Vegas is the pivot point. If they trade down, it could trigger a frenzy for teams desperate for a QB like Mendoza or Moore.
- Ignore the Mock Drafts (for now): Most mocks in January are just guesses. Wait until the Combine measurements come out before taking any "projections" seriously.
The 2026 class is a defensive heavy-hitter with just enough quarterback drama to keep the TV ratings high. Whether it's Mendoza going to Vegas or a defensive stud like Rueben Bain Jr. crashing the top three, the next few months are going to be chaotic.