The air in Los Angeles usually gets weird around mid-January. It’s that specific brand of tension where multimillion-dollar campaigns collide with the cold reality of a secret ballot. Honestly, if you’ve been following the 98th Academy Awards race, you know this year feels different. It’s not just the standard "prestige drama vs. blockbuster" narrative we've seen a thousand times.
We’re looking at a lineup that somehow fits Paul Thomas Anderson, a vampire-fighting Michael B. Jordan, and a singing Ariana Grande into the same conversation.
The official 2026 Oscar nominated movies won't be set in stone until the Academy announces the final list on January 22, but let's be real—the shortlists and the guild awards have already done most of the talking. If you aren't looking at the Producers Guild (PGA) and the Golden Globe winners, you're basically flying blind.
The Heavy Hitters: Why the Frontrunners Aren't Locked In
Everyone is talking about One Battle After Another. It’s the Leonardo DiCaprio and Paul Thomas Anderson collaboration that finally seems to be the "safe" bet. It just cleaned up at the Golden Globes with four wins. But here is the thing: the Oscars love a narrative, and PTA has zero wins despite eleven nominations. Is this the "overdue" year? Maybe.
Then you have Sinners. Ryan Coogler basically reinvented the supernatural thriller, and the Academy is actually paying attention. It’s a box office juggernaut that also has the critical respect usually reserved for black-and-white period pieces.
👉 See also: Christopher McDonald in Lemonade Mouth: Why This Villain Still Works
The Best Picture Tier
- One Battle After Another: The PTA epic. It’s loud, it’s long, and the guilds love it.
- Hamnet: Chloé Zhao back in her Nomadland element. Jessie Buckley is a force here.
- Sinners: The Coogler/Jordan duo doing what they do best.
- Marty Supreme: Josh Safdie going solo. Timothée Chalamet is reportedly "transformative," whatever that means this week.
- Frankenstein: Guillermo del Toro’s childhood dream project. It’s gorgeous, but is it "too genre" for the top prize?
- Sentimental Value: Joachim Trier is the international darling this year.
- The Secret Agent: Brazil’s massive contender that might pull a Parasite.
- Bugonia: Yorgos Lanthimos and Emma Stone again. At this point, it’s a tradition.
- Train Dreams: The quiet, meditative sleeper hit.
- F1: The technical marvel. If Top Gun: Maverick could do it, this can too.
The "Wicked" Problem and Technical Dominance
Let's talk about Wicked: For Good. It’s a massive hit. It’s everywhere. But the Academy is acting... weirdly hesitant. It maxed out on the technical shortlists—Visual Effects, Sound, Makeup, and Hairstyling—but it’s getting snubbed by the big guilds like the SAG and Critics Choice for the top awards.
It's a classic case of "we'll give you the craft awards, but stay out of the Best Picture room." Honestly, it’s a bit of a snub.
Contrast that with F1. It’s basically a lock for Cinematography and Sound. The way they shot those racing sequences makes most action movies look like they were filmed on an iPhone. The technical branch of the Academy usually votes for "the most" movie, and F1 is definitely the most.
What Most People Get Wrong About the Acting Categories
People think Best Actress is a done deal for Jessie Buckley in Hamnet. She won the Globe. She has the momentum. But don't sleep on Renate Reinsve in Sentimental Value or even Rose Byrne in If I Had Legs I'd Kick You.
✨ Don't miss: Christian Bale as Bruce Wayne: Why His Performance Still Holds Up in 2026
The Academy is much more international than it was ten years ago. Like, significantly. About 20% of the voters are now based outside the U.S. This is why Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) is a serious threat to Timothée Chalamet and Leonardo DiCaprio in the Best Actor race. Moura won the Golden Globe for a reason. He’s incredible, and the international bloc of voters knows it.
The Supporting Actor Chaos
This category is a bloodbath. You have:
- Jacob Elordi as the Monster in Frankenstein.
- Paul Mescal in Hamnet.
- Sean Penn and Benicio del Toro both in One Battle After Another.
When you have two actors from the same movie, they often split the vote. That opens a massive door for someone like Stellan Skarsgård to sneak in for Sentimental Value.
The New Kid on the Block: Best Casting
This is the first year the Academy is handing out an Oscar for Best Casting. It’s about time. The favorites? Sinners and One Battle After Another are the frontrunners, mainly because they managed to assemble massive, cohesive ensembles that didn't feel like "stunt casting."
🔗 Read more: Chris Robinson and The Bold and the Beautiful: What Really Happened to Jack Hamilton
The Casting Society (CSA) already nominated Hamnet and Marty Supreme, so expect those to show up on the final Oscar ballot too. It’s a weird category to predict because we’ve never seen how the full Academy votes on it. Will they just vote for the movie with the most famous people? Probably.
Final Insights for Your Ballot
If you're trying to win your Oscar pool or just want to understand why your favorite movie got snubbed, remember that the "shortlists" released in December are the best map we have. If a movie didn't make the shortlist for Sound or Score, it’s likely not a top-tier Best Picture contender. The "big" movies almost always show up in the technical categories first.
Actionable Next Steps:
- Watch the International Contenders: Before January 22, try to find The Secret Agent or It Was Just an Accident. These aren't "fringe" movies anymore; they are the new power players.
- Track the DGA/PGA Winners: The Directors Guild and Producers Guild awards are the most accurate predictors of the eventual Oscar winners. Whoever wins there usually takes the stage in March.
- Don't ignore the technicals: If you see a movie like F1 or Avatar: Fire and Ash sweeping the technical categories, it’s a sign of broad Academy support that often carries over into the "big" categories.
The 98th Academy Awards nominations will be officially announced on Thursday, January 22, 2026. Until then, everything is just very educated guesswork based on the 317 feature films currently in contention.
Check the official Academy screening schedules or your local indie theater’s "Oscar Season" lineup to catch the smaller films like Train Dreams or Sentimental Value before they become impossible to find after the ceremony.