Draft cycles are usually pretty predictable. You get the "Year of the Quarterback" where three guys go in the top five, and then you get the "Drought Year" where everyone is scrambling to find a reason to take a flyer on a project in the second round.
But 2026? This is different. Honestly, it’s a bit of a circus, but the good kind.
We’ve got a mix of blue-blood royalty, transfer portal success stories, and guys who literally came out of nowhere to hijack the Heisman conversation. If you’re an NFL GM looking for a franchise savior, the 2026 NFL quarterback prospects are basically a dream board of diverse archetypes. You want the 6'5" pocket general who processes at light speed? He’s there. You want the "Jayden Daniels-lite" scrambler with a rocket arm? He’s there too.
Let's cut through the noise. Here is what’s actually happening with the guys who will be headlining the 2026 draft.
The "New Big Three" at the Top
For a long time, the draft community was waiting for a clear leader to emerge. By early 2026, a hierarchy has finally solidified, though it’s not exactly who we thought it would be two years ago.
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Fernando Mendoza: The Indiana Cinderella
If you told a Cal fan two years ago that Fernando Mendoza would be the betting favorite for the #1 overall pick, they’d probably ask what you were drinking. But the move to Indiana changed everything. Mendoza is a massive human at 6'5" and 225 pounds. Scouts are drooling over his processing speed.
He doesn't have the strongest arm in the class—he won't win many velocity contests—but he plays "on time." In the NFL, that’s currency. He anticipates windows before they open, and he showed in huge games (like against Ohio State) that he can handle the "crunch time" pressure without blinking. He’s the "high floor" guy that GMs fall in love with when they're tired of drafting projects.
Dante Moore: The Oregon Refinement
Dante Moore’s career has been a rollercoaster. He had a brutal freshman year at UCLA under Chip Kelly, where he looked like he was playing at 2x speed while the world was at 1x. He threw a lot of picks. People wrote him off.
Then he went to Oregon.
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Sitting behind Dillon Gabriel for a year was the best thing that ever happened to him. He’s emerged as arguably the best natural playmaker in the 2026 NFL quarterback prospects group. He has that "effortless" arm talent—flicking the ball 50 yards downfield while falling out of bounds. His 2025 season was a statistical explosion: 3,565 yards and 30 touchdowns. He’s the guy who can create when the play breaks down, which is exactly what the modern NFL requires.
Ty Simpson: The Bama Pedigree
Ty Simpson is the "tools" king. He’s got an elastic arm and a frame that looks like it was built in a lab. While his production at Alabama dipped slightly toward the end of the SEC schedule, his "Big Time Throw" rate remains elite. He’s more of a traditional "pro-style" prospect who can drive the ball into tight man-coverage windows. He’s currently locked in as a top-10 lock for most scouts, even if he doesn't offer the same rushing upside as someone like Moore.
Arch Manning: The Most Debated Man in America
You can't talk about 2026 NFL quarterback prospects without the elephant in the room. Arch Manning.
Is he a first-round pick?
The answer depends on which half of his 2025 tape you watch. Against lower-tier competition, Arch looks like the best player on the planet. He’s got 4.5 speed. He’s burly. He’s essentially Jayden Daniels with a Manning brain. He even caught a touchdown pass this year—the first Texas player to throw, rush, and catch a TD in the same game.
But the "Big Game" consistency is still a question mark. He struggled early against Ohio State and Georgia, looking hesitant in the pocket and reverting to some "side-arm flick" mechanics he picked up from Quinn Ewers. However, his November was legendary. He dismantled Vanderbilt and Texas A&M, showing a level of poise that silenced a lot of the "overhyped" talk.
If he declares, a team will take him in the top five. If he stays another year, he’s the undisputed QB1 for 2027.
The Risers and the "What Happened?" Projects
The middle of this class is crowded. It’s messy.
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- Nico Iamaleava (UCLA): The 6'6" giant with the $1.5 million NIL deal. He’s the ultimate "scout's dream." He runs a 4.75, he’s got a cannon, and he fits the Pittsburgh Steelers' mold perfectly (they've scouted him three times this year). But his 12:7 TD-to-INT ratio is a red flag. He's a third-round talent with first-round physical traits.
- Aidan Chiles (Michigan State): Chiles is the "calculated risk" prospect. He plays for Jonathan Smith and has shown incredible maturity in Big Ten play. He’s got the size (6'3", 225) and the "stones" to make tight throws under pressure. He’s a guy who could sneak into the late first round if he has a strong combine.
- LaNorris Sellers (South Carolina): Man, what a weird year. He entered the season as a darling, but he struggled with accuracy and holding the ball too long. He’s got the physical tools of an All-Pro, but the mental processing just isn't there yet. He might be better off staying in school or hitting the portal again.
What NFL GMs Are Looking For Right Now
The days of just needing a big arm are over. NFL front offices are shifting their evaluation metrics. They don't just want "traits"; they want "operational utility."
- Pressure Management: Can you handle a 42% pressure rate like Aidan Chiles?
- Platform Versatility: Can you throw from multiple arm angles like Dante Moore?
- Processing Speed: Can you work through three reads in 2.4 seconds like Fernando Mendoza?
Actionable Insights for the 2026 Draft Cycle
If you’re a fan or a degenerate gambler looking at 2026 futures, keep these things in mind:
- Watch the Combine 40 times: For guys like Arch Manning and Nico Iamaleava, their "dual-threat" label needs to be backed up by official numbers. If Arch hits a 4.5, his stock becomes untouchable.
- The "Transfer Bump" is real: Look at Mendoza and Moore. The NFL is prioritizing quarterbacks who have seen multiple systems and can adapt quickly.
- Don't ignore the "G5" sleepers: Guys like Brendan Sorsby (Cincinnati) and Sawyer Robertson (Baylor) are bigger than you think and have the frame to survive an NFL season. They are the Day 2 steals of this class.
The 2026 class has depth that 2025 simply lacked. Whether you want the legacy of a Manning or the blue-collar rise of a Mendoza, this draft is going to reshape the league's quarterback hierarchy for the next decade.