Let's be real for a second. If you’re an NFL general manager whose job depends on finding a franchise savior in the 2026 NFL QB class, you probably aren't sleeping much right now.
The vibes are weird.
For the last two years, we were told this specific group of passers would be the "Golden Era." We had names like Arch Manning and Dante Moore—players with five-star pedigrees that felt like sure things since they were sixteen. But as we sit here in January 2026, the picture is a lot messier. Some of the biggest stars just opted to stay in school, others hit the transfer portal for a third time, and the guy who actually won the Heisman wasn't even on the radar eighteen months ago.
It’s chaos.
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The Arch Manning and Dante Moore "Stay in School" Problem
The biggest blow to the 2026 NFL QB class happened just a few days ago. We all expected Arch Manning to follow the family tradition: three years of college, then off to be the No. 1 overall pick. Instead, Arch announced he’s heading back to Austin for the 2026 season. Scouts are torn on this. On one hand, he’s got the 6-foot-4 frame and that lightning-quick release that makes NFL guys drool. On the other, his 2025 season was, honestly, kinda "meh" at times. He finished with a 60.9% completion rate. That’s not elite. One AFC scout told Fox Sports that Manning still looks "erratic," and the tape against top-tier competition shows he still struggles to trust his eyes.
Then there’s Dante Moore.
The Oregon star was arguably the most polished passer in the country this year, throwing for over 3,500 yards and 30 touchdowns. But after a brutal performance in the College Football Playoff semifinal against Indiana—where he turned the ball over three times in the first half—Moore decided he wasn't ready for the league yet. He’s staying in Eugene.
When you lose the two biggest "brand names" in a draft class, the depth chart looks shaky. It basically leaves a massive vacuum at the top of the first round.
The Rise of Fernando Mendoza and the Indiana Revolution
Who is the QB1 now? Surprisingly, it’s Fernando Mendoza.
If you told a casual fan in 2024 that an Indiana Hoosiers quarterback would be the consensus top pick, they’d have laughed you out of the room. But Mendoza is the real deal. He’s 6-foot-5, 225 pounds, and plays with a level of processing speed that just looks different. He didn't just win the Heisman; he dismantled some of the best defenses in the Big Ten.
What makes Mendoza special is his efficiency. While other guys are trying to play "hero ball," Mendoza just takes what the defense gives him. It’s boring in a way that NFL coaches love. He’s currently the only quarterback with a definitive first-round grade from most major outlets, including PFF and Mel Kiper.
The Scouting Hierarchy as it Stands
With Moore and Manning out, the "Tier 2" guys are suddenly under a microscope.
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- Ty Simpson (Alabama): He’s the physical prototype. Mobile, great arm, but he’s still a "traits" guy more than a "results" guy.
- Garrett Nussmeier (LSU): A total gunslinger. He’ll throw a 50-yard touchdown on one play and a soul-crushing interception on the next. NFL teams are terrified of the inconsistency, but the ceiling is sky-high.
- John Mateer (Oklahoma): A late riser who looked great after transferring, though a hand injury late in the season has teams worried about his long-term durability.
- Carson Beck (Miami): The "old man" of the group. He’s been in college for six years. He’s safe, but does he have a high enough ceiling to be a franchise starter?
Why This Class is So Polarizing
Honestly, the 2026 NFL QB class is a victim of the NIL era.
Back in the day, if you were a projected first-round pick, you left. You didn't risk an injury for free. Now? With guys making millions in college, they can afford to stay and polish their game. That’s exactly what we’re seeing with Moore and Manning. They don't need the NFL paycheck yet, so they’re waiting until they feel 100% prepared to be "The Man" in a pro locker room.
This leaves the 2026 draft in a weird spot.
There’s a lot of "project" talent. Take Malachi Nelson, for example. He was the No. 1 recruit in the country once. Since then, he’s been at USC, Boise State, and UTEP. Now he’s transferring to Syracuse for the 2026 season. He has the talent, but the resume is a jigsaw puzzle with missing pieces.
What NFL Teams Should Do Next
If you’re a team like the New York Jets or the Arizona Cardinals—teams that desperately need a long-term solution under center—the strategy for this draft has to shift. You can't just bank on "potential" anymore because the most "ready" prospects aren't coming out.
- Prioritize the "Safe" Veteran: If you can't get Mendoza, looking at a guy like Carson Beck or Drew Allar (if he declares) might be the smarter play. They’ve seen every blitz imaginable.
- The "Traits" Gamble: If you have a stable coaching staff, taking a swing on Ty Simpson or even a dual-threat like Taylen Green makes sense. You’re drafting the athlete and hoping you can teach the quarterback part later.
- Wait for 2027: This is the nuclear option. With Manning and Moore returning to school, the 2027 class is already looking like a monster. Some teams might just trade back, stockpile picks, and pray they can land Arch a year later.
The 2026 NFL QB class is a reminder that the draft isn't a science. It's a gamble. And right now, the house seems to have the edge.
If you're tracking these prospects for your dynasty fantasy team or just following your NFL team's needs, keep a close eye on the medical reports coming out of the Senior Bowl. With so many of these guys having "shaky" tape, the interviews and physicals are going to carry more weight than ever before. Watch the movement of teams in the top 10—if they start trading down, it tells you everything you need to know about how they really feel regarding this year's signal-callers.